IEA: Mexico's Oil Production to Decline Significantly

According to a report on the BNAmericas website, the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s recently released Oil 2025 report projects that Mexico will experience the largest decline in oil production by 2030.

The IEA predicts that within five years, Mexico's daily oil production (including condensate) will drop from 1.97 million barrels to 1.29 million barrels.

Additionally, the IEA also forecasts that in the first half of this year, Mexico's oil production will decrease by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) YoY.

The report adds, "Mexico will experience the largest decline in production, with daily output expected to fall by 680,000 barrels to 1.3 million barrels by 2030. It will not only be the country with the largest decline in OPEC+ production but also the largest decline globally."

From 2021 to 2023, Mexico's oil production decline slowed down due to the accelerated development of the Quesqui oil field.

"During the pandemic, Pemex significantly reduced its investments. The previous administration required Pemex to focus on onshore and shallow-water oil fields, abandoning the development of larger deep-water oil fields," the report states.

"Before 2024, more than half of Pemex's production came from just seven of its 240 oil fields," the report says.

Currently, only the Trion oil field, a major one, is expected to be developed by 2030, with an estimated production capacity ranging from 100,000 to 120,000 bpd.

The expansion of the Zama and Ku-Maloob-Zaap oil fields is still pending approval, and neither expansion is expected to come online before 2030.

The report states that changes in Pemex's finances, including debts owed to suppliers and reductions in exploration and development budgets, have led to a decrease in the number of platforms the company operates from 50 to 25 in less than half a year.

In its report, the IEA states, "The decline in production puts the country at risk of becoming a net importer."

The report suggests that by 2030, Mexico may need to import 500,000 bpd of oil to meet domestic demand.

The IEA estimates that before 2030, the world's daily oil production capacity will increase by 5.1 million barrels to reach 114.7 million barrels, mainly driven by production growth in Saudi Arabia and the US, which will contribute 40% of the capacity increase.

Countries outside OPEC+ will contribute two-thirds of the increase, or 3.1 million bpd, while non-OPEC countries will contribute 2 million bpd.

The US will continue to lead non-OPEC oil production growth, while Saudi Arabia will lead growth among OPEC+ countries, almost entirely from liquefied petroleum gas.