Supply Confronts Off-Season Demand, SHFE and LME Tin Prices Under Narrow Pressure [SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary]

June 17, 2025 Daily Review of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract

The most-traded SHFE tin contract remained in the doldrums today, opening at 264,400 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 265,560 yuan/mt and a low of 263,020 yuan/mt, before closing at 263,730 yuan/mt, down 0.3% from the previous session, with a trading volume of 17.375 billion yuan. Market activity slightly declined, as the price fluctuation range narrowed to 260,000-265,000 yuan/mt amid intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts.

Traditional Sector Drag: Consumer electronics entered the off-season, with orders for mobile phones and PCs dominated by "small batches and multiple orders." Tinplate and chemical demand remained stable, but high prices dampened downstream purchase willingness, resulting in sluggish spot market transactions with daily trading volume barely exceeding 10 mt.

Macro Sentiment Pressure

Caution Ahead of US Fed Meeting: The market widely expected the US Fed to keep rates unchanged, but potential hawkish-dovish wording adjustments in the policy statement could trigger US dollar fluctuations, indirectly suppressing metal risk appetite. Uncertainties surrounding China-US tariff policies and geopolitical tensions (e.g., Middle East conflicts) also heightened market wait-and-see sentiment.

LME tin's most-traded contract closed at $32,425/mt, down 0.38% from the previous day.

Technical Weakness: A break below the $32,400/mt support level could lead to a test of the $31,000-32,000/mt range. If macro sentiment improves or supply increments fall short of expectations, prices may rebound to $33,000/mt.

In the short term, the core contradiction in SHFE tin prices lies in the tug-of-war between low inventory support and marginal demand pullback, compounded by macro sentiment fluctuations:

Upside Catalyst: If the US Fed signals dovishness or Myanmar's production resumptions face significant delays, prices may test the 265,000 yuan resistance level.

Downside Risks: Deepening off-season demand, LME tin price breakdowns, and rising domestic inventory buildup expectations could drag prices back to the 260,000 yuan psychological threshold.