After the New "531" Policy, Household PV Enters a Window Period: How Can Leading Module Manufacturers Seek Further Growth?

In February this year, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Deepening the Market-Oriented Reform of New Energy On-Grid Tariffs to Promote High-Quality Development of New Energy" (NDRC Price Document [2025] No. 136, hereinafter referred to as "Document 136"). It stipulates that from May 31, 2025, all newly added distributed PV projects must be absorbed through electricity spot market transactions. Subsidies have completely exited the historical stage, and "531" also marks the period when incremental projects fully enter the market.

After "531," the domestic distributed PV trend remains uncertain, with strong industry sentiment of wait-and-see. Before the SNEC PV&ES International Solar Photovoltaic (Shanghai) Conference & Exhibition (hereinafter referred to as the "SNEC Exhibition"), multiple module company executives mentioned in exchanges with Cailian Press reporters that distributed PV, especially household PV installations, is expected to enter a window period. According to industry insiders, the adjustment could be completed in as little as one quarter, after which the fundamental logic from development to investment decisions will completely change.

Some analysts believe that, at least in H2 this year, the "main battlefield" of domestic PV installations will revolve around distributed commercial and industrial scenarios as well as ground-mounted centralized scenarios. Before the SNEC Exhibition, LONGi (601012.SH) launched lightweight dual-protection modules. Analysts suggest that the new product serves both as a "warm-up" for the exhibition and indicates that module manufacturers are targeting more niche scenarios in the commercial and industrial market. Additionally, products or solutions from multiple module manufacturers for centralized scenarios are expected to be heavily promoted during the SNEC Exhibition.

Household PV Enters Window Period

Yan Yan Niu, President of LONGi's Distributed Business China Region, stated in exchanges with media including Cailian Press that the market remains positive after "531," though some adjustments in approach are needed.

When discussing the impact of "531," she frankly noted that the industry is expected to experience a window period from June to September. During this time, the industry needs to collectively reflect on Document 136 and consider how to transform and innovate its future business. The distributed PV market after "531" will undoubtedly move closer to the load side.

She believes that, regionally, distributed demand will further concentrate in high-load electricity consumption areas such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. In terms of scenarios, many energy-intensive industries, zero-carbon parks, transportation, aluminum processing, and clearer carbon footprint requirements for export products will drive robust demand for PV products.

Industry analysts believe that the implementation of the new policy will gradually phase out the subsidy-dependent "full-grid" model. PV terminals will fully transition to self-consumption or market-based trading models, imposing higher requirements on the ability to forecast electricity demand on the user side. Meanwhile, the application of ESS and intelligent monitoring systems has become standard for projects, further enhancing their economic viability and market competitiveness.

Some analysts have pointed out that the introduction of electricity price fluctuation mechanisms is essentially a key step in the reform of electricity marketization, with the core objective of optimizing resource allocation through price signals. Another individual from a leading module producer stated in an exchange with a reporter from Cailian Press that the ecological structure of downstream customers in the current PV industry chain is undergoing significant changes, the impact of which will require time to observe.

He believes that more market-oriented pricing mechanisms (such as time-of-use electricity prices) are gradually being established, which will fundamentally alter the basic logic of project development and investment decisions—shifting from a model that relied on fixed expected yields to one based on volatile returns (such as peak-valley electricity price spreads). Consequently, the corresponding investment evaluation systems and power plant design approaches need to be adjusted accordingly.

He further stated that, considering that specific pricing mechanisms are being formulated and implemented by individual provinces and cities, the entire transformation process is undoubtedly a vast and complex systematic endeavor, and completing adjustments within a quarter would already be considered a rapid pace.

The industry anticipates that industrial and commercial PV will be relatively less affected.

Distributed application scenarios mainly include household and industrial and commercial uses. Niu Yanyan believes that the new policy may have a relatively significant impact on household PV first, particularly for investment-oriented projects, as electricity prices have become unstable and non-fixed, making it difficult to calculate returns.

She also stated that the market impact on industrial and commercial uses is not as significant, especially for owners with self-consumption needs, who will still proceed with normal installation and construction.

However, it should be noted that, following the early-stage development of distributed PV, the available space for developing high-quality distributed rooftop resources is becoming increasingly limited at this stage. Domestic module producers have begun to focus on addressing the challenges of developing the remaining rooftop resources.

