Will A-shares Continue to Fluctuate in June? Will Technology and Consumption Remain the Main Themes? Strategies from Ten Major Securities Firms Are Here

The latest strategic viewpoints from the top ten securities firms have just been released, as detailed below:

Soochow Securities: June may mark the starting point of a new round of "East Rising, West Declining" trades

The US dollar cycle is pivotal to the "East Rising, West Declining" trade. Historical experience shows that during periods of global liquidity easing and a weakening US dollar, non-US assets tend to strengthen, and the Chinese market will also benefit. Looking ahead, a weak US dollar remains the baseline assumption. Due to multiple factors such as ongoing disruptions from Trump's policies, the US government's debt pressure, and potential risks in the fundamentals, the US dollar is expected to trend weaker. Since the US dollar index turned down again in mid-May, it has once again fallen below the 100 mark. It is judged that the US dollar will continue to decline in June, possibly breaking below the previous low. The liquidity spillover driven by a weak US dollar will lead the A-share market to embark on a new round of "East Rising, West Declining" trades.

In recent years, the value/growth style of the A-share market has been increasingly influenced by the US dollar cycle, specifically showing that growth stocks tend to outperform during periods of a weak US dollar. As June approaches, the technology sector will witness a series of catalytic events, and its prospects are expected to remain robust. Meanwhile, the valuations and liquidity of growth stocks will also benefit from a weak US dollar environment, potentially exhibiting better resilience. In terms of specific allocation directions, the main themes and industrial trends to focus on include: AI edge devices (including AI phones, AI glasses), AI large models, humanoid robots, controllable nuclear fusion, deep-sea technology, and autonomous driving.

Zhongtai Securities: Maintaining the "switch from high to low" viewpoint at the current juncture

The current market is at a critical period marked by the interplay of domestic and foreign policy variables. Domestically, the "15th Five-Year Plan" sets the tone, and reforms in public funds may reshape the market. Externally, intensifying tariff disputes between Europe and the US, as well as increased policy uncertainty within the US, will all have complex impacts on the market.

At the current juncture, the "switch from high to low" viewpoint is still maintained, with a relatively optimistic stance on the technology sector. The overall market is expected to continue rotating rapidly among various hot topics in Q2. Investors should avoid chasing highs and instead focus on bottom-fishing opportunities, with this allocation logic remaining unchanged. 1) While maintaining a base portfolio of stable assets such as dividend stocks, gold, long-term bonds, and blue chips, focus on opportunities to bottom-fish in safety-related assets and technology stocks; 2) The high growth momentum in upstream AI computing power, servers, etc., as seen from Q1 earnings reports, is expected to continue into H2. Moreover, the update of the new version of DeepSeek may trigger investors' risk appetite for the technology sector; 3) The Trump administration has recently intensified technology restrictions on industries such as chips, coupled with China's increased emphasis on technology at the policy level. Among these, the direction of domestic substitution, represented by semiconductors, will also present certain opportunities. Overall, in Q2, the fundamentals of core city real estate and other endogenous momentum are gradually showing a "turning point," but total data may remain resilient under the "rush to switch exports." Current overall policies still maintain strong determination, but there is a high level of attention on the capital market, which may provide some support to the market.

Hua Jin Securities: June Continues to Fluctuate Upward with Technology and Consumption Remaining the Main Themes

In June, A-shares may continue to fluctuate upward. (1) Policies in June may be more proactive, with some uncertainty regarding external events. First, positive policies in June may accelerate implementation. Second, external events such as Sino-US tariff negotiations in June face some uncertainty. (2) The fundamentals in June may continue to improve. First, economic data in June may continue to show strength: firstly, the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and the "618" shopping season may keep consumption growth at a high level; secondly, overseas restocking may lead to a rebound in export growth in June; finally, accelerated policy implementation may maintain high growth in manufacturing and infrastructure investment in June, although real estate investment growth remains weak. Second, profit growth in June may continue to be in a recovery cycle. (3) Liquidity in June may remain loose. First, repeated expectations of interest rate cuts overseas have limited impact on domestic easing. Second, the inflow of funds into the stock market in June may improve; historically, foreign and margin financing flows tend to increase in June; after the holiday, margin financing and foreign capital may also return.

