JPMorgan Chase CEO Warns: US Economy to Worsen Soon

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, recently stated that the impact of the US government's previous measures to boost the economy has waned, and the US economy may face some difficulties in the coming months, urging businesses and investors to prepare accordingly.

At a conference on Tuesday, Dimon pointed out, "I think real economic data may soon deteriorate."

Despite survey data showing a decline in consumer and business leader confidence in the face of the Trump administration's tariff policies, total employment and consumer spending in the US continue to grow.

Dimon downplayed the significance of the survey data, stating that "consumers and businesses have never accurately judged economic turning points," but he also noted that the future process of a "soft landing" for the economy may not be smooth.

"Employment will decline slightly, and inflation will rise slightly—hopefully just slightly," he added, mentioning that the decrease in immigration is another complicating factor.

In recent days, large-scale protests against Trump's immigration policies have continued to spread across multiple US cities, with Trump having dispatched National Guard and Marine Corps troops to quell the unrest. However, the situation has not improved but has instead escalated.

Additionally, data released by the US Department of Labor on Wednesday showed that the full impact of Trump's across-the-board tariff hikes has yet to be fully realized, with US CPI inflation in May falling short of expectations across the board.

In fact, Dimon has maintained a cautious or negative outlook on the economic prospects in recent times, and his comments on Tuesday were not particularly pessimistic compared to his previous remarks.

At the end of last month, Dimon stated that after the US government and the US Fed's "massive overspending" and quantitative easing, the US bond market would "collapse" under the weight. He called on the Trump administration to steer the US onto a more sustainable path.

Dimon pointed out on Tuesday that if Trump sticks to his initial tariff plans, he expects the US economy to enter a recession, but the situation appears better than anticipated.

He believes that Trump's tariff policies have already begun to have a negative impact on the economy, although these effects are just beginning to emerge. He mentioned that many individuals and businesses had previously purchased a lot in advance to avoid tariffs, but this was only temporary, and such advance purchases have now ended.

Dimon also warned about the private credit sector, which has become a booming business on Wall Street and is considered a potential area of concern during economic downturns. The CEO explained that the risks of private credit are different for banks and investors—banks are responsible for arranging these transactions and then removing them from their books, while investors hope to achieve long-term returns from this asset class.

"If I were a fund manager, would I think it's a good time to buy credit assets? No. I wouldn't buy these assets at these prices and spreads today."