TOPCon Technology Initiates Competition in Inventory Optimization; High-Power Modules May Bring Higher Premiums

"The 650W module will be a watershed," said Qian Jing, Vice President of Jinko Solar (688223.SH), during an exchange with media outlets including Cailian Press. In June this year, the company launched its TigerNeo3.0 module product, achieving a maximum power of 670W based on the 2382*1134 size, further elevating the power of TOPCon technology products to a new level.

"Top-tier enterprises are breaking free from the price war dilemma by increasing the proportion of high-power modules," an industry insider told a Cailian Press reporter. Whether enterprises can "achieve maximum power gain with minimal transformation costs" will become the core criterion for measuring their competitiveness, while the speed of technological iteration is a crucial factor in reshaping the industry landscape in this round.

In the past two years, based on the current development status of the PV industry, multiple enterprises have explicitly stated that they are tightening their capacity expansion plans. Trinasolar (688599.SH) and Jinko Solar have successively announced the launch of technological transformation plans for their existing TOPCon capacities. An insider from JA Solar Technology (002459.SZ) also told a Cailian Press reporter that the company will undergo technological transformation, with the proportion of transformed capacity adhering to the principle of spending within one's means. Qian Jing, Vice President of Jinko Solar, stated that the company will be very cautious about capacity expansion in the short term, both domestically and overseas, and will mainly focus on upgrading and transforming high-efficiency products this year.

Industry Insight: High-efficiency Products Have Certain Premium Pricing Power

High-efficiency modules exhibit better premium pricing performance. In Qian Jing's view, mainstream modules (2382*1134 format) will take 650W as the benchmark. Products below 650W can be regarded as previous-generation or mainstream products, with their prices directly linked to market conditions.

However, high-efficiency products with a front-side power of 650W and a back-side bifaciality ratio of over 80% possess certain premium pricing power. Qian Jing believes that, regardless of whether it's BC technology or TOPCon technology, 650W with an 80% bifaciality ratio serves as a benchmark or watershed. Such products can enjoy a 10% premium compared to those below 650W, with the premium ranging approximately between 0.5-1¢.

She further stated that this premium setting is not arbitrary, nor is it based on comparisons with competitors or solely for the pursuit of doubling profits. Instead, it is a conclusion derived from LCOE calculations across multiple scenarios.

The PV product market is highly competitive. In the eyes of top-tier enterprises, homogeneous products lack pricing power and will fall deeper into price wars. However, enterprises with a higher proportion of high-power modules, especially those above 650W, can gain pricing power by leveraging the LCOE advantages brought about by higher power generation per watt, and take the lead in emerging from this PV cycle.

In terms of products, currently, Jinko Solar's TigerNeo3.0 product has achieved a mass production power of 670W, a module efficiency of 24.8%, and a bifaciality ratio of 85%, placing it at the forefront of the industry among modules of the same size. It is more suitable for centralized power plant projects in high-temperature and high-irradiance markets such as the Middle East, western China, and Latin America.

A market insider told a reporter from Cailian Press that the premium for high-efficiency modules stems from lower LCOE, higher spatial utilization, and advantages in system design. Downstream power plant developers, investors, and end-users are willing to pay this premium for these benefits. Ultimately, the market recognizes value, not just price. The systemic cost reductions and increased power generation brought about by high-efficiency, high-power modules are their core competitive advantages in securing market premiums.

According to a white paper released by Jinko Solar, in terms of LCOE competitiveness, the direction of technological iteration has shifted from "cost reduction" to "cost reduction + efficiency improvement." The company's TOPCon technology, with a mass production efficiency exceeding 24.8% and a bifaciality ratio surpassing 85%, combined with a lower annual degradation rate (<1%), enables power plant systems to increase power generation revenue by approximately 3%–5% over their entire life cycle.

In response, industry analysts noted that this means even if the initial investment in modules is slightly higher, the increased power generation and savings in operation and maintenance costs can still significantly reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), creating a more favorable internal rate of return (IRR) model for investors.

Top-tier enterprises have initiated technological transformations of their existing capacities.

Data released by top-tier enterprises indicate that the conversion efficiency of TOPCon technology products is still improving. Trinasolar plans to commence mass production of its first-phase 10GW i-TOPCon Ultra modules in the second quarter of this year, followed by the gradual upgrade of 60–70GW of existing production lines.

Zhang Yingbin, Global Product Strategy and Marketing Head at Trinasolar, told a reporter from Cailian Press that with the introduction and application of technologies such as double-sided full passivation contact, light trapping, and ultra-fine finger, there is still room for improvement in TOPCon cell technology. It is expected that cell efficiency will increase by 0.3%-0.4% annually, and achieving a mass production cell efficiency of 27% is feasible.

Jinko Solar revealed that its top priority this year is to complete the upgrade of some of its existing capacities. Currently, N-type capacity accounts for 90% of the company's total capacity. It is expected that the proportion of TigerNeo3.0 capacity will reach around 20% by the end of this year and gradually increase to over 50% by 2026.

Jinko Solar's Chief Technology Officer, Jin Hao, also believes that TOPCon cell technology still has significant room for efficiency improvement, with cell efficiency expected to exceed 28% in the next three years, approaching the efficiency limit of monocrystalline silicon cells. As the process continues to optimize and economies of scale are gradually realized, the economic viability of TOPCon technology will become increasingly prominent.

JA Solar Technology stated that after the technological transformation, the conversion efficiency of its modules will reach 24.8% in the short term. The actual progress will mainly depend on the premium situation of high-power modules after the transformation and the pace of capital-driven technological upgrades.

It is worth noting that, amidst the current coexistence of multiple PV technology routes, TOPCon technology is still facing competition from BC products for market share.

Zhang Yingbin believes that with the advent of the TOPCon 2.0 era, compared with BC products, Topcon modules offer superior overall efficiency: under large-scale industrialisation conditions, although the front-side power of TOPCon 2.0 modules is 10W lower, they benefit from a 10%–15% advantage in rear-side ratio (bifaciality), resulting in an 89W higher rear-side power and thus higher overall power. In bifacial power generation scenarios, the higher the rear-side irradiance in a region, the higher the overall efficiency of Topcon modules, further amplifying their advantages.

He stated that this year, TrinaSolar's TOPCon 2.0 modules can achieve 650W, further narrowing the front-side power gap with BC products. However, considering the advantages of rear-side power generation, the two are on par in terms of overall value.