Metals Collectively Rise, with SHFE Tin and Polysilicon Leading the Gains, Coking Coal Gains Over 2%, European Containerized Shipping Surges [SMM Midday Review]

SMM June 4 News:

Metal Market:

As of the midday close, all base metals in the domestic market rose. SHFE copper increased by 0.68%, SHFE zinc by 0.92%, SHFE aluminum by 0.63%, SHFE lead by 0.48%, SHFE tin by 2.64%, and SHFE nickel by 0.94%.

In addition, alumina rose by 0.87%, lithium carbonate by 0.74%, silicon metal fell by 0.14%, and polysilicon rose by 2.52%.

The ferrous metals series all rose. Iron ore increased by 0.86%, rebar by 0.61%, and HRC by 0.95%. Stainless steel rose by 0.28%. In the coking coal and coke sector: coking coal increased by 2.16%, and coke by 1.62%.

In the overseas metal market, as of 11:46, all LME metals rose. LME zinc increased by 0.3%, LME copper and LME lead rose slightly, LME aluminum by 0.51%, and LME tin and LME nickel both rose by 0.4%.

In the precious metals sector, as of 11:46, COMEX gold increased by 0.272%, and COMEX silver by 0.12%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 0.16%, and SHFE silver rose by 0.26%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the Europe-to-Asia container shipping index rose by 5.38%, closing at 2168.8.

As of 11:46 on June 4, some midday futures market movements:

》June 4 SMM Metal Spot Prices

Spot and Fundamentals

Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was quoted at a discount of 130 yuan/mt to a premium of 0 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 65 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 190 yuan/mt to a discount of 170 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 180 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 78,295 yuan/mt, up 115 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 78,180 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot Market: Inventories in Guangdong have increased significantly for four consecutive days, with current inventories up 14,300 mt from the previous low... 》Click for details

Macro Front

Domestic:

[Announcement: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on June 6 regarding economic and trade cooperation between China and South Asia and the 9th China-South Asia Exposition] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on June 6, 2025 (Friday). Yan Dong, Vice Minister of Commerce, and Liu Yong, Vice Governor of Yunnan Province, will introduce the economic and trade cooperation between China and South Asia and the 9th China-South Asia Exposition, and answer questions from reporters.

[PBOC's Open Market Operations Net Withdraw 600 Million Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 214.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 215.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 600 million yuan was realized on the day.

[Market Liquidity Remains Generally Controllable in June Thanks to Central Bank’s Stimulus Policy Package]Against the backdrop of continued monetary policy efforts, the funding situation remained loose, enabling a smooth transition across the month. As of the close on June 3, funding rates across all tenors declined, with the DR007 weighted average interest rate, an indicator reflecting liquidity conditions, falling sharply by 11.49 basis points to 1.5496%. Analysts believe that market liquidity remains generally controllable. It is expected that under the combined influence of precise reverse repo operations and fiscal expenditures in early June, funding rates are likely to remain low, and sentiment in the bond market may stabilize and rebound. (Financial News Agency)

►The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on June 4 was 7.1886 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 11:46, the US dollar index rose by 0.03% to 99.3. The US dollar index fluctuated rangebound, as uncertainties in the global trade situation offset the impact of US employment data boosting risk appetite. CCTV News reported that on June 3 local time, the US White House issued a statement saying that US President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%. The tariff policy took effect at 00:01 a.m. Eastern Time on June 4, 2025. US economic data showed that job openings in the US increased by 191,000 in April, but layoffs rose by 196,000, the largest increase in nine months, suggesting that conditions in the labour market are softening. The market is now focusing on the US May non-farm payrolls report due on Friday. US Fed policymakers reiterated on Tuesday that they should exercise caution in formulating monetary policy, as the trade war initiated by Trump continues to inject significant uncertainty and risks of economic weakness into the US economic outlook.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warned on Tuesday that the global economic slowdown is exceeding expectations due to the severe impact of the Trump administration's trade policies on the US economy, exacerbating market concerns about the global economy. The OECD forecasts that the US economy is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2025, down from the previous forecast of 2.2%. Global economic growth is expected to be 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026, lower than the previous forecasts of 3.1% (for 2025) and 3.0% (for 2026) made in March this year.

Other currencies:

The final reading of Japan's services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May was revised up to 51.0. Although this is lower than April's 52.4, it is an improvement from the preliminary reading of 50.8, indicating that service sector activity expanded for the second consecutive month. Driven by the upward revision of Japan's services data and increased safe-haven demand, the yen rebounded mildly in the Asian session on Wednesday, exerting downward pressure on the US dollar. Despite the cautious stance expressed by the Bank of Japan Governor, market expectations for an interest rate hike in 2025 still persist. Meanwhile, the US dollar is constrained by expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, concerns over the US fiscal deficit, and uncertainties surrounding trade tensions, limiting the upside of the USD/JPY pair to the resistance zone of 144.30. (Huitong Finance)

Data Releases:

Today, data including Australia's Q1 seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate, Q1 year-on-year GDP growth rate, Russia's SPGI Services PMI for May, the final UK SPGI Services PMI for May, the US ADP employment change for May, Canada's total reserve assets for May, Brazil's seasonally adjusted SPGI Services PMI for May, the Bank of Canada's overnight lending rate on June 5, and the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for May will be released. Additionally, notable events include: FOMC voter for 2025 and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee participating in a Q&A session; FOMC voter for 2027 and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, along with Fed Governor Lisa Cook, attending the "Fed Listens" event; and the Bank of Canada announcing its interest rate decision.

Crude Oil:

As of 11:46, crude oil futures have all dropped slightly, with US crude oil down 0.33% and Brent crude oil down 0.32%. Oil prices have declined due to the loosening of the supply-demand balance following an increase in OPEC production and lingering concerns over the global economic outlook amid tariff tensions.

Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday showed a decline in US crude oil inventories last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose. The API report indicated that US crude oil inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 4.7 million barrels, and distillate inventories rose by approximately 760,000 barrels in the week ending May 30. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release crude oil inventory data on Wednesday. Surveys suggest that analysts expect US crude oil inventories to have declined by approximately 1 million barrels in the week ending May 30. (Webstock Inc.)

Spot Market Overview:

►Inventories continue to rise sharply, with spot premiums falling continuously [SMM South China Copper Spot]

►Market demand remains weak, with spot premiums and discounts plummeting [SMM North China Copper Spot]

►Copper cathode rod exports continue to grow positively on a YoY basis. Can the upward trend continue in May amid tariff concerns? [SMM Analysis]

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