RBC Capital Markets Assesses the Prospect of Soaring Copper Prices, with Future Trends Dependent on Progress in Global Trade Situation

On Thursday, June 5, analysts at RBC Capital Markets stated that copper inflows into the US ahead of potential tariffs have supported the metal's price surge year to date.

In a report sent to clients on Wednesday, the analysts noted that copper prices on the COMEX in New York have risen approximately 11% since early 2025, outperforming prices in other global markets.

The brokerage firm highlighted that North American copper equities have also gained around 9% year to date, listing Capstone Mining Corp and HudBay Minerals as the sector's "top picks."

The price rally was fueled by US President Trump's February announcement of an investigation into potential new tariffs on copper imports. Copper is considered critical for manufacturing everything from EVs to power grids.

This investigation, coupled with investors capitalizing on rising premiums, triggered substantial copper inflows into the US. Government data showed March imports totaled over 123,000 mt, compared to 58,000 mt and 76,000 mt in February and January respectively.

However, RBC strategists led by Sam Crittenden pointed to signs of weakening demand and supply, adding that should Trump opt against implementing metal tariffs, it could act as a "negative catalyst" for prices.

Concurrently, RBC analysts identified near-term risks on the demand side for copper prices. They cited potential headwinds from the continuation of Trump's aggressive trade agenda and the seasonal construction slowdown during summer.

"The trajectory in coming months will depend on global trade developments," the analysts wrote, "but any positive progress between China and the US would signal improved demand prospects through 2026."

Xinhua News Agency reported from Beijing on June 5 that President Xi Jinping held a phone conversation with US President Trump that evening, where both leaders agreed their teams should continue implementing the Geneva consensus and promptly arrange new talks.