Metals show mixed performance, with SHFE tin leading the gains, ferrous metals series generally rising, and coking coal and coke up over 1%. Pay attention to US CPI data [overnight market].

SMM News on June 11:

Metal Market:

As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE tin led the gains with a 0.54% increase, while SHFE zinc and SHFE aluminum rose by 0.25%, and SHFE nickel fell by 0.25%. The declines in other metals fluctuated slightly. The main alumina contract fell by 0.24%, and the main casting aluminum contract rose by 0.13%.

Most ferrous metals series prices rose, with only stainless steel declining by 0.6%. Iron ore rose by 1%, HRC rose by 0.68%, and coking coal and coke collectively rose by over 1%, with coking coal up by 1.68% and coke up by 1.01%.

Overseas market base metals also showed mixed performance. LME copper fell by 0.24%, while LME aluminum and LME lead rose, but with relatively small fluctuations in gains. LME aluminum rose by 0.04%, and LME lead rose by 0.03%.

In the overnight precious metals market, COMEX gold fell by 0.3%, and COMEX silver fell by 0.38%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.23%, and SHFE silver fell by 0.43%.

As of 8:18 a.m. on June 11, the overnight closing market performance from last Friday

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Macro Front

Domestic Aspects:

[The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Further Promoting the Shenzhen Comprehensive Reform Pilot to Deepen Reform, Innovation, and Opening-up"] The Opinions propose to advance the integrated reform of the education, science and technology, and talent systems, strengthen industry-university-research collaboration and deep integration, and improve the support and guarantee mechanisms for overseas talent recruitment. The Opinions also propose to promote the high-quality development of the real economy through empowerment by finance, technology, data, etc., establish a new system for a higher-level open economy, and improve a scientific, refined, and rule-of-law governance model.

US Dollar Aspects:

The US dollar index rose by 0.03% overnight to close at 99.05, as the market awaited the outcome of trade negotiations between China and the US. This week, investors' focus will be on the US May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to be released on Wednesday. Before the US Fed's policy meeting next week, investors are vigilant for any signs of intensifying inflation, and this report may provide clues on the impact of tariffs. It is expected that the US Fed will also keep interest rates unchanged next week. Traders anticipate nearly two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each before the end of the year.

Other Currency Aspects:

The British pound declined against the US dollar due to weak UK employment data indicating a sluggish labour market.

At the New York close, the US dollar rose by 0.2% against the Japanese yen to close at 144.92 yen. The US dollar has fallen by about 8.5% against the yen since the beginning of the year. During the market turmoil triggered by Trump's tariffs, the yen has generally benefited from net safe-haven capital flows.
In the three months ending April, UK wages rose by 5.2%, slower than expected, pushing the British pound down 0.4% against the US dollar to $1.3496.

The Bank of England will hold a meeting next week and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Money market traders anticipate around 48 basis points of interest rate cuts by the end of the year, up from 39 basis points before the data release.

The euro was flat against the US dollar at $1.1420, while the Australian dollar, often seen as a proxy for risk sentiment, changed relatively little, trading at $0.6519.

Data highlights:

Today, China's M2 money supply annual rate for May (time uncertain between June 11-17), China's total social financing for the year to date as of May (time uncertain between June 11-17), China's new yuan loans for the year to date as of May (time uncertain between June 11-17), the US May CPI annual rate (unadjusted), the US May core CPI annual rate (unadjusted), the US May energy CPI annual rate (unadjusted), the US June IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), and Australia's ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending June 8 will be released.

In addition, He Lifeng visited the UK from June 8 to 13 and held the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism.

Crude oil update:

As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets fell, with US crude down 0.84% and Brent crude down 0.66%. US crude remained near a seven-week high as investors monitored progress in China-US economic and trade consultations. A survey found that OPEC's oil production increase in May was lower than planned, as Iraq further cut production to make up for earlier overproduction, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE also increased production by less than their quotas. According to CCTV News, on June 10 local time, the European Commission officially unveiled a draft of the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, primarily targeting Russia's energy revenues and banking sector, including restrictions on Russia's Nord Stream natural gas pipeline and adding more Russian banks to the sanctions list. The draft also proposes lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil from $60 per barrel to $45 per barrel. EU member states will begin discussing the draft this week.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that US crude oil production will decline next year as falling commodity prices force drillers to reduce rig counts faster than expected. The EIA said US crude oil production will fall from about 13.42 million barrels per day this year to about 13.37 million barrels per day in 2026. Previously, the EIA had expected US production to increase to 13.49 million barrels per day next year.

Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday showed that US crude oil inventories fell last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose. The report showed that as of the week ending June 6, US crude oil inventories fell by 370,000 barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 3 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels. Analysts had previously forecast that US crude oil inventories would fall by 2 million barrels, distillate inventories would increase by approximately 800,000 barrels, and gasoline inventories would increase by 900,000 barrels last week.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release official weekly US oil inventory data on Wednesday. (Wenhua Comprehensive)