Operating alumina capacity declined slightly by 0.4% MoM. It is necessary to continuously monitor the profitability of alumina enterprises [SMM Alumina Weekly Review]

SMM News on June 19:

Price Review:

As of Thursday this week, the SMM Alumina Index stood at 3,205.50 yuan/mt, down 32.26 yuan/mt from last Thursday. In Shandong, prices were reported at 3,150-3,200 yuan/mt, down 80 yuan/mt from last Thursday; in Henan, prices were at 3,160-3,220 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt from last Thursday; in Shanxi, prices were at 3,100-3,220 yuan/mt, down 105 yuan/mt from last Thursday; in Guangxi, prices were at 3,190-3,240 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from last Thursday; in Guizhou, prices were at 3,250-3,310 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from last Thursday; in Bayuquan, prices were at 3,210-3,290 yuan/mt.

Overseas Market:

As of June 19, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $370/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $22.60/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate hovering around 7.21. This price translates to approximately 3,278 yuan/mt for the external selling price at major domestic ports, which is 81 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price, keeping the alumina import window closed. This week, a spot alumina transaction was inquired overseas: on June 13, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $366/mt FOB Eastern Australia, with an August shipment date.

Domestic Market:

According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, the total installed capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina nationwide was 110.82 million mt/year, with a total operating capacity of 88.57 million mt/year. The national weekly alumina operating rate fell by 0.4 percentage points WoW to 79.92%, mainly due to some enterprises choosing to cut production considering ore costs. Among them, the weekly alumina operating rate in Shandong fell by 1.53 percentage points WoW to 86.54%; in Shanxi, it rose by 1.43 percentage points WoW to 76.60%; in Henan, it remained unchanged WoW at 60.00%; in Guangxi, it fell by 2.85 percentage points WoW to 91.72%.

During the period, spot alumina transactions were relatively sluggish, with a few transaction prices at a discount to the online price, driving the online price down. The market reported a few tender prices for alumina purchased by aluminum smelters, with ex-factory prices ranging from 3,000-3,100 yuan/mt. Additionally, a few fixed-price transactions were inquired in north China, with transaction price ranges of 3,020-3,200 yuan/mt; the lowest transaction price in south China was 3,200 yuan/mt.

Overall:

This week, some alumina refineries completed maintenance and resumed production; at the same time, considering ore costs, news of new production cuts emerged, with alumina operating capacity increasing and decreasing in parallel. Overall, the weekly alumina operating capacity fell by 440,000 mt MoM to 88.57 million mt/year, and spot alumina supply remained loose. This week, the total alumina inventory at aluminum smelters increased by 8,600 mt to 2.655 million mt. In the short term, the alumina market fundamentals are expected to remain relatively loose, and spot alumina prices are expected to drop back slightly. Subsequently, continuous attention should be paid to the changes in the capacity of domestic alumina enterprises and their profitability.

Source: SMM

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