Metals show mixed performance, with SHFE copper and SHFE zinc rising for five consecutive days. Polysilicon surges over 6%, and silicon metal rises more than 4% [SMM Daily Review]

SMM, June 27:

Metals Market:

As of daytime session close, domestic base metals mostly rose with SHFE lead the sole decliner (-0.46%). SHFE copper (+1.5%) and SHFE zinc (+1.15%) both extended five-session winning streaks, while SHFE aluminum gained 0.98% and SHFE tin rose 0.82%. Alumina main contract advanced 1.74%, with aluminum casting main contract up 0.51%.

Additionally, lithium carbonate main contract surged 3.33%, polysilicon main contract soared 6.01%, and silicon metal main contract climbed 4.02%. The main container shipping futures contract (Europe route) rose 2.33% to 1,805.Z5/>Ferrous metals series mostly rose, with stainless steel down 0.04%. Iron ore gained 1.99%, while HRC (+0.94%) and rebar (+0.98%) both rose over 0.9%. In coking coal and coke sector, coking coal jumped 4.89% and coke rose 2.52%.

Overseas market: As of 15:03, overseas base metals mostly fell with LME zinc the sole riser (+0.27%). LME tin dropped 0.59%, with other metals showing relatively small fluctuations.

Precious metals: As of 15:03, COMEX gold fell 1.33% and COMEX silver declined 0.73%. Domestically, SHFE gold dropped 0.87% while SHFE silver rose 0.55%.

Market snapshot as of 15:03 today

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Macro Front

Domestic Updates:

[NBS: Jan-May profits of major industrial firms down 1.1% YoY] NBS data shows January-May profits of China's major industrial firms above designated size declined 1.1% YoY. During this period, state-controlled enterprises reported 870.95 billion yuan in profits (-7.4% YoY), joint-stock enterprises 2.017 trillion yuan (-1.5% YoY), foreign/HK-Macao-Taiwan invested firms 685.68 billion yuan (+0.3% YoY), and private enterprises 759.25 billion yuan (+3.4% YoY). Yu Weining, NBS industrial statistics division chief, analyzed: January-May profits totaled 2.72 trillion yuan with YoY decline, featuring: multiple factors impacting industrial profit contraction; sustained gross profit and revenue growth; equipment manufacturing acting as stabilizer; high-quality development momentum in aerospace/marine sectors; and continued policy effects from the large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins program. Profits of private and foreign-funded enterprises maintained growth. In the next phase, it is necessary to thoroughly implement the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, implement more proactive and effective macro policies, focus on strengthening domestic circulation, enhance innovation-driven development, steadily promote high-quality industrial development, and lay a solid foundation for the recovery of industrial enterprises' profitability. 》Click to view details

[China's Logistics Market Size Surpasses 360 Trillion Yuan for First Time, Ranking First Globally for 9 Consecutive Years]The China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing released the "China Logistics and Supply Chain Development Report (2024-2025)" today (June 27). According to the report, China's logistics market size has ranked first in the world for nine consecutive years, with modern logistics further strengthening its supporting role in the national economy. The report indicates that China's total social logistics volume exceeded 360 trillion yuan for the first time in 2024, with annual total logistics revenue reaching 13.8 trillion yuan. By the end of 2024, the number of A-level logistics enterprises in China surpassed 10,000 for the first time, including over 500 5A-level enterprises representing the highest domestic standard. The industry is generally transitioning from "logistics" to "supply chain" development. A preliminary national logistics node network has taken shape. National logistics park surveys show the number of large-scale logistics parks reached 2,769.

►The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1620 yuan per US dollar on June 27.

US dollar update:

As of 15:03, the US dollar index fell 0.12% to 97.17, recording a fifth consecutive decline and hovering near its lowest level since March 2022. US Q1 actual GDP annualized quarterly rate final reading declined 0.5% (vs. -0.2% expected, -0.2% prior). US merchandise exports fell 5.2% MoM in May, the largest decline since 2020. US initial jobless claims totaled 236,000 last week, with the prior figure revised from 245,000 to 246,000.

Internal divisions emerge within the US Fed. Fed Governors Waller and Bowman, both appointed by Trump, recently stated they remain open to potential interest rate cuts as early as July. However, Barkin, Collins, Daly, and Goolsbee indicated on Thursday that July would be premature. Fed Chairman Powell expressed a desire to see more data before taking action. Attention turns to tonight's US PCE data release. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Macro highlights:

Today's key data releases include US May personal spending MoM, US May core PCE price index YoY, US June Michigan consumer sentiment final reading, Eurozone June industrial confidence index, Eurozone June economic sentiment index, Eurozone June consumer confidence final reading, Japan June Tokyo CPI YoY, Japan May unemployment rate, Canada April seasonally adjusted GDP YoY, and other indicators. In addition, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech, while 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Hamrick and Fed Governor Lisa Cook will attend the "Fed Listens" event.

Crude oil sector:

As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets rose together, with WTI and Brent crude oil both gaining 0.52%. However, weekly charts show potential for the largest single-week decline since March 2023, as geopolitical conflicts failed to cause major supply disruptions, leading to the disappearance of risk premiums.

Macquarie analysts wrote in a Thursday research note: "Without significant threats of supply disruptions, we maintain our view that oil is fundamentally oversupplied, with our 2025 balance indicating a surplus of approximately 2.1 million barrels per day." Macquarie forecasts WTI prices to average around $67 per barrel this year and $60 per barrel next year, with each projection revised upward by $2 after accounting for geopolitical risk premiums.

In the latter half of the week, prices rose slightly as US government data showed declining crude and fuel inventories one week prior, along with increased refining activity and demand. "The market is starting to absorb the fact that crude oil inventories have suddenly become very tight," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

SMM Daily Reviews

►Aluminum prices surge significantly, while scrap aluminum's overall increase remains limited [Scrap Aluminum Daily Review]

►[SMM MHP Daily Review] June 27: Indonesian MHP prices edge slightly higher

►[SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] June 27: Nickel salt prices stabilize

►Limited concessions in raw material sector keep tungsten market fluctuating at highs [SMM Tungsten Daily Review]

►Molybdenum market decline slows but remains under pressure [SMM Molybdenum Daily Review]

SMM Weekly Reviews

►SHFE copper spot premiums bottom out and rebound, expected to stabilize at highs next week [SMM SHFE Copper Spot Weekly Review]

►Mid-year supplier inventory liquidation actions cause spot premiums to bottom out and recover [SMM South China Copper Cathode Spot Weekly Review]

►Germanium market sees intense bull-bear struggles with intensified directional battles [SMM Germanium Market Weekly Review]

►Mid-year selenium tenders boost market confidence, prices weaken then strengthen this week [SMM Selenium Market Weekly Review]

►Tight production keeps bismuth prices stable [SMM Bismuth Spot Weekly Review]

►Increased manufacturer tenders weaken gallium market [SMM Gallium Spot Weekly Review]

►Antimony prices remain stable with suppliers gaining upper hand [SMM Antimony Market Spot Weekly Review]