Metals show mixed performance, with SHFE zinc and SHFE nickel falling by over 1%, while foundry aluminum surges by over 5% on its first trading day [SMM Daily Review]

SMM News on June 10:

Metal Market:

As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE zinc and SHFE nickel both fell by over 1%, with SHFE zinc down 1.27% and SHFE nickel down 1.06%. SHFE copper, SHFE lead, and SHFE tin all rose, with SHFE lead leading the gains with a 0.9% increase, SHFE copper up 0.27%, and SHFE tin up 0.21%. The main alumina contract fell by 0.31%, while the main cast aluminum alloy contract surged over 5% on its debut trading day, closing at 19,190 yuan/mt with a 4.49% increase as of the daytime close.

》Surged over 5% on debut! Cast aluminum alloy makes a "strong start" - can it sustain the momentum? [SMM Flash News]

In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 0.16%, the main polysilicon contract fell by 0.83%, and the main silicon metal contract rose by 0.82%. The main European container shipping contract fell by 0.95%.

The ferrous metals series showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell by 1.46%, iron ore fell by 0.85%, and HRC closed flat at 3,089 yuan/mt. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal rose by 0.51% and coke rose by 0.48%.

In the overseas market, as of 15:09, overseas market metals showed mixed performance. LME lead rose by 0.38%, LME copper fell by 0.44%, and LME tin fell by 0.42%. LME lead led the gains with a 0.38% increase, while the price fluctuations of other metals were relatively small.

In the precious metals segment, as of 15:09, COMEX gold fell by 0.26% and COMEX silver fell by 0.6%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 0.03% and SHFE silver rose by 0.62%.

Market movements as of 15:09 today

》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic Aspect:

[NDRC: Will propose a batch of major strategic tasks, policy initiatives, and engineering projects in the field of people's livelihood] The State Council Information Office held a press conference at 10 a.m. today, inviting Xiao Weiming, Deputy Secretary-General of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and relevant officials from the Ministry of Education, Ministry of Civil Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, and National Health Commission to introduce policies on further safeguarding and improving people's livelihood and answer questions from reporters. Xiao Weiming, Deputy Secretary-General of the NDRC, stated at the press conference that the NDRC will implement the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee, work with all parties to prepare the "15th Five-Year Plan" based on thorough surveys, and propose a batch of major strategic tasks, policy initiatives, and engineering projects in the field of people's livelihood to incorporate people's livelihood construction into the national "15th Five-Year Plan" development blueprint. 》Click to view details

[PBOC's Open Market Operations Net Withdraw 255.9 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 198.6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 454.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan was realized on the day.

►On June 10, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1840 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar side:

As of 15:09, the US dollar index rose by 0.3% to 99.32. In the US, inflation expectations among the public pulled back in May, and the market held certain expectations for the US Fed to cut interest rates in H2. This week, US inflation data will be released, which is expected to provide more guidance on the direction of the US Fed's policy. A report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday showed that in May, US citizens' anxiety about the future inflation path eased somewhat, and their views on their personal financial situations became more optimistic. The New York Fed pointed out in its May Survey of Consumer Expectations report that inflation expectations across all timeframes it measures had pulled back. Respondents' one-year inflation expectation was 3.2%, compared to 3.6% in April; the three-year inflation expectation was 3%, compared to 3.2% in April; and the five-year inflation expectation was 2.6%, compared to 2.7% in April.

Macro side:

Today, data such as China's M2 money supply annual growth rate for May, China's total social financing for the year to date as of May, China's new RMB loans for the year to date as of May, the UK's unemployment rate for April (ILO standard), the UK's average weekly earnings including bonuses for the three months to April (annual growth rate), Australia's ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending June 8, Switzerland's consumer confidence index for May (seasonally adjusted), and the Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index for June will be released. In addition, the deadline for the EU's public consultation is June 10, 2025. This date marks the final window of peace before the EU considers imposing retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth up to 95 billion euros. He Lifeng visited the UK from June 8 to 13 and held the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism.

Crude oil side:

As of 15:09, oil prices in both markets rose together, with US crude oil up by 0.05% and Brent crude oil up by 0.13%. The market is looking forward to the results of the new round of China-US economic and trade talks. The overall macro atmosphere is optimistic, and oil prices continue to rebound towards the previous high resistance area. The progress of negotiations between the US and Iran on the nuclear agreement remains unclear, with significant differences between the two sides on key terms. US sanctions have caused buyers to waver in their procurement positions, and Iran's crude oil exports have been hindered.

OPEC+ ended its voluntary production cut policy that had lasted for two and a half years in April this year, clearly formulating a production increase plan for May-July, and beginning a new round of production increase cycle. It may continue to maintain a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels in August-September. However, from the perspective of actual implementation, this production increase process has not been smooth. According to Bloomberg, the actual crude oil production of eight OPEC countries that planned to increase production in May only increased by 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to April, far below the original target of 410,000 bpd. Among them, Saudi Arabia actually increased production by 110,000 bpd, while countries like Iraq, the UAE, and Kazakhstan, which often exceeded production quotas in the past, maintained relatively stable production levels this time, without further violations of the production agreement.

Taking a comprehensive view of the data from April to May, the total actual production increase of OPEC+ over these two months was only 100,000 bpd, far from the planned target of 550,000 bpd. The implementation of OPEC's subsequent production increase plans may face significant challenges, and there is considerable uncertainty about whether the expected production increase targets can be achieved as scheduled. This also implies that the degree of supply surplus in the crude oil market may not be as severe as previously estimated by the market. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

SMM Daily Review

►Stainless steel in the doldrums, raw materials under pressure, short-term nickel iron prices may be in the doldrums [NPI Daily Review]

►[SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] On June 10, nickel salt prices remained stable.

►[SMM MHP Daily Review] On June 10, Indonesian MHP prices rose slightly.