[SMM Nickel Midday Review] On June 24, spot premiums for nickel increased significantly, with Iran and Israel announcing a formal ceasefire

SMM Nickel News on June 24:

Macro News:

(1) According to CCTV News, Iran and Israel have announced a formal ceasefire.

(2) On June 23, nine departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Gold Industry (2025-2027)". The Plan proposes that by 2027, resource security capabilities and innovation levels in the industry chain will be significantly improved. Gold resource reserves will increase by 5%-10%, and gold and silver production will increase by over 5%. Mines with a gold ore processing capacity of over 500 mt/day will account for over 70% of the national output. The comprehensive utilization rate of gold solid waste will increase to over 35%.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 117,350-120,650 yuan/mt, with an average price of 119,000 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,800-3,200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 3,000 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for premiums and discounts of electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands is 0-500 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2507) fell below a key support level during the day: It closed down 0.51% at 117,370 yuan/mt in the night session (LME nickel also fell 1.46% to $14,840/mt); it continued to decline in the daytime session, closing at 117,020 yuan/mt at midday, down 950 yuan/mt or 0.81%.

The surplus pattern of refined nickel is difficult to reverse, and the price center may gradually move lower. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate rangebound within 115,000-121,000 yuan/mt. Support from ore prices and cost lines form the bottom, but macro risk-averse sentiment and inventory pressure inhibit rebound momentum.