(Pending) Release of SMM Metal Production Data for May 2025

Overview of Base Metal Production in May 2025

Copper Cathode

Aluminum

Alumina

Overseas Aluminum

According to SMM statistics, the total overseas aluminum production in May 2025 increased by 2.8% YoY, with an average monthly operating rate of 88.4%, up 0.2% MoM and 0.4% YoY.

This month, the Balco plant, owned by Vedanta in India, gradually commenced production of its new capacity. As planned, the plant will gradually start production in Q2 2025, with a total capacity of 1.015 million mt after expansion. It is expected to complete capacity ramp-up by Q1 2026. Meanwhile, its self-owned Sijilami bauxite mine commenced operations this month, which will help increase the capacity of the Lanjigarh alumina refinery and further secure the raw material supply for Balco's aluminum expansion. Additionally, Alcoa is evaluating the impact of the large-scale power outage in Spain on the production resumption progress of the San Ciprian aluminum smelter. As of early May, the plant's production resumption rate has increased from 6% to 8%-10%, and it is planned to achieve full production resumption by October 2025, with a designed capacity of 228,000 mt.

Looking ahead to June, with the release of new and resumed production capacities, overseas aluminum production is expected to increase by 2.9% YoY, and the operating rate is expected to rise to 88.5%.

Overseas Metallurgical-Grade Alumina

According to SMM statistics, the overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production in May 2025 increased by 3.7% YoY, with an average overseas alumina refinery operating rate of 81.9%, up 0.2% MoM and 2.7% YoY.

The increase in production this month mainly came from the capacity ramp-up of two alumina refineries in Indonesia: PT Borneo Alumindo Prima, controlled by Jinjiang Group, commenced production in January 2025 with a capacity of 1 million mt and is expected to reach full capacity in Q2; PT Borneo Alumina Indonesia, jointly controlled by Inalum and PT Antam, also has a capacity of 1 million mt and is currently close to full capacity. In addition, the Friguia alumina refinery of Rusal in Guinea is undergoing phased maintenance. The No. 1 roasting furnace was completed in Q1, and the No. 2 roasting furnace commenced maintenance in Q2, with completion expected in Q3. The plant's production in 2024 was 1.062 million mt, up 26.9% YoY. In 2025, the No. 5 roasting furnace has been put into operation after the completion of the No. 1 maintenance, and annual production is expected to further increase.

Looking ahead to June, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production is expected to increase by 4.2% YoY, and the operating rate will reach 82.1%.

Primary Lead

Secondary Lead

Refined Zinc

Refined Tin

According to SMM data based on market exchanges and processing, in May 2025, China's refined tin production decreased by 2.37% MoM and 11.24% YoY compared to the previous month. The sustained tightening of the tin concentrates and scrap tin supply chains has imposed rigid constraints on capacity, leading to a slight decline in the overall operating rate.

Yunnan Region: Interplay of Raw Material Shortages and Cost Pressures

Tin ore imports from Myanmar have remained below the 5,000 mt warning line for several consecutive months. Additionally, although the Bisie tin mine in the DRC resumed production in April, the first batch of ore requires a 4-6 week transportation period and is expected to enter the smelting process only in June-July, making it difficult to alleviate the raw material shortage in the short term. The treatment charges (TCs) for 40% grade tin concentrates in Yunnan have remained at historically low levels, further squeezing smelting profits. Some enterprises have entered seasonal maintenance or cut production due to insufficient raw materials.

As of May 28, the raw material inventory of smelters in Yunnan was generally below 30 days. Some enterprises faced inventory backlogs due to high-price stockpiling in the early period, but weak downstream demand has led to difficulties in shipping, resulting in sluggish spot premium transactions.

Jiangxi Region: Increasing Risk of Capacity Exit Amidst Pressure on the Scrap Recovery System

Jiangxi relies on the scrap tin recovery system, but the recycling volume has only reached 70% of the annual average since the Chinese New Year, with electronic scrap supply decreasing by 30% MoM. Policy uncertainties (such as those related to renewable resource policies) and trade frictions have hindered the circulation of scrap materials, with some suppliers hoarding materials in anticipation of price increases, driving up the smelting costs of recycled tin. The combination of declining processing fees and insufficient scrap materials has led to a 15%-20% YoY increase in the production costs of smelters in Jiangxi, with some capacity potentially exiting permanently.

Other Regions and Overall Supply-Demand Pattern

Inner Mongolia, Anhui, and Other Regions: In Inner Mongolia, production slightly rebounded in May due to production issues at captive mines, but it has not yet returned to previous levels. Regions such as Anhui have continued to experience operating rates below expectations due to shortages of scrap materials and tin concentrates.

Based on SMM estimates, refined tin production is expected to decline by 4.58% MoM in June. Driving factors: Some smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi plan to halt production for maintenance.

