SMM Aluminum Market Weekly Report 20250626

• Hot topic this week: Aluminum billet production has remained high for several months. Will it pull back in June?
• Forecast for next week: Social inventory of aluminum ingots is running at a low level, supporting the high-level fluctuation of aluminum prices. The rainy season in Guinea is affecting imported ore prices.
• Overall, in the coming week, aluminum prices will face tests from inventory turning point confirmation and pressure from the off-season demand. In the short term, they will maintain a doldrums trend, with certain pressure above 20,600-20,700 yuan/mt. Risk alerts: Macro aspects still require close attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, US non-farm payrolls data, and the implementation effects of Chinese policies, which may stabilize aluminum prices and lead to a slight rebound. It is expected that SHFE aluminum will operate within the range of 20,200-20,600 yuan/mt, and LME aluminum will fluctuate within $2,530-$2,600/mt.
• Electrolytic aluminum: Initial signs of inventory buildup in aluminum ingots emerge, with spot premiums pulling back from highs.
• Bauxite and alumina: The index price of imported bauxite fluctuates, while spot alumina prices continue to fall.
• Aluminum billet and extrusion: Regional inventory of aluminum billets diverges, with processing fees slightly rebounding. Extrusion operating rates continue to decline, and PV orders show little improvement.
• Secondary aluminum: Dominated by the off-season, aluminum scrap prices diverge significantly at high levels. Secondary aluminum alloy faces weak inventory buildup pressure.
• Aluminum auxiliary materials: Prebaked anode prices are expected to weaken in July. The aluminum fluoride market maintains a weak supply and demand pattern.

For more details, please refer to the Weekly Report on China's Aluminum Market (20250626).