US dollar declines, metals show mixed performance, with polysilicon and SHFE zinc leading the declines, while SHFE silver continues to hit new highs since listing! [SMM Daily Review]

SMM News on June 9:

Metal Market:

As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally rose, with SHFE zinc leading the declines with a 1.79% drop. The % changes of the remaining metals were all within 1%. SHFE lead and SHFE nickel both rose by over 0.4%, with SHFE lead up 0.48% and SHFE nickel up 0.47%. The main alumina contract fell by 1.47%.

In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract fell by 0.16%, the main silicon metal contract rose by 2.33%, and the main polysilicon contract fell by 2.24%. The main European container shipping contract fell by 2.55%.

In the ferrous metals series, most prices fell, with iron ore down 0.71% and stainless steel down 0.47%. HRC and rebar both fluctuated slightly. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose by 0.13% and coke fell by 1.22%.

In the overseas market, as of 15:05, overseas market base metals collectively rose except for LME zinc, which fell by 0.26%. LME copper, LME aluminum, and LME tin all rose by over 0.4%, with LME copper up 0.44%, LME aluminum up 0.43%, and LME tin up 0.44%.

In the precious metals sector, as of 15:05, COMEX gold fell by 0.14%, while COMEX silver rose by 0.75%, hitting a high of $36.525 per ounce during the session, a new high since March 2012, and recording four consecutive days of gains. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 1.02%, while SHFE silver rose by 1.77%, hitting a high of 8,912 yuan/kg during the session, a new all-time high since its listing.

Market conditions as of 15:05 today

》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic Aspects:

[General Administration of Customs: China's Foreign Trade in Goods Grew 2.5% in the First Five Months, with Exports Up 6.3% YoY in May] The General Administration of Customs announced today (the 9th) that in the first five months of this year, China's total foreign trade in goods reached 17.94 trillion yuan, up 2.5% YoY, continuing the growth trend. In May, imports and exports totaled 3.81 trillion yuan, up 2.7%. In May alone, China's exports reached 2.28 trillion yuan, up 6.3%. Among them, exports to ASEAN, the EU, Africa, and the five Central Asian countries increased by 16.9%, 13.7%, 35.3%, and 8.8%, respectively. In the first five months of this year, China's exports of equipment manufacturing products reached 6.22 trillion yuan, up 9.2%, accounting for 58.3% of China's total exports. Among them, exports of EVs increased by 19%, construction machinery by 10.7%, ships by 18.9%, and industrial robots by 55.4%. In the first five months, China's equipment manufacturing products contributed 73% to the overall export growth, with the contribution rate reaching as high as 76.9% in May, providing strong support for the stable growth of foreign trade. 》Click to view details

SMM has compiled data on the import and export of some products in the metal industry based on data released by the General Administration of Customs, as detailed below:

》Click to view detailed data

[National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): CPI declined slightly in May, while the YoY increase in core CPI widened, and PPI fell 0.4% MoM]In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.2% MoM and 0.1% YoY. Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI rose 0.6% YoY, with the increase widening by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products fell 0.4% MoM, with the decline remaining the same as the previous month, and decreased 3.3% YoY, with the decline widening by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. China is boosting consumption with greater intensity and more targeted measures, fostering the growth of new quality productive forces, improving the supply-demand relationship in some areas, and witnessing positive changes in prices.》Click to view details

►On June 9, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 7.1855 RMB per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 15:05, the US dollar index fell 0.28% to 98.94. The US added 139,000 non-farm payroll jobs in May, higher than the expected 126,000 but significantly lower than the previous 177,000, marking the lowest level since February this year. The US unemployment rate in May was 4.2%, in line with expectations and the previous reading. The year-on-year growth rate of average hourly earnings in the US in May was 3.9%, higher than the expected 3.7%, with the previous reading revised up to 3.9%. The market has scaled back its bets on interest rate cuts and now expects one in October. Meanwhile, US President Trump stated that he would soon announce his decision on the next Fed Chairman, adding that a "good Fed Chairman" would lower interest rates. The market expects the US Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its June 17-18 meeting, with policymakers assessing how tariffs will impact the economy. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, federal funds rate futures traders currently expect a 61% probability of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September or earlier, compared to 74% on Thursday.

Macro:

Today, data such as the global leading indicator for the turning point of the industrial production cycle in May, the final value of the US wholesale inventory monthly rate in April, the 1-year inflation expectations of the New York Fed in the US in May, and the 3-year inflation expectations of the New York Fed in the US in May will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that, at the invitation of the UK government, He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will visit the UK from June 8 to 13. During this period, the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism will be held with the US side.

Crude oil:

As of 15:05, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US oil down 0.2% and Brent oil down 0.26%. Oil prices fell on Monday, but the decline was limited, and most of the gains from last week were retained. The prospect of a China-US trade agreement boosted the risk appetite of some investors and supported oil prices.

Tim Evans of Evans Energy said in a report, "Over the past week, Brent crude oil rose to near the top of its recent trading range as equity market risk appetite increased amid easing tariff concerns, encouraging buying." The US non-farm payrolls report showed that the unemployment rate held steady in May, which seemed to increase the likelihood of a US Fed interest rate cut, further supporting the oil price rally last week.

Data released on the website of the General Administration of Customs on June 9 showed that China's crude oil imports in May were 46.6 million mt, and cumulative imports from January to May were 229.615 million mt, up 0.3% YoY.

After OPEC announced a significant production increase again in July on May 31, the prospect that the China-US trade agreement could support economic growth and increase oil demand outweighed concerns about increased OPEC supply. A research report released by HSBC on Friday stated that it is expected that OPEC+ will accelerate supply increases in August and September, which may increase the downside risk to the bank's forecast of a Brent crude oil price of $65 per barrel in Q4 2025. A research report by Capital Economics stated that it believes that this new accelerated production increase by OPEC+ will continue.

ING analysts led by Warren Patterson said in a report that the WTI discount to Brent crude oil continued to narrow due to increased OPEC production, mild growth in US crude oil supply, and the possibility of decreased production next year. US energy services company Baker Hughes said in its closely watched report that the number of oil and natural gas rigs operated by US energy companies fell for the sixth consecutive week this week, the first time since September 2023 that the number of rigs has declined for six consecutive weeks. Data showed that as of the week ending June 6, the number of active US oil rigs fell by 9 to 442, while the number of natural gas rigs increased by 5 to 114. (Webstock Inc.)

SMM Daily Review

►The market remained relatively stable at the beginning of the week, with spot prices temporarily steady [SMM EMM Daily Review]

►[SMM Hydrogen Cost Daily Review] 20250606