Technology and consumption remain the main themes, with some core assets and cyclical sectors possibly offering investment opportunities. First, new consumption is likely to generate excess returns in June; second, policy encouragement points to TMT and consumption, with high-growth industries mainly concentrated in non-ferrous metals, TMT, and machinery. It is recommended to continue to allocate on dips: first, sectors with upward policy and industry trends such as computer (domestic software, autonomous driving), robotics, military, media (AI applications, gaming), electronics (semiconductors), and communications (computing power); second, sectors where fundamental expectations may marginally improve, including innovative drugs, electric vehicles, food, social services, trade retail, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals.

China Galaxy: Technology Will Remain the Medium and Long-Term Investment Theme

Recently, the sector rotation speed has increased, and the market's volatile pattern has not changed, with no significant increase in trading volume, still dominated by existing players. There is considerable uncertainty in the external market. On May 29, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals granted the Trump administration's request to temporarily suspend the previous ruling by the US International Trade Court. Although a phased tariff agreement between China and the US has been reached, temporarily alleviating trade pressure, the Trump administration's policies remain unpredictable. In the short term, the market may continue to maintain a fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to changes in external tariffs and the pace of domestic policy implementation. With the support of a series of domestic policies, the market's adjustment space is limited. Meanwhile, several major financial policies are expected to be announced during the Lujiazui Forum from June 18 to 19, which are likely to support market expectations. It is recommended to focus on structural opportunities. In the long term, the trend of the A-share market will still reflect the principle of "taking our own path as the main focus". As the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. effectively plays the role of a "stabilization fund" and policies vigorously promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, the A-share market will have a more solid foundation for stable operation.

Allocation opportunities across three main themes: First, assets with a relatively high safety margin. Against the backdrop of significantly increased uncertainty in the external environment, the dividend sector, which has relatively strong earnings certainty and overall stable dividend returns, possesses defensive attributes. Second, the logic of the "technology narrative" in the A-share market is clear. The revised restructuring measures will help promote the participation of early-stage technology innovation enterprises in mergers and acquisitions. Technology will remain the main theme for medium and long-term allocation, with short-term focus on sub-sectors with lower valuations. Third, the big consumption sector boosted by policies. Economic data for April shows that the trade-in policy for consumer goods continues to be effective. Recently, the concept of new consumption has been repeatedly active. As uncertainty in the external environment increases, expanding domestic demand has become a long-term strategic move, highlighting the importance of boosting consumption.

Dongguan Securities: The market's overall risk appetite is expected to receive systematic support.

From the perspective of the market environment in June, overseas, the US tariff policy has been fluctuating, and the subsequent path of interest rate cuts by the US Fed will highly depend on subsequent economic data and tariff negotiation progress. Domestically, with the easing of Sino-US trade disputes, the implementation of a series of incremental policies by the "one bank, one bureau, one commission", and the concerted efforts of all parties to promote the effective implementation of established policies and accelerate the strengthening of incremental policy reserves, all these provide strong support for the domestic economic fundamentals. In the capital market, the current concerted efforts to stabilize the capital market have injected key momentum into boosting investor confidence.

Looking ahead to June, as Sino-US trade relations tend to ease, quasi-stabilization funds have played a crucial supporting role in hedging tail risks in the market. With the concerted efforts of all parties to promote the effective implementation of established policies, accelerate the strengthening of incremental policy reserves, and the continuous entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, it is expected to continuously improve the market's microstructure and enhance investor confidence. Against the backdrop of the combined forces of policies and funding, the market's overall risk appetite is expected to receive systematic support. However, considering that there may be certain selling pressure above, the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, supported by the economy's resilience and the accumulation of policy tools, the broader market still has upward momentum. Sector Allocation: Overweight financials, utilities, non-ferrous metals, and TMT.

BOC Securities: Exports May Exceed Expectations This Year

From overseas industry inventory perspectives, most sectors are in the mid-stage of restocking except midstream industries like automobiles, machinery equipment, and transportation equipment. Downstream consumer goods-related sectors show more pronounced restocking, reflecting resilient overseas demand. Leading indicators suggest short-term overseas restocking demand will likely persist, with potential for exports to surpass expectations this year.

Market-wise, since May, sectors tied to external demand have outperformed. The Geneva agreement between China and the U.S. temporarily boosted market sentiment, while April's stronger-than-expected exports corrected overly pessimistic expectations. Subsequent uncertainties around export and external demand strength remain the market's focus. Unlike 2018, tariff policies now pose significantly reduced impacts on domestic fundamentals and markets. Fundamentally, ample policy buffers mitigate economic downside risks, with domestic demand data and tariff progress influencing policy expectations. Market-wise, upside room depends on economic recovery strength, while "quasi-stabilization funds" contain downside risks. Uncertainty from Trump-era trade policies may prolong "diversion trade," with resilient demand potentially driving exports above expectations and strengthening external demand chains.

