National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): The PMI for May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sector's prosperity level.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the operating conditions of China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in May, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sector's prosperity level.

I. Operating Conditions of China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index

In May, the manufacturing PMI stood at 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting an improvement in the manufacturing sector's prosperity level.

By enterprise size, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and above the threshold; for medium-sized enterprises, it was 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month and below the threshold; for small enterprises, it was 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month but still below the threshold.

Looking at the sub-indices, among the five sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index was above the threshold, the supplier delivery time index was at the threshold, while the new orders index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were all below the threshold.

The production index was 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising above the threshold, indicating an acceleration in production activities of manufacturing enterprises.

The new orders index was 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a rebound in market demand prosperity in the manufacturing sector.

The raw material inventory index was 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month but still below the threshold, indicating a narrowing decline in the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing sector.

The employment index was 48.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the employment prosperity of manufacturing enterprises.

The supplier delivery time index was 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and at the threshold, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing sector was basically flat compared to the previous month.

II. Operating Conditions of China's Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index

In May, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month but still above the threshold, indicating a continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector overall.

By industry, the business activity index for the construction industry was 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; for the service industry, it was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. By industry, the business activity indices for railway transportation, air transportation, postal services, telecommunications, radio, television, and satellite transmission services, internet software, and information technology services were all above 55.0%, indicating a relatively high prosperity level; while the business activity indices for the capital market services and real estate industries were all below the threshold.

The new orders index was 46.1%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a rebound in market demand sentiment in the non-manufacturing sector. By industry, the new orders index for the construction industry was 43.3%, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous month; the new orders index for the service sector was 46.6%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.

The input prices index was 48.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, remaining below the threshold, indicating that the overall level of input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises in their business activities was lower than that of the previous month. By industry, the input prices index for the construction industry was 48.0%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the input prices index for the service sector was 48.2%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.

The selling prices index was 47.3%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, remaining below the threshold, indicating that the overall decline in selling prices in the non-manufacturing sector narrowed. By industry, the selling prices index for the construction industry was 47.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the selling prices index for the service sector was 47.3%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month.

The employment index was 45.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating that the employment sentiment in non-manufacturing enterprises was basically stable. By industry, the employment index for the construction industry was 39.5%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month; the employment index for the service sector was 46.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

The business activity expectations index was 55.9%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, still within a relatively high sentiment range, indicating that most non-manufacturing enterprises remained optimistic about market development. By industry, the business activity expectations index for the construction industry was 52.4%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous month; the business activity expectations index for the service sector was 56.5%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.

III. Performance of China's Composite PMI Output Index

In May, the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the production and business activities of Chinese enterprises continued to expand overall.

Interpretation of China's PMI in May 2025 by Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics: Manufacturing PMI Rebounds, Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Continues to Expand in May

On May 31, 2025, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China's PMI. Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation.

In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that China's overall economic output continued to expand.

I. Rebound in Manufacturing PMI

In May, the manufacturing PMI stood at 49.5%, indicating an improvement in the prosperity level compared to the previous month.

(1) Accelerated production by enterprises. The production index was 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising above the threshold, indicating an acceleration in manufacturing production activities. The new orders index was 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. By industry, the production and new orders indices for agricultural and sideline food processing, special equipment, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace equipment, and other industries were all above 54.0%, showing rapid growth in both supply and demand. However, for industries such as textiles, chemical fibers, rubber and plastic products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, both indices were below the threshold, indicating insufficient release of production and demand.

(2) PMI for large enterprises rose above the threshold. The PMI for large enterprises was 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion territory. Their production and new orders indices were 51.5% and 52.5%, respectively, up 1.7 and 3.0 percentage points from the previous month. The PMI for medium-sized enterprises was 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, with the prosperity level pulling back. The PMI for small enterprises was 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, showing some improvement in the prosperity level.

(3) Continued expansion in high-tech manufacturing. By key industry, the PMI for high-tech manufacturing was 50.9%, remaining in the expansion territory for four consecutive months and continuing a good development trend. The PMIs for the equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries were 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively, up 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, with both showing a rebound in prosperity levels. The PMI for high energy-consuming industries was 47.0%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating low market activity.

(4) Rebound in both import and export indices. The new export orders index and the import index were 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, up 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points from the previous month. Some enterprises involved in trade with the US reported in the survey that foreign trade orders were accelerating their restart, and the import and export situation had improved.

(5) Improved market expectations. The expected index of production and business activities was 52.5%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that manufacturing enterprises' confidence in the recent market development remained generally stable. Among them, the expected indices of production and business activities for industries such as agricultural and sideline food processing, food, beverage, and refined tea, automobiles, railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment all remained above the relatively high prosperity threshold of 56.0%, with related enterprises being more optimistic about industry development.

II. Continued Expansion in Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index

In May, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, slightly down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month but still above the threshold, indicating that the non-manufacturing sector generally continued to expand.

(I) The service sector's business climate improved slightly. The business activity index for the service sector was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. By industry, driven by the "Labour Day holiday" effect, residents' travel and dining consumption were relatively active. The business activity indices for industries such as railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, and catering rebounded significantly, all entering expansion territory, indicating increased market activity. Meanwhile, the business activity indices for industries such as postal services, telecommunications, radio, television, and satellite transmission services, as well as internet software and information technology services, remained above 55.0%, indicating a relatively high-growth business climate and maintaining a good growth momentum. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectations index was 56.5%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. It has consistently remained above 56.0% since the beginning of the year, indicating that most service sector enterprises remain optimistic about market development.

(II) The construction sector continued to expand. The business activity index for the construction sector was 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage point from the previous month, with expansion slowing down somewhat. Among them, the business activity index for civil engineering construction was 62.3%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, rebounding for two consecutive months, indicating that construction projects across regions continued to accelerate. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectations index was 52.4%, indicating that construction enterprises were relatively optimistic about market development expectations.

III. The composite PMI output index rebounded slightly

In May, the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the production and operation activities of China's enterprises generally continued to expand. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, were 50.7% and 50.3%, respectively.