Refined Nickel

Nickel Pig Iron (NPI)

Indonesian NPI

Nickel Sulphate

Battery-Grade Manganese Sulphate

In May 2025, the production of high-purity manganese sulphate experienced a slight decline. Supply side, some manganese salt plants halted production for maintenance in May, while others maintained low operating rates, leading to a reduction in overall market supply. Demand side, the ternary cathode precursor market was not very active in May, with purchases of manganese sulphate primarily focused on the execution of long-term contracts and minimal spot purchases. Meanwhile, demand for manganese sulphate from other directions such as sodium-ion batteries and LFMP was also limited, failing to stimulate the market. Overall, the manganese sulphate market was in a state of weak supply and demand throughout May. Looking ahead to June, the downstream ternary cathode precursor market is expected to warm up, which is anticipated to drive a slight increase in the planned production of manganese salt plants.

Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide (EMD)

In May 2025, the production of EMD increased compared to the previous month and also achieved a certain year-on-year (YoY) growth. This was mainly due to the steady growth in demand from the downstream primary battery market and the good performance of enterprises' production status. Among them, the production of carbon-zinc and alkaline-manganese dioxide both rose slightly. Despite the warming of the downstream lithium manganate (LMO) market, the gradual preference for Mn3O4 as a raw material failed to significantly boost the production growth of LMO-type manganese dioxide. It is expected that by June 2025, new orders in the primary battery market will be relatively scarce, and the LMO market will also struggle to see significant demand growth. Overall, the production of manganese dioxide is expected to show a downward trend in June.

Mn3O4

In May 2025, the production of Mn3O4 increased slightly on a month-on-month (MoM) basis and maintained stable YoY growth. From the supply side, the spot price of Mn3O4 was relatively stable, with moderate profit margins, which drove higher production enthusiasm among enterprises and a relatively good production schedule. The increase in battery-grade Mn3O4 was significant. However, the electronic-grade market was in a traditional off-season, with relatively small fluctuations in supply. It is expected that by June 2025, the demand for LMO in the market is unlikely to increase significantly, and most enterprises have a certain amount of raw material inventory, which may lead to a decline in demand for battery-grade Mn3O4, resulting in a slight decrease in the overall planned production of the market.

High-carbon Ferrochrome

Stainless Steel

Electrolytic Manganese (EMM)

According to SMM data, in May 2025, China's EMM production increased by approximately 2% MoM and over 3% YoY. Despite the shutdown of some EMM plants in Guizhou for maintenance, leading to a decrease in production, EMM plants in Hunan resumed production due to sufficient raw material supply, and EMM plants in Guangxi increased their production schedules due to an increase in long-term agreement orders. Overall, the increase in production in some regions offset the decrease in others, coupled with the increase in the number of days in the calendar month of May, resulting in a slight increase in the overall supply of EMM.

Entering June, the overall operating rate of most manganese plants still does not exceed 70% of their capacity. Some shut-down EMM plants plan to resume production, but due to the fewer number of days in the calendar month of June, the overall supply of the manganese market is expected to decrease slightly.

SiMn Alloy

According to SMM data, in May 2025, China's total production of SiMn alloy decreased by over 6% MoM and over 20% YoY. The main reason for the decrease in SiMn production in May was that, despite the higher operating rates maintained in north China regions such as Inner Mongolia and Ningxia compared to south China due to cost advantages, the continuous decline in the spot price of SiMn led to sustained losses for SiMn plants, with some factories still experiencing production cuts or shutdowns, resulting in an overall decrease in production.

In June, as the steel market (the terminal market for SiMn) entered the off-season for consumption, the supply surplus of SiMn intensified, and the in-plant inventory of SiMn enterprises continued to rise, with silicon enterprises extending their production cuts and suspensions. Additionally, with fewer calendar days in June, it is expected that the production schedule for SiMn will continue to decrease in the coming market.

Silicon Metal

Polysilicon

In May, the actual production of polysilicon decreased slightly MoM from April, with a decline of approximately 0.2%. Despite some enterprises not reducing production as much as expected and some polysilicon enterprises with good sales increasing production, overall production decreased slightly MoM. In June, influenced by the resumption of production at some bases in the western region, production is expected to increase slightly. The overseas production of polysilicon is estimated to be around 5,100 mt, with no significant fluctuations in production from April to May. Production in June is expected to remain relatively stable, and the commissioning of Oman's 100,000 mt polysilicon capacity is expected to be delayed.

PV Module

Solar Cell

PV Film

In May, the total production schedule of the PV film industry decreased by 15.13% MoM. The main reason was the end of the installation rush, leading to a continuous decline in the production schedule of PV modules on the demand side, which drove down the demand for PV film and reduced its production. With the slowdown in demand for downstream PV modules, it is expected that the production of PV film will continue to decline in June.

PV-grade EVA

In May, the production schedule of PV-grade EVA decreased by 37.74% MoM. The first reason was the end of the installation rushes in "April 30" and "May 31," resulting in weak demand and a decline in the production of PV-grade EVA. The second reason was the maintenance and production switching at some petrochemical enterprises. According to SMM, demand is expected to continue to decline in June, and some petrochemical enterprises are still expected to switch production or conduct maintenance. It is anticipated that the production of PV-grade EVA will continue to decline in June.

