Hot Topics in the Aluminum Market in May:
- Price Forecast: Bullish and bearish factors intertwine in fundamentals; aluminum prices expected to fluctuate considerably in June (P5)
- As June begins, domestically, the macroeconomic environment leans bullish, but considering the time it takes for policies to take effect, the industry has yet to show significant feedback. The negative impact of overseas trade wars persists, necessitating vigilance against uncertainties in overseas macroeconomic conditions. Fundamentally, bullish and bearish factors intertwine in the domestic market. On the supply side, aluminum smelters are operating steadily, with a notable recent decrease in casting ingot production, affecting deliveries to major consumption areas. Social inventory has destocked beyond expectations, providing support for aluminum prices. On the demand side, downstream industries are entering the traditional off-season, compounded by the impact of overconsumption in the PV sector, leading to a pessimistic market outlook on demand and insufficient upward momentum for aluminum prices. Currently, with bullish and bearish factors intertwined in the fundamentals, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate considerably within the range of 19,700-20,500 yuan/mt. Continuous attention should be paid to the progress of tariff events, changes in aluminum ingot inventory, and variations in downstream orders.
- Bauxite: Monthly bauxite imports exceeded 20 million mt, with Guinea's bauxite imports hitting record highs (P6)
- Alumina: Operating capacity of alumina decreased by 0.46% MoM in May; profitability recovery expected to lead to a rebound in operating capacity in June (P9)
- Primary Aluminum: Notable decrease in casting ingot production in north China in May, with a significant increase in the proportion of liquid aluminum (P14)
- Inventory: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory showed an unexpectedly rapid destocking trend in May, with expectations to exceed the 500,000 mt mark in June (P18)
- Aluminum Auxiliary Materials: Reduced cost pressure on prebaked anodes has improved corporate profitability, while weak demand for raw material petroleum coke has dragged down market trends (P20)
- Aluminum Scrap: Deep-seated competition between "rigid supply" and "lack of demand elasticity" for aluminum scrap in May, with prices expected to continue fluctuating at highs in June (P23)
- Aluminum Plate/Sheet and Strip: Brief export recovery in May for aluminum plate/sheet and strip could not offset weak domestic demand, with operating rates expected to remain in the doldrums in June (P27)
- Aluminum Foil: Operating rates for aluminum foil under triple pressure in May, with the off-season in June potentially offering a chance for a phased rebound (P28)
- Aluminum Extrusion: At the transition node between off-season and peak season in May, new orders in emerging sectors could not mask weakening demand in traditional sectors (P29)
- Aluminum Wire and Cable: Operating rates for aluminum wire and cable stabilized but weakened in May, with the industry awaiting the start of a new cycle (P33)
- Aluminum Rod: Supply side of aluminum rod maintained high-level operations in May, with weakening demand leading to a rapid decline in processing fees (P35)
- Secondary Aluminum Alloy: ADC12 prices defied the trend and fell in May amid prominent supply-demand imbalance, with the off-season in June continuing and futures listing becoming a new variable (P36)
- Primary Aluminum Alloy: The primary aluminum alloy industry maintained a weak but stable pattern in May, with companies remaining relatively optimistic about subsequent operating performance (P38)
For more details, please refer to the China Aluminum Monthly Report (Chinese) 20250606