Wang Xiaohui, Chief Engineer of Shendu Design Group, stated in an exchange that energy-saving renovation and upgrading through the installation of PV facades will enable more and more existing buildings to become photovoltaic buildings. According to preliminary statistics, China's existing building area is approximately 60 billion m², with a PV installation capacity of over 1/5, or more than 10 billion m². The annual constructible area is approximately 4 billion m², indicating significant potential in both industrial and civil building sectors.

Currently, the development of distributed PV is rapid, but a large number of steel-structured factory buildings were not originally designed with the load requirements of PV systems in mind, resulting in severely insufficient roof load-bearing capacity. After conducting market surveys, it was found that 20% of rooftops cannot be equipped with PV systems due to issues with rooftop load capacity. Wang Xiaohui believes that for the development of rooftop resources, it is necessary to further refine scenario-based research to achieve market size expansion.

Module manufacturers are primarily promoting differentiated products for specific scenarios. The load-bearing capacity of the main roof structure is one of the key factors limiting the large-scale deployment of PV systems. Constrained by multiple technical conditions, such as load capacity, adaptability to extreme weather, hot spot effect suppression, and ease of post-installation maintenance, the development of distributed PV is shifting from focusing on single-technology breakthroughs to exploring comprehensive solutions tailored to different scenarios.

On the eve of this year's SNEC exhibition, LONGi Green Energy Technology launched the Hi-MO X10 lightweight dual-protection module, which is expected to be scaled up and introduced to the market in mid-June. This module weighs 7.2 kg per m², more than 30% lighter than conventional modules. As it eliminates or significantly reduces the need for rooftop reinforcement, it is primarily targeted at low-load industrial and commercial rooftops, such as old factories, lightweight color steel tiles, and truss structures. LONGi Green Energy Technology stated that this product can transform existing rooftops into incremental capacity.

Intensified Competition in the Existing Market of Large-Scale Bases

Due to the accelerated implementation of large-scale wind and solar power projects during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and the rapid penetration of distributed PV in eastern load centers, domestic new PV installations have continued to grow significantly. According to statistics from the National Energy Administration, in the first four months of this year, new solar installations reached 104.93 GW, with a YoY growth rate of 74.6%. Driven by policy-induced installation rushes, new PV installations in April alone reached 45.22 GW, a surge of 214.7% compared to the same period last year.

Some industry insiders have pointed out that considering the policy changes affecting distributed PV, especially household PV, large-scale bases in western regions will remain the primary focus in 2025. This scenario places extremely high demands on module reliability, power generation, and weather resistance, and requires adaptability to different geographical environments (such as deserts, plateaus, and water surfaces).

Since the beginning of this year, leading module manufacturers have generally intensified their efforts in this scenario. In April, JA Solar Technology (002459.SZ) released the DeepBlue 4.0 Pro desert module solution, which, in addition to improving power generation performance, further enhances the "self-cleaning" capability of desert modules in high-concentration sand and dust environments. Jinko Solar (688223.SZ), on the other hand, has introduced TOPCon technology modules with superior temperature coefficients and bifacial power generation performance tailored for high-temperature desert scenarios.

Trinasolar (688599.SH) was the first in the industry to propose the concept of extreme climate solutions. According to the head of Trinasolar's business, the solutions primarily involve a combination of software and hardware, robust modules, and algorithm applications. In operation, sensors measure the thickness of snow. When combined with the TrinaSolar Smart Cloud Platform, once the snow thickness meets the preset conditions, a snow removal command can be issued with one click. This protects modules and brackets from collapsing under the weight of snow and avoids power generation losses caused by snow obstruction.

Regarding the impact of Document No. 136, Trinasolar stated that under the changing strategies of electricity trading, the value of tracking brackets in the Chinese market needs to be reassessed. The global average penetration rate of tracking brackets is 39%, reaching 80% in the US, Latin America, and the Middle East, but only 3%–5% in China. Tracking brackets are more widely used in overseas markets, primarily because electricity prices overseas are mainly determined through trading and free transactions. After the comprehensive encouragement of new energy entering the market, the application of tracking brackets in ground-mounted PV power plants is worth noting.

A representative from a module company told a reporter from Cailian Press that large-scale wind and solar power bases in China, leveraging their advantages in large-scale development, are considered important supports for the growth of installations. In the competition for this market segment, customers place greater emphasis on stability in extreme weather conditions, including high-temperature resistance, high bifaciality, sandstorm resistance, and hail resistance. Module companies not only provide full-cycle solutions from product design to operation and maintenance but also engage in in-depth cooperation with central state-owned enterprises and local governments to compete for orders for large-scale base projects. Module products for centralized scenarios are also accelerating towards differentiation.