Petroleum coke rebounds, coal tar pitch weakens, hedging effects observed; prebaked anode costs increase slightly, prices struggle to rise [SMM Weekly Review of Prebaked Anode]

SMM News on June 19:

Raw Material Side: In the petroleum coke market, the sales performance of refineries improved during the week, with petroleum coke prices bottoming out and rebounding. Specifically, CNOOC's petroleum coke prices turned from decline to increase this week, with gains ranging from 130-160 yuan/mt to 3,330 yuan/mt. Binzhou Petrochemical remained under maintenance and did not provide quotes. According to SMM, Binzhou Petrochemical plans to resume production on June 26 after completing maintenance. PetroChina's refineries in north-east China saw differentiated sales performance during the week, with petroleum coke prices undergoing minor adjustments, mainly within a range of 50 yuan/mt. The current price range is 3,300-3,750 yuan/mt. Sinopec's refineries witnessed moderate trading activity in petroleum coke, with some refineries pushing up prices slightly during the week, mainly within 50 yuan/mt. For local refineries, downstream enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm increased, especially for low-sulphur and medium-sulphur petroleum coke, whose prices turned from decline to increase, while high-sulphur petroleum coke prices remained largely stable. Currently, domestic petroleum coke supply is relatively abundant, and downstream purchasing sentiment has recovered, with demand improving. It is expected that petroleum coke prices will consolidate with fluctuations in the short term. According to SMM data, the average price of petroleum coke at local refineries is approximately 2,208 yuan/mt, down about 0.99% MoM. In the coal tar pitch market, trading activity was weak this week, with prices continuing to decline. As of Thursday, the average price of coal tar pitch was 3,612 yuan/mt, down 3.65% MoM. Overall, the rebound in petroleum coke prices and the continuous weakening of coal tar pitch prices have offset each other, with the cost side of prebaked anodes currently showing a "generally stable with slight rise" support pattern.​

Supply Side: Prebaked anode enterprises continue to adopt the "produce based on sales" strategy. This week, the industry's operating rate remained stable, with no significant fluctuations in production schedules. Market supply maintained a dynamic balance, without notable increases or decreases. On the demand side, with the southward shift of aluminum capacity in Shandong and regional adjustments in electrolytic aluminum capacity, overall capacity operated smoothly.

Brief Commentary: This week, the raw material market for prebaked anodes showed mixed performance, with slightly enhanced cost support. According to SMM data, as of June 19, the cost of prebaked anodes in China was approximately 4,656 yuan/mt, up 0.54% MoM. From the perspective of the supply-demand pattern, the industry maintained a high operating rate, with steady downstream demand, and prebaked anode prices are expected to run smoothly in the short term. However, the performance of the raw material side restricts price increases: although the petroleum coke market shows signs of recovery, there is still a lack of strong support for sustained price increases; the coal tar pitch market remains weak, with clear downward expectations. Under the combined influence of these two factors, prebaked anode prices lack upward momentum next month. It is necessary to closely monitor adjustments in the supply-demand structure and price transmission changes in the upstream and downstream of the industry chain to promptly grasp market dynamics.

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