US dollar continues to hit a new low in over three years; base metals rally collectively; LME zinc rises over 2%; alumina posts three consecutive gains [overnight market]

SMM News on June 27:

Metals Market:

Overnight, both domestic and overseas metals markets collectively rose, with LME zinc leading the gains with a 2.42% increase. LME copper, LME tin, SHFE copper, SHFE aluminum, SHFE zinc, and SHFE tin all rose over 1%, with LME copper up 1.89% and LME tin up 1.86%. SHFE copper rose 1.33%, SHFE aluminum 1.37%, SHFE zinc 1.33%, and SHFE tin 1.7%. Alumina main contract rose 1.74%, while aluminum casting main contract gained 0.81%.

In the ferrous metals series, all products except stainless steel advanced, with iron ore up 1.64% and stainless steel down 0.32%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 3.09% and coke gained 1.77%.

Precious metals saw COMEX gold down 0.04% and COMEX silver up 1.22%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.12% and SHFE silver gained 0.88%.

As of the overnight close at 6:44 Beijing time on June 27

》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic Updates:

At a regular press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) on the afternoon of June 26, a reporter inquired about EU rare earth export approvals. MOFCOM spokesperson He Yadong stated that China consistently prioritizes maintaining global industrial and supply chain stability, has been expediting reviews of rare earth-related export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations, and has approved a certain number of compliant applications. China will continue strengthening approvals for compliant applications and enhancing export control dialogues with relevant countries to facilitate lawful trade.

[NDRC: Third Batch of Consumer Goods Trade-in Funds to Be Allocated in July] Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office at the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), announced at the NDRC's June press conference on the morning of June 26 that the third batch of 2025 consumer goods trade-in funds will be allocated in July. The NDRC will coordinate relevant parties to adhere to principles of sustainability and balance, formulate monthly and weekly implementation plans for national subsidy allocations, and ensure orderly policy execution throughout the year. Li Chao also introduced that the NDRC recently issued an action plan to expand work-for-welfare programs and boost employment/income for key groups through incremental policies, providing greater support to vulnerable populations. Since November 2024, the NDRC and Ministry of Finance have jointly allocated 16.5 billion yuan in 2025 work-for-welfare central funds, supporting over 3,900 local projects and expected to assist 380,000 vulnerable individuals with employment and income opportunities. Building on this, the current action plan proposes to add a new batch of central budget investment projects, providing support to regions with a high concentration of key groups.》Click for details

US dollar:

The overnight US dollar fell 0.41% to close at 97.29, with an intraday low of 97, marking a new low since March 2022. Fed Chairman Powell was interpreted as being more dovish during his testimony before the US Congress this week. He reiterated the expectation that inflation should rise this summer, but stated that if price pressures continue to be contained, "we will cut interest rates as soon as possible." According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, futures traders have priced in a 23% probability of an interest rate cut in July, up from 13% a week ago, and a 93% probability of a cut in September. Overall, traders expect a 66 basis point interest rate cut by the end of the year, up from 46 basis points last Friday, suggesting a potential third 25 basis point interest rate cut.

US President Trump will nominate a new Fed Chairman next year, and he is expected to be more dovish than Powell, whose term ends in May. Trump called Powell "terrible" on Wednesday and said he had three or four candidates in mind for the top Fed position. Analysts say the candidate could operate as a shadow Fed Chairman, undermining Powell's influence. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that even if US President Trump nominates a candidate to replace current Fed Chairman Powell, the move will not have any impact on monetary policy until the nominee is confirmed.

The US Congress is also working on a tax and spending bill, with the Senate aiming to pass it by July 4. In the long term, the US dollar is also under pressure as international investors withdraw funds from US assets due to concerns about the economic and dollar outlook.

Other currencies:

The euro closed up 0.51% at $1.1719, with an intraday high of $1.1744, the highest since September 2021.

The British pound rose 0.62% to $1.3748, with an intraday high of $1.3770, the highest since October 2021. The Swiss franc hit a 10.5-year high, trading at 0.799 Swiss francs per US dollar.

The US dollar fell 0.72% against 144.2 yen.

Macro:

Today, data such as the year-on-year rate of profit for industrial enterprises above designated size in China for May (single month), the month-on-month rate of personal spending in the US for May, the year-on-year rate of the core PCE price index in the US for May, the final value of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in the US for June, the industrial sentiment index in the Eurozone for June, the economic sentiment index in the Eurozone for June, the final value of the consumer sentiment index in the Eurozone for June, the year-on-year rate of the Tokyo CPI in Japan for June, the unemployment rate in Japan for May, and the year-on-year rate of seasonally adjusted GDP in Canada for April will be released.

Additionally, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech. Loretta Mester, the 2026 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and Lisa Cook, a member of the US Fed's Board of Governors, will attend the "Fed Listens" event.

Crude oil update:

Oil prices in both markets rose simultaneously, with US crude oil up 0.46% and Brent crude oil up 0.47%. This was due to a decline in US crude oil inventory amid improved demand as the peak summer driving season approached, although concerns over supply risks in the Middle East eased, limiting the extent of the price increase.

On Wednesday, after data showed strong demand in the US, both US crude oil and Brent crude oil prices climbed nearly 1%, rebounding from earlier losses earlier this week. The August Brent crude oil futures contract was trading below the June 12 settlement price of $69.36, the day before Israel began air strikes on Iran. Analysts from ANZ said that the US driving season had started slowly but was now stimulating demand. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that US crude oil and fuel inventories fell in the week ending June 20 due to increased refinery activity and demand. The EIA said that US crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels during the week, a much larger decline than the 797,000-barrel drop analysts had expected. (Webstock Inc.)