GF Securities: China-U.S. Relations, Fiscal Stimulus, and DeepSeek's Tech Breakthrough May Trigger A-Share Market Breakout

After April's oversold rebound, A-shares fluctuated rangebound near pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with only innovative drugs showing sectoral trends amid mostly thematic rotations. Looking ahead, China-U.S. relations, fiscal stimulus, and DeepSeek's tech milestone could serve as key triggers to escape this tight range.

Absent domestic fiscal or bilateral progress, tech sector developments may prove pivotal. After three months of adjustment, tech stocks—especially AI-related segments—now meet prerequisites for a rebound: 1) TMT turnover ratios hover at the lower bound of 2023's AI narrative range, signaling potential momentum; 2) Since April's reciprocal-tariff rebound, margin balances stagnated at yearly lows, leaving room for incremental funding. Thus, June's concentrated tech giant product launches may prove decisive.

Ping An Securities: New Quality Momentum Gathers Strength, Tech Growth Breaks Through

Overseas, the US tariff policy faces multiple uncertainties from domestic judicial rulings and external negotiations, while Nvidia's Q1 results exceeded expectations again. Domestically, the manufacturing sector's prosperity margin rebounded in May, with high-tech industry profits showing positive trends; expectations for financial policies have increased. Overall, the current changes in the external environment still carry uncertainties, and the importance of self-reliance and controllability in domestic technology and the resilience of domestic demand continue to rise.

Domestic policy support and the positive development of industries towards innovation are expected to continue to support the medium-term upward potential of the equity market. Structurally, attention should be paid to two main lines: First, the growth style represented by domestic technology and high-end manufacturing, such as the defense and military industry with upward industry prospects, and the direction of self-reliance and controllability in technology represented by semiconductors; second, high-quality consumer assets (new consumption/pharmaceutical and biological, etc.) that benefit from policies supporting the expansion of domestic demand.

Huaxi Securities: A-shares in June Still in a Window Period for Market Recovery

A-shares in June remain in a window period for market recovery. Recently, market trading sentiment has pulled back, mainly due to the repeated changes in the US tariff policy overseas. In addition, the slow pace of Sino-US trade negotiations may partly be due to tactical considerations in negotiations. Subsequent Phase II Sino-US consultations will remain a key influencing factor for market risk appetite. On the other hand, the strength of domestic medium and long-term patient capital is growing. By promoting the construction of long-term market stabilization mechanisms and signaling regular "market support," regulators will strongly support the bottom range of A-shares.

·In terms of industry allocation, maintain a moderately balanced allocation. Attention should be paid to precious metals, public utilities, new consumption, AI applications (software, hardware), etc. In terms of themes, attention should be paid to: military industry, self-reliance and controllability, mergers and acquisitions, etc.

Everbright Securities: Consumption is Expected to Remain One of the Key Momentums for Economic Recovery

The most severe period of short-term external risk disturbances may have passed, but vigilance is still needed regarding potential reversals in Trump's subsequent policies. Recently, domestic policies have remained actively implemented, and it is expected that subsequent policies will continue to be rolled out. With the US and China hitting the "pause" button on "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days, exports may maintain high growth in the short term, and consumption is expected to remain one of the key momentums for economic recovery. Amidst the interplay of internal and external factors, it is expected that the index will remain volatile overall in June.

Definite Main Lines: 1) Domestic consumption. Expanding domestic demand has been a key focus of recent domestic policies, and it is expected to continue to receive policy catalysts in the future. In addition, the overall performance of the consumer industry is more resilient. Attention should be paid to industries such as household goods, food processing, professional services, and leisure food. 2) Domestic substitution. Attention should be paid to two clues: performance certainty and thematic investment. The former focuses on industries with a high proportion of imports from the US and strong domestic supply capabilities, including publishing, decoration materials, etc. The latter focuses on industries with a high proportion of imports from the US but with domestic supply capabilities expected to improve, such as aviation equipment, medical devices, animal health, and chemical pharmaceuticals. 3) Underallocated sectors by funds: The "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Public Funds" may have a profound impact on the asset allocation of the fund industry. Some sectors that are underallocated by funds are worth paying attention to in the medium and long-term, including banking, non-banking financial services, utilities, transportation, and other industries. However, in the short-term, it is necessary to be cautious about the potential expectation deviations that may arise from over-interpretation.