SMM Aluminum Market Weekly Report 20250626

Published: Jun 27, 2025 09:02

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Details of the hot topics in the aluminum market this week (June 23-26, 2025) are as follows......

Hot topic this week: Aluminum billet production has remained high for several months. Will it pull back in June?
Forecast for next week: Social inventory of aluminum ingots is running at a low level, supporting the high-level fluctuation of aluminum prices. The rainy season in Guinea is affecting imported ore prices.
Overall, in the coming week, aluminum prices will face tests from inventory turning point confirmation and pressure from the off-season demand. In the short term, they will maintain a doldrums trend, with certain pressure above 20,600-20,700 yuan/mt. Risk alerts: Macro aspects still require close attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, US non-farm payrolls data, and the implementation effects of Chinese policies, which may stabilize aluminum prices and lead to a slight rebound. It is expected that SHFE aluminum will operate within the range of 20,200-20,600 yuan/mt, and LME aluminum will fluctuate within $2,530-$2,600/mt.
Electrolytic aluminum: Initial signs of inventory buildup in aluminum ingots emerge, with spot premiums pulling back from highs.
Bauxite and alumina: The index price of imported bauxite fluctuates, while spot alumina prices continue to fall.
Aluminum billet and extrusion: Regional inventory of aluminum billets diverges, with processing fees slightly rebounding. Extrusion operating rates continue to decline, and PV orders show little improvement.
Secondary aluminum: Dominated by the off-season, aluminum scrap prices diverge significantly at high levels. Secondary aluminum alloy faces weak inventory buildup pressure.
Aluminum auxiliary materials: Prebaked anode prices are expected to weaken in July. The aluminum fluoride market maintains a weak supply and demand pattern.

For more details, please refer to the Weekly Report on China's Aluminum Market (20250626).

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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