US dollar declines, metals show mixed performance, SHFE silver breaks through 9,000 yuan, hitting new highs repeatedly, coking coal and coke lead the declines [overnight market]

SMM News on June 10:

Metal Market:

As of the daytime close, base metals in both domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. In the overseas market, only LME zinc rose, up 0.17%. In the domestic market, SHFE copper and SHFE lead both rose by over 0.8%, with SHFE copper up 0.84% and SHFE lead up 0.81%, while SHFE zinc fell 0.9%. The % changes in other metals were relatively small. The main alumina futures contract fell 0.41%.

In the ferrous metals series, prices fell collectively. Iron ore fell 0.71%, stainless steel fell 0.51%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell 2.43% and coke fell 1.15%.

In the overnight precious metals market, COMEX gold fell 0.24%, while COMEX silver rose 0.42%, reaching a high of $37.03/oz during the session, a new high since March 2012. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.18%, and SHFE silver rose 2.07%, reaching a high of 9,020 yuan/kg during the session, hitting a new record high.

As of 8:04 on June 10, the overnight closing market on Friday

》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic Developments:

The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK, on the afternoon of June 9 (local time). CCTV News reporter learned that the meeting would continue on June 10 (local time).

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian hosted a regular press conference. A reporter asked whether China would open more "green channels" for rare earth export approvals. Lin Jian said that China's Ministry of Commerce had already responded to China's rare earth export control measures, and further information could be consulted.

[General Administration of Customs: China's Foreign Trade in Goods Grew 2.5% in the First Five Months, with Exports Up 6.3% YoY in May] The General Administration of Customs announced today (the 9th) that in the first five months of this year, China's total foreign trade in goods reached 17.94 trillion yuan, up 2.5% YoY, continuing the growth trend. In May, imports and exports totaled 3.81 trillion yuan, up 2.7%. In May alone, China's exports reached 2.28 trillion yuan, up 6.3%. Among them, exports to ASEAN, the EU, Africa, and the five Central Asian countries increased by 16.9%, 13.7%, 35.3%, and 8.8%, respectively. In the first five months of this year, China's exports of equipment manufacturing products reached 6.22 trillion yuan, up 9.2%, accounting for 58.3% of China's total exports. Among them, exports of EVs increased by 19%, construction machinery by 10.7%, ships by 18.9%, and industrial robots by 55.4%. In the first five months, China's equipment manufacturing products contributed 73% to the overall export growth, with the contribution rate reaching as high as 76.9% in May, providing strong support for the stable growth of foreign trade. 》Click to view details

SMM has compiled data on the import and export of some products in the metal industry based on data released by the General Administration of Customs, as detailed below:

》Click to view detailed data

[National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): CPI declined slightly in May, while the YoY increase in core CPI widened, and PPI fell 0.4% MoM]In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.2% MoM and 0.1% YoY. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.6% YoY, with the increase widening by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products fell 0.4% MoM, with the decline remaining the same as the previous month, and decreased 3.3% YoY, with the decline widening by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. China is boosting consumption with greater intensity and more targeted measures, fostering the growth of new quality productive forces. The supply-demand relationship in some sectors has improved, and prices have shown positive changes.》Click to view details

US dollar:

The US dollar fell 0.2% overnight to close at 99.02, as market participants consolidated gains following the better-than-expected US jobs report released last Friday and shifted their focus to trade prospects. Later this week, the US inflation report for May will come into focus, with investors and US Fed policymakers paying attention to the impact of trade restriction policies on the economy. US Fed officials have already indicated that they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates, and signs of economic recovery may solidify their stance. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), interest rate futures prices suggest that investors expect the US Fed to cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points later this year, possibly as early as October. Interest rate futures are pricing in only 47 basis points of rate cuts for 2025.

Other currencies:

In late New York trading, the US dollar fell about 0.2% against the Japanese yen to close at 144.55 yen, after rising for two consecutive weeks. The euro rose 0.3% against the US dollar to 1.1427 US dollars, as the market continued to digest the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy outlook released last week, which suggested that the ECB may be nearing the end of its easing cycle.

The British pound also rose against the US dollar, gaining 0.3% to 1.362 US dollars. The US dollar index, which measures the value of the US dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.2% to 98.942. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.6% to 0.6054 US dollars, and the Australian dollar rose 0.4% to 0.6522 US dollars, with trading remaining sluggish.

Data:

Data to be released today include China's M2 money supply YoY rate for May, China's total social financing for the year to date in May, China's new yuan loans for the year to date in May, the UK's unemployment rate for April (ILO standard), the UK's average weekly earnings including bonuses for the three months to April (YoY rate), Australia's ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index for the week ending June 8, Switzerland's seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index for May, and the Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index for June.

Additionally, the deadline for the EU's public consultation is June 10, 2025. This date marks the EU's final window of peace before considering retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth up to €95 billion. He Lifeng visited the UK from June 8 to 13 and held the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism.

Crude Oil:

As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets rose together, with US crude up 1.24% and Brent crude up 0.99%, both recording three consecutive days of gains. US crude touched a multi-week high, boosted by a weaker US dollar, while investors awaited news from the China-US trade talks, hoping that a deal would boost the global economic outlook and, in turn, stimulate demand.

The weaker US dollar provided some support to oil prices. The US dollar index fell 0.3%, making oil cheaper for investors holding other currencies. Analysts from energy consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a report, "This rally appears to be largely technically driven and could easily fade without fresh bullish news. There will be significant attention on the ongoing China-US trade talks."

Reaching a trade deal could support the global economic outlook and, in turn, boost demand for commodities, including oil. CCTV News reported that the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK. Reporters learned that the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism would continue on June 10 local time.

Data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that China's crude oil imports in May were 46.6 million mt, with cumulative imports from January to May reaching 229.615 million mt, up 0.3% YoY.

A survey showed that OPEC's crude oil production increase in May was below the target, as Iraq further cut production to make up for previous overproduction, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE also increased production by less than the allowed range. The survey showed that OPEC's oil production last month was 26.75 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 150,000 bpd from the total production in April, with Saudi Arabia contributing the largest increase. Morgan Stanley's team of commodity analysts said that OPEC's commitment to increase production by 411,000 bpd in May had not yet been fulfilled. The analyst team led by Martijn Rats said in a report, "Despite an increase in production quotas of about 1 million bpd from March to June, it has been difficult to detect any actual increase in production." (Wenhua Comprehensive)