PV Glass

In May, the monthly production of domestic PV glass increased, with a 4.9% MoM growth from April. The number of production days for domestic PV glass increased by one day in May. Meanwhile, furnaces that started production before May, especially those newly started in Q1, basically reached full production capacity in May, leading to an increase in supply. Additionally, although the demand from the module side has slightly weakened, the glass profit remained considerable this month, so glass enterprises have limited willingness to halt production. However, it is estimated that the domestic supply will decline in the long term due to the weakening market conditions. In June, despite a decrease of one production day on the domestic supply side, it is expected that the production of PV glass will continue to increase due to the further release of production capacity from furnaces that started production, with an estimated 0.68% MoM increase in production from May.

DMC

In May, the domestic production of silicone DMC increased by 6.48% MoM and decreased by 11.33% YoY from April. In May, the domestic silicone market remained relatively weak, with a significant decline in DMC prices. Under the trend of declining market conditions, the scale of production cuts at leading monomer enterprises began to increase. However, as the production cut cycles at most monomer enterprises ended earlier, they gradually resumed production this month. Therefore, the overall production in the silicone market showed a mixed trend of increases and decreases, with a comprehensive increase in production. In terms of subsequent operating rates, although some individual enterprises still plan maintenance in June, the overall scale of production cuts will be reduced. It is expected that the industry's silicone production in June will increase by 11.41% MoM compared to May.

Magnesium ingot

Magnesium alloy

Magnesium powder

Titanium dioxide

Sponge titanium

Light rare earth

Medium-heavy rare earth

NdFeB

Molybdenum concentrate

Ferromolybdenum

Ammonium paratungstate

Silver

Silver nitrate

Antimony ingot

Sodium pyroantimonate

Refined bismuth

Lithium carbonate

Lithium hydroxide

Cobalt sulphate

Co3O4

In May 2025, the production of Co3O4 increased both MoM and YoY. In terms of supply, despite the overall downward trend in the spot price of Co3O4 in May, it remained at a relatively high level compared to previous periods, with relatively optimistic profit margins. The operating rates of some enterprises increased, and production enthusiasm was high, driving a slight increase in market supply. In terms of demand, LCO enterprises maintained a strong wait-and-see attitude, focusing on just-in-time procurement and fulfilling existing orders, with relatively stable demand. It is expected that by June, the issue of tight raw material supply will still be difficult to resolve. Co3O4 enterprises will adopt a more cautious approach to production scheduling, with some enterprises possibly experiencing significant production cuts. Therefore, the overall market supply is expected to decline.

Ternary cathode precursor

Ternary cathode material

Iron phosphate

LFP

LCO

In May 2025, the production of LCO increased by 6% MoM. On the demand side, benefiting from the stimulus of this year's national subsidy policies, the overall performance of the consumer end-use market in H1 was positive, with robust downstream demand and sustained strong procurement demand for LCO. On the supply side, the price of LCO is mainly influenced by the costs of Co3O4 and lithium carbonate. The oversupply situation in the lithium carbonate market is expected to persist for a relatively long time. In the cobalt market, there is widespread anticipation regarding the finalization of mining policies in the DRC by the end of June, and the overall market atmosphere is relatively mediocre. Against this backdrop, LCO producers adhere to a sales-based production strategy, maintaining a relatively conservative inventory level.

In June, the downstream consumer market demand is expected to remain good, and the procurement volume of key LCO materials by leading battery cell enterprises is expected to remain at a relatively high level. Supported by this, it is expected that the production schedule of LCO enterprises will be basically flat compared to May, with a slight increase of about 1% MoM.

LMO

In May 2025, the production of LMO increased both MoM and YoY. Supply side, the production plans of most LMO producers were relatively stable. Although some small-scale enterprises lacking cost advantages reduced production, the operating rates of major enterprises increased, leading to a rise in market concentration and an overall upward trend in supply. Demand side, many battery manufacturers believed that the price of LMO had already reached a low level, prompting an increase in procurement activities and boosting market activity. Looking ahead, by June, the market will primarily focus on fulfilling existing orders, with the number of inquiries likely to decrease. It is expected that LMO production will experience a slight MoM decline, but the YoY growth rate is anticipated to remain stable.

*Survey Methodology

The SMM production survey is conducted by professional analysts through methods such as phone calls and on-site surveys to regularly track the monthly production of Chinese metal producers, and a report on China's metal production is issued accordingly.

During the survey, the basic coverage ratio of the sample is ensured and continuously expanded. Meanwhile, details such as capacity scale, geographical distribution, and enterprise nature are considered to reasonably select and allocate samples, ensuring that each sub-item of data is representative.

The results are released monthly through official channels such as the SMM official website (www.smm.cn), WeChat subscription account (SMM Today), and mobile website (m.smm.cn) at month-end.

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