The spot market is relatively calm. Short-term spot alumina prices are expected to continue their downward trend. [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 6.18

Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,860 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,898 yuan/mt, a low of 2,855 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,896 yuan/mt, up 41 yuan/mt or 1.45%. Open interest stood at 301,000 lots.

Ore: As of June 17, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $74.06/mt, up $0.01/mt from the previous trading day, mainly due to a decline in caustic soda prices in Shandong. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was reported at $74.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $65/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Basis Report: According to SMM data, on June 17, the SMM alumina index had a premium of 357.89 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.

Warrant Report: On June 17, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 17,134 mt from the previous trading day to 63,000 mt. In Shandong, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 601 mt from the previous trading day. In Henan, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 300 mt from the previous trading day. In Guangxi, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 3,001 mt from the previous trading day. In Gansu, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 0 mt from the previous trading day. In Xinjiang, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 17,134 mt from the previous trading day to 59,100 mt.

Overseas Market: As of June 17, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $370/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $22.00/mt. The USD/CNY selling rate was around 7.20. This price translates to an approximate ex-factory price of 3,269 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is 57 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import window remained closed.

Summary: Last week, the operating capacity of alumina increased by 1.74 million mt/year MoM to 89.01 million mt/year. Spot supply was relatively loose compared to the previous period. The total weekly inventory of alumina at aluminum smelters increased by 16,000 mt to 2.646 million mt. Recently, the alumina market has been relatively quiet, with the fundamental outlook expected to remain relatively loose. Earlier, some ex-factory prices of around 3,100 yuan/mt were reported in the northern alumina spot market, while sporadic spot transactions were reported in south-west China, with the lowest transaction price reaching 3,200 yuan/mt, which was at a discount to the online price. In the short term, alumina spot prices are expected to continue to decline. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in the capacity of domestic alumina enterprises and the supply of imported alumina.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should exercise caution in decision-making and not use it to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.】