US dollar falls, metals show mixed performance, coking coal and coke, polysilicon rise over 1%, European container shipping falls over 4% [SMM Daily Review]

SMM News on June 16:

Metal Market:

As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper, SHFE lead, and SHFE tin all rose, with SHFE copper up 0.19% to lead the gains, while SHFE zinc fell 0.5% to lead the losses. The % changes of the remaining metals fluctuated slightly. The main alumina contract fell 0.73%, while the main casting aluminum contract rose 0.31%.

In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract fell 0.7%, the main silicon metal contract rose 0.41%, the main polysilicon contract rose 1.93%, and the main European container shipping contract fell 4.04%.

The ferrous metals series rose collectively. Rebar rose 0.98%, HRC rose 1.07%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal rose 2.84%, and coke rose 1.9%.

In the overseas market, as of 15:03, overseas market base metals generally rose, with only LME aluminum and LME tin falling. LME tin fell 0.24%, LME aluminum fell 0.04%, and LME zinc rose 0.53%. The remaining metals all rose slightly.

In the precious metals segment, as of 15:03, COMEX gold fell 0.47%, and COMEX silver rose 0.48%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.08%, and SHFE silver rose 0.45%.

Market conditions as of 15:03 today

》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic Aspect:

[National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Industrial Added Value Above Designated Size Grew 5.8% in May, with the National Economy Generally Stable and Making Steady Progress] The NBS showed that in May, the industrial added value above designated size actually increased by 5.8% YoY. On a MoM basis, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 0.61% compared to the previous month. From January to May, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.3% YoY. By industry, in May, 35 out of 41 major industry categories maintained YoY growth in added value. Among them, the coal mining and washing industry grew by 5.5%, the oil and natural gas extraction industry grew by 5.3%, the agricultural and sideline food processing industry grew by 7.6%, the liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry grew by 4.1%, the textile industry grew by 0.6%, the chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry grew by 5.9%, the non-metallic mineral products industry fell by 0.6%, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry grew by 4.8%, the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry grew by 8.1%, the general equipment manufacturing industry grew by 6.3%, the special equipment manufacturing industry grew by 2.3%, the automobile manufacturing industry grew by 11.6%, the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry grew by 14.6%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 11.0%, the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry grew by 10.2%, and the electric power, heat production, and supply industry grew by 2.0%. Overall, in May, as the combined effects of policies continued to unfold, the effects of stabilizing the economy and promoting development became evident. The national economy maintained a generally stable development trend with steady progress, fully demonstrating the resilience and vitality of China's economy. However, it should also be noted that there are many external uncertainties and destabilizing factors, and the endogenous momentum for expanding domestic demand still needs to be strengthened. The foundation for sustained economic rebound and improvement still needs to be consolidated. 》Click to view details

[NBS: The real estate market continues to move towards stabilization and recovery] Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and director of the NBS's Department of Comprehensive Statistics of National Economy, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that since the beginning of this year, China has implemented more proactive macro policies, increased counter-cyclical adjustments, and accelerated the implementation of major national strategies and the development of security capabilities in key areas ("two major" policies) as well as the program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins ("two new" policies). These efforts have effectively enhanced the vitality of consumption, driven production growth, and promoted transformation and upgrading, fully demonstrating the important role of macro policies in stabilizing economic operations. In the next stage, China has sufficient reserves in its policy toolbox, and macro policies have room for maneuver. They can be dynamically adjusted and actively responded to according to changes in the situation, and will continue to safeguard the stable operation of the economy. Fu Linghui stated that since the beginning of this year, with the accelerated implementation of various policies to stabilize the real estate market, the market has continued to move towards stabilization and recovery. Judging from the situation in May, the operation of the real estate market was generally stable. The YoY decline in housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to narrow, and the inventory of commercial housing continued to decrease. From the perspective of market transactions, under the influence of various policies to stabilize the real estate market, real estate sales remained basically stable. From January to May, the sales area and sales volume of newly-built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% YoY respectively, basically flat with the figures from January to April. Market transactions in some first-tier and second-tier cities were relatively active, with the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing maintaining growth. From the perspective of market prices, the YoY decline in newly-built commercial residential housing continued to narrow. From the perspective of commercial housing inventory, the area of commercial housing pending sale in May decreased by 7.15 million m² compared to the end of April, marking a decrease for three consecutive months. Fu Linghui emphasized that overall, the policies to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market have continued to show effects, and the operation of the real estate market was generally stable in May. However, it should be noted that the real estate market is still in the process of adjustment. Market confidence still needs to be continuously restored, and the supply-demand relationship in the market still needs to be improved. Continuous efforts are still needed to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market. 》Click to view details

►On June 16, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 7.1789 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 15:03, the US dollar index fell by 0.08% to 98.04. This week marks a "super central bank week," with attention focused on the US Fed's statements regarding inflation and monetary policy in the second half of the year. The University of Michigan's US consumer sentiment index for June rose to 60.5, compared with a forecast of 53.5. Consumers' 12-month inflation expectations fell to 5.1%. Long-term inflation expectations declined to 4.1%. As Sino-US trade tensions eased, US consumer confidence improved for the first time in six months, though households remained concerned about the trajectory of the economy. Despite widespread expectations that the US Fed would keep interest rates stable, the market eagerly anticipated signals of possible interest rate cuts in the coming months.

Macro:

Today, data such as the eurozone's total reserve assets in May, the US New York Fed's manufacturing index for June, and the US New York Fed's manufacturing index for the next six months' expectations in June will be released. In addition, the US New York Fed's manufacturing index for the next six months' expectations in June.

Crude oil:

As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets rose simultaneously, with US oil up 0.74% and Brent oil up 0.55%. On Friday, prices surged 7% as renewed tensions in the Middle East heightened fears that geopolitical conflicts could spread across the region and severely disrupt oil exports from the Middle East.

It is understood that the latest developments have heightened concerns about potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane. Approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption, or around 18-19 million barrels per day of oil, condensate, and fuel oil, passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Most of the crude oil and refined product exports from OPEC members Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran transit through the Strait of Hormuz, with few viable alternative routes.

Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, said, "Buying is driven by the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, with no signs of resolution in sight. However, as seen on Friday, there has been some selling due to concerns about overreaction." Tazawa added that the market is monitoring potential disruptions to Iran's oil production from Israeli strikes on energy facilities, while heightened concerns about disruptions to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could significantly boost oil prices.

Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), currently produces around 3.3 million barrels of oil per day and exports over 2 million barrels of crude oil and fuel. So far, Israeli attacks on Iran's oil and natural gas infrastructure have not affected production or exports from the region. However, concerns persist that Israel could destroy Iran's oil facilities, depriving it of a major source of revenue and driving up oil prices. Analysts and OPEC observers say that the idle oil production capacity that OPEC and its allies, including Russia, have increased to offset any disruptions is roughly equivalent to Iran's production. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

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