US dollar posts sixth consecutive monthly decline; metals generally fall, with LME zinc, alumina, and stainless steel leading the declines; coking coal drops nearly 2% [overnight market]

SMM reported on July 1:

Metals market:

Overnight, domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE tin down 0.42%. SHFE copper rose 0.01%, SHFE nickel fell 0.51%, SHFE lead increased 0.15%, SHFE aluminum gained 0.19%, and SHFE zinc dropped 0.31%. Additionally, alumina's most-traded futures fell 1.44%, while cast aluminum's main contract rose 0.1%.

Overnight, the ferrous metals series all fell: iron ore declined 0.63%, stainless steel dropped 1.26%, rebar fell 0.73%, and HRC decreased 0.61%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 1.84%, and coke declined 0.88%.

Overseas metals markets saw LME base metals generally decline. LME copper remained flat at $9,878/mt, LME aluminum rose 0.1%, LME lead fell 0.12%, LME zinc dropped 1.37%, LME tin declined 0.04%, and LME nickel fell 0.79%.

Precious metals: COMEX gold rose 0.83%, while COMEX silver fell 0.11%. Overnight, SHFE gold gained 0.54%, and SHFE silver increased 0.1%. Citi analysts stated in a report that they expect gold prices to consolidate between $3,100-3,500/mt in Q3 this year, noting the 4,500/mt peak in late April may represent the upper bound as market shortages approach their apex.

As of 07:06 on July 1, overnight closing prices

》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard

Macro front

Domestic updates:

[SASAC: China achieves breakthroughs in key technologies for high-end non-ferrous metals materials] According to the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), China's first "High-end Non-ferrous Metals Materials Innovation Consortium" released its annual work report. The report reveals the consortium has established 26 research teams, making breakthroughs in coordinating major national tasks. It highlights significant progress in supporting critical state missions across aerospace, electronic information, automotive, maritime, and other sectors, including breakthroughs in eight common key technologies such as C919 aircraft aluminum alloy residual stress control, resolving 18 "bottleneck" technologies, and winning one Second Prize of the National Science and Technology Progress Award and one First Prize for Defense Science and Technology in the non-ferrous metals field.

[MOFCOM: Continuation of anti-dumping duties on stainless steel billets and hot-rolled plates/coils imported from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for five years] In accordance with Article 50 of the Anti-dumping Regulations, the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) proposed continuing anti-dumping measures to the State Council Tariff Commission based on investigation findings. The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council, upon recommendation from the Ministry of Commerce, has decided to continue imposing anti-dumping duties on imports of stainless steel billets and hot-rolled stainless steel plates/coils originating from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for a five-year period starting July 1, 2025.》Click for details

[China Securities Industry Association Holds 2025 Q2 Chief Economist Regular Meeting for Securities and Fund Industry]The China Securities Industry Association organized the 2025 Q2 chief economist regular meeting for the securities and fund industry on June 27, 2025, discussing themes including domestic and overseas economic outlook for H2 2025 and the impact of new global industry chain/supply chain trends on capital markets. Survey results from the association's Chief Economist Committee on Q3 2025 economic forecasts indicate:Over 70% of chief economists anticipate YoY growth rate increases for CPI, PPI, and fixed-asset investment in Q3.Participating experts recommended strengthening national subsidy policies, activating consumption scenarios, and driving down real interest rates. They noted that global industry chains and supply chains are exhibiting "nearshoring," "reshoring," and "decentralization" characteristics, with China and Europe/US expected to form parallel systems for high-end core industry chains while maintaining intersecting low-value-added basic industry chains. Experts advised enhancing policy coordination to channel more medium and long-term funds into supply chain-related sectors, stabilize market expectations, bolster confidence, and support enterprise development. (Financelink)

US Dollar Update:

The US dollar index fell 0.5% overnight to close at 96.77, marking its sixth consecutive monthly decline. The index's H1 2025 decline reached 10.8%, representing the worst H1 performance since the 1970s, amid market concerns over rising US government deficits and trade agreement uncertainties with major economies. US Senate Republicans aim to pass comprehensive tax cut and spending legislation despite intra-party disagreements over the $3.3 trillion debt-increasing proposal. Markets now await Wednesday's US ADP employment data and Thursday's initial jobless claims figures to assess potential Fed policy paths.

Macro Focus:

Today will see releases of China's June Caixin Manufacturing PMI, France's final June SPGI Manufacturing PMI, Germany's final June SPGI Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone's final June SPGI Manufacturing PMI, UK's final June SPGI Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone's June harmonized CPI year-on-year rate - unadjusted initial value, Eurozone's June core harmonized CPI year-on-year rate - unadjusted initial value, US's final June SPGI Manufacturing PMI, US's June ISM Manufacturing PMI, US's May JOLTs job openings, and Mexico's June SPGI Manufacturing PMI.

Additionally, it is worth noting that on July 1: The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed for one day on July 1 due to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day holiday, with northbound and southbound trading suspended. Also, keep an eye on: Speeches by Goolsbee, the 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President; A speech by Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank; A panel discussion among major global central bank governors (including Powell, the Fed Chairman; Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank; Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England; Ueda Kazuo, the Governor of the Bank of Japan; and Lee Chang-yong, the Governor of the Bank of Korea); The European Central Bank's Central Banking Forum held in Sintra.

In terms of crude oil:

Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures fell overnight, with WTI down 0.84% and Brent down 0.25%. The market is weighing the easing of Middle Eastern risks against the possibility of OPEC increasing production in August. OPEC sources indicated last week that the alliance would increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, following production increases in May, June, and July. OPEC is scheduled to hold a meeting on July 6. If this production increase plan is approved, OPEC's total production increase this year would reach 1.78 million barrels per day, equivalent to more than 1.5% of global total demand. Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said, "I believe this potential supply pressure is still underestimated, making crude oil prices vulnerable to further weakness." Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said that despite the production increase, there is still a certain degree of tightness in the market. Surveys show that OPEC's crude oil production increased in May, but the increase was limited by production cuts from countries that had previously exceeded their quotas. Saudi Arabia and the UAE increased production by less than their quota allowances.

Data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude oil production reached a record high of 13.47 million barrels per day in April, up from 13.45 million barrels per day in March. John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, said that the record-high US oil production exacerbated the bearish sentiment on Monday.

Preliminary surveys released on Monday indicated that US crude oil and distillate inventories are expected to decline last week, while gasoline supplies are expected to increase. Before the release of weekly inventory data, the average forecast of four surveyed analysts was that US crude oil inventories would decline by about 230,000 barrels in the week ending June 27. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly inventory report at 4:30 AM Beijing time on Wednesday, and the US Energy Information Administration will release its weekly inventory report at 10:30 PM Beijing time on Wednesday. (Comprehensive report from Wenhua)