Will "zero interest rates" make a comeback? The focus of the super central bank week is not just on the US Fed...

From Washington to London, more than a dozen central banks will hold policy meetings this week, with the economies they represent accounting for two-fifths of the global economy. Among them, in addition to the highly anticipated US Fed, another G10 central bank's policy meeting this week will also attract widespread attention: the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which has been continuously pushing global interest rates to new lows.

According to industry surveys of economists, the SNB is likely to cut interest rates to zero this week and maintain them at this low level for some time.

Nearly 80% of the surveyed economists expect that SNB policymakers will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points to 0% this Thursday. This move will return the benchmark interest rate to a level not seen since September 2022, when the SNB just ended its seven-year negative interest rate policy. Andthis will also become the lowest interest rate among major economies globally at present.

Among the 22 forecasting institutions surveyed, only three institutions—Pantheon Macroeconomics, Capital Economics, and Swiss Life Asset Managers—predict that the SNB will directly cut interest rates by 50 basis points to -0.25% this week.

Another six institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Nomura, and Barclays, expect the SNB to enter "negative interest rate" territory in September, but most surveyed institutions believe the easing cycle will end in June.

SNB officials can cite the country's extremely weak CPI growth as a reason for a sixth consecutive interest rate cut:Last month, Switzerland's inflation rate turned negative for the first time since early 2021. Meanwhile, economists surveyed by the industry predict that the average annual inflation rate will be only 0.3% this year and 0.6% in 2026.

In addition, exchange rate fluctuations may also be one of the factors considered by the SNB this week.SNB policymakers are trying to take measures to curb capital inflows into the Swiss franc. Since US President Trump announced "Liberation Day" tariff measures in early April, the Swiss franc has appreciated more than 8% against the US dollar.

Since then, the Swiss franc has also continued to appreciate against the euro, a currency pair of particular concern to the SNB. The strength of the Swiss franc has pushed down import costs and the consumer price index.

It is worth mentioning that although SNB President Martin Schlegel stated in mid-May that officials had had productive discussions with Washington on central bank exchange rate intervention measures, the US Treasury still included Switzerland in its list of economies closely monitored for exchange rate policies in its semi-annual report on exchange rate policies last week.