[SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review: Aluminum Price Center Pulls Back, Market Transaction Recovery Limited] SMM News on June 24: In the morning session, the center of the front-month contract for SHFE aluminum fell to around 20,350 yuan/mt. The futures market dropped back slightly, with increased market inquiries, but actual transactions were still centered around long-term contracts. The spot market remained sluggish, with transactions occurring at a discount of 10 yuan/mt against SMM. Today, SMM A00 aluminum was quoted at 20,540 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with a premium of 150 yuan/mt against the July contract, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,643.5/mt, dipping to a low of $9,615.0/mt and peaking at $9,697.0/mt, before closing at $9,694.5/mt, up 0.35%.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: The most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract rose slightly by 0.13% overnight, with the tug-of-war between cost and off-season demand continuing] Aluminum prices continued to decline slightly yesterday, with the SMM ADC12 price falling by 50 yuan/mt to 19,900-20,100 yuan/mt. Market quotes were slightly differentiated, with some enterprises slightly lowering their quotes due to weak demand, while others maintained firm quotes supported by cost pressure.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Reduced Probability of Short-Term Conflict Escalation in the Middle East, Inventory Inflection Point Becomes Key to Aluminum Market Direction] On the macro front, the probability of short-term conflict spreading in the Middle East has decreased, and the premiums previously driven by risk-averse sentiment may pull back. On the fundamental front, domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has remained stable, with the proportion of liquid aluminum staying at highs, and the market supply of casting ingots remains tight. On the demand side, overall, most downstream sectors are in a traditional off-season state. Feedback on production cuts in downstream sectors in central China is evident, with weak spot cargo transactions and significant discounts in market transaction prices. The weakening off-season demand in PV and home appliance sectors cannot be ignored, with a noticeable pullback in the operating rates of related sectors. The operating rate in the wire and cable sector has also declined due to the completion of the previous delivery cycle and high aluminum prices. In terms of inventory, the rate of destocking has slowed, and low inventory levels still provide support to the futures market. On Monday this week, inventory buildup was observed, and it is necessary to observe whether the inflection point of destocking has officially formed. However, spot premiums/discounts have gradually pulled back. In summary, in the short term, supported by expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and low inventory levels, aluminum prices may fluctuate at highs. However, under the pressure of easing geopolitical risks and inventory buildup on the fundamental front, the upside room is relatively limited. Spot premiums/discounts may fall back from highs, and subsequent focus should be on changes in inventory and demand.

Net Primary Aluminum Imports: In May 2025, domestic net primary aluminum imports were 190,700 mt, down 19.5% MoM and up 26.3% YoY. From January to May, cumulative domestic net primary aluminum imports were approximately 990,500 mt, down 8.0% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.)

[SMM Analysis: Net Imports of Primary Aluminum Plummeted Nearly 20% MoM in May, Weakening Actual Transactions During Off-Season Demand] In May 2025, China's net imports of primary aluminum reached 190,700 mt, down 19.5% MoM and up 26.3% YoY. From January to May, the cumulative net imports of primary aluminum in China amounted to approximately 990,500 mt, down 8.0% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.)

Rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed aluminium prices higher and fueled short-term market volatility, but a full and sustained blockade remains unlikely given historical precedent and strong military deterrence. The main impact on the aluminium sector is expected to be regional supply disruptions and premium divergence, rather than a prolonged global crisis.