National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): The PMI in June was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, with the manufacturing sector's prosperity expanding.

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) and the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced today (the 30th) China's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for June. From the perspective of the manufacturing PMI, the index has risen for two consecutive months, indicating a sustained improvement in the manufacturing sector's prosperity level and an expansion in the scope of prosperity. In June, China's manufacturing PMI stood at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, marking the second consecutive month of increase. Among the 21 surveyed industries, 11 were in the expansion territory, an increase of 4 from the previous month, indicating an expansion in the manufacturing sector's prosperity scope. In June, as the impact of external disruptive factors diminished, China's manufacturing sector returned to normal operation, with stable release of endogenous economic momentum. Overall market demand ceased declining and rebounded, with the new orders index reaching 50.2%, returning to the expansion territory after two consecutive months below 50%. Meanwhile, manufacturing exports also gradually recovered, with the new export orders index rising for two consecutive months.

In June, the manufacturing PMI continued to rebound.

The expansion of the non-manufacturing business activity index accelerated.

—Interpretation of China's PMI for June 2025 by Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the NBS

On June 30, 2025, the Service Industry Survey Center of the NBS and the CFLP released China's PMI. In response, Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the NBS, provided an interpretation.

In June, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index stood at 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7%, respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points MoM. All three major indices rebounded, indicating that China's economic prosperity level remained expansionary overall.

I. The manufacturing PMI continued to rebound.

In June, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%. Among the 21 surveyed industries, 11 were in the expansion territory, an increase of 4 from the previous month, indicating an expansion in the manufacturing sector's prosperity scope.

(1) Both production and demand indices were in the expansion territory. The production index and new orders index stood at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, up 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points MoM, indicating accelerated manufacturing production activities and improved market demand. From an industry perspective, the production and new orders indices of industries such as food, beverage, and refined tea, as well as special equipment, have been in the expansion territory for two consecutive months, indicating rapid release of production and demand in related industries. However, industries such as non-metallic mineral products, and ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing continued to have indices below the critical point, indicating insufficient market activity. Driven by the rebound in production and demand, enterprises' purchase willingness increased, with the procurement volume index reaching 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points MoM.

(II) Price indices rebound. The purchasing price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials stood at 48.4% and 46.2% respectively, both up by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the overall market price level of the manufacturing sector. By industry, the purchasing price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials in the petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries rebounded significantly, influenced by factors such as the recent rise in international crude oil prices. In addition, due to the continued decline in the prices of raw materials such as iron ore and insufficient end-use demand, both price indices in the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries pulled back, and the market price trend of related industries was weak.

(III) The prosperity of large and medium-sized enterprises improved. The PMI of large enterprises was 51.2%, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, continuing to be in the expansion territory, and playing a significant supporting role for the manufacturing sector as a whole. The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 48.6%, up by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, with an improved prosperity level. The PMI of small enterprises was 47.3%, down by 2.0 percentage points from the previous month.

(IV) The three key industries continued to expand. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods industries were 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4% respectively, all remaining in the expansion territory for two consecutive months. Among them, the production index and new orders index of the equipment manufacturing industry were both above 53.0%, indicating active supply and demand in related industries. The PMI of energy-intensive industries was 47.8%, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, with an improved prosperity level.

II. The expansion of the non-manufacturing business activity index accelerated

In June, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the non-manufacturing sector continued to expand overall.

(I) The prosperity of the service sector was basically stable. The business activity index of the service sector was 50.1%, down slightly by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. By industry, the business activity indices of industries such as telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services, monetary financial services, capital market services, and insurance were all in the high-prosperity range above 60.0%, with rapid growth in total business volume. As the effects of the Labour Day holiday and Dragon Boat Festival holidays faded, the business activity indices of industries related to residents' travel and consumption, such as retail, road transportation, air transportation, accommodation, and catering, pulled back to varying degrees, and market activity weakened. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 56.0%, continuing to be in a relatively high-prosperity range, indicating that most service sector enterprises were optimistic about the future development of the industry.

(II) The expansion of the construction sector accelerated. The business activity index of the construction sector was 52.8%, up by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, with a rebound in prosperity level. Among them, the business activity index for civil engineering construction stood at 56.7%, remaining above the relatively prosperous range of 55.0% for three consecutive months, indicating that infrastructure project construction has maintained a relatively fast pace in recent times. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 53.9%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting that the confidence of construction enterprises in the industry's development has rebounded.

III. Composite PMI Output Index Continues to Expand

In June, the composite PMI Output Index was 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of production and business activities of enterprises in China has accelerated. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI Output Index, were 51.0% and 50.5%, respectively.