SMM Analysis: NdFeB Production May Increase Slightly in 2025, with Rising Demand from NEVs, Home Appliances, and Robots as Highlights

On May 29, at the 2025 SMM (2nd) Rare Earth Industry Forum hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), Su Zhanpeng, an analyst from SMM's Rare Earth Division, shared insights on the transformation of the NdFeB industry driven by policies, the restructuring of supply and demand, and strategies for enterprises to break through.

NdFeB permanent magnets dominate the permanent magnet materials market, with high-performance NdFeB leading the industry's development.

Overview of Magnetic Materials: Currently, magnetic materials are mainly divided into two categories: permanent magnet materials and soft magnetic materials. Permanent magnet materials possess enduring magnetism and are the most widely used magnetic materials. Among them, NdFeB alloys and ferrite permanent magnet materials hold significant positions in the technological field. On the other hand, although soft magnetic materials can be magnetized under the influence of an external magnetic field, their magnetism is unstable and easily lost due to external factors.

Compared to ferrite, NdFeB exhibits higher BH and coercivity, enabling it to provide stronger magnetic performance in a smaller volume. Meanwhile, NdFeB permanent magnets, with their high energy density and stability, are irreplaceable in high-end industrial, new energy, and consumer electronics applications, while ferrite, due to its performance limitations, is mostly used in low-power, low-cost, low and mid-end applications.

Overview of NdFeB Permanent Magnet End-Use Markets

The end-use markets for NdFeB permanent magnets are mainly concentrated in six major areas: consumer electronics, NEVs, clean energy, new-type fields, energy-efficient elevators, and energy-efficient home appliances. Among these, emerging markets such as NEVs, energy-efficient home appliances, wind power generation, and industrial robots account for the majority of the market share.

In 2025, the increasing penetration of NEVs, the rise of emerging economies such as humanoid robots and the low-altitude economy, and the national subsidy policies in the home appliances and consumer electronics sectors will continue to inject new vitality into the future market of NdFeB. However, due to adjustments in the real estate market and technological breakthroughs in wind power raw materials, the demand for NdFeB in energy-efficient elevators and wind power generation has decreased.

Analysis and Forecast of NdFeB End-Use Demand

Affected by export controls, rare earth permanent magnet exports in April 2025 decreased by 45% YoY.

In April 2025, rare earth permanent magnet exports were affected by export controls, decreasing by 45% YoY and 51% MoM, but the cumulative exports from January to April increased by 2% YoY.

Due to the newly implemented export control measures in April, which had a certain impact on export trade, the recent export situation needs improvement. With the smooth recovery of exports of magnetic materials not containing medium-heavy rare earth and the sequential approval of licenses for those containing medium-heavy rare earth, rare earth permanent magnet exports will show a recovery trend, but it will be difficult to restore the original export volume in the short term.

China's NEV production in 2025 is expected to reach 17.89 million units, up approximately 29% YoY.

According to CAAM data, full-year 2024 NEV production and sales reached 12.888 million and 12.866 million units respectively, up 34.4% and 35.5% YoY. China's NEV market maintained growth momentum in 2024, with sales accounting for 40.9% of total auto sales. NdFeB demand from NEVs reached 57,000 mt, up 38% YoY.

The 2025 NEV policy framework features "central coordination + local refinement," promoting market penetration through consumption subsidies, technical support, and public sector pilot programs. NEV production continues its rapid growth trajectory. China's NEV output in 2025 is projected to reach 17.89 million units (up 29% YoY), with market penetration likely exceeding 55%, driving total NdFeB demand to 75,000 mt.

China's new wind power installations in 2025 are forecast at 87GW, up 8% YoY.

Per National Energy Administration statistics, full-year 2024 new wind installations totaled 80.454GW (up 6% YoY), with NdFeB demand at 9,735 mt (21% YoY decline in demand growth). Cost constraints have reduced permanent magnet direct-drive motor adoption, leading to decreased NdFeB demand from China's wind sector in 2024.

As a key end-use sector for rare earths, while recent demand growth from wind power has slowed, it remains a primary long-term driver for sustained rare earth demand. Projections indicate China's 2025 new wind installations will reach 87GW (up 9% YoY), generating NdFeB demand of 8,341 mt.

China's 2025 air conditioner production is expected to reach 320 million units, up 18% YoY.

NBS data shows full-year 2024 AC production reached 270 million units (up 10% YoY), with NdFeB demand at 21,000 mt (26% YoY demand growth). Since September 2024, government trade-in subsidies combined with promotional events like "Double 11" and year-end sales have boosted home appliance market performance.

In 2025, the home appliance sector demonstrates positive development trends driven by recovering demand, technological innovation, and policy support. Expanded national trade-in subsidies will significantly enhance AC production and sales. Projected 2025 AC output will grow to 330 million units (up 25% YoY), creating NdFeB demand of 26,000 mt.

It is projected that the production of energy-efficient elevators will reach 1.41 million units in 2025, down 3% YoY.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in 2024, the national production of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 1.458 million units, a 5.8% decrease YoY. The demand for NdFeB was 7,508 mt, with the YoY growth rate of demand declining by 6%. In 2024, adjustments in the real estate market had a certain impact on the demand for new elevator installations.

In 2025, the demand for elevators in infrastructure, industrial sectors, and retrofitting projects in old residential communities is expected to grow significantly. In particular, the export market in countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative provides new growth opportunities for Chinese elevator enterprises. It is projected that the production of energy-efficient elevators will reach 1.41 million units in 2025, down 3% YoY, and the demand for NdFeB will reach 7,368 mt.

It is projected that the production of mobile phones will reach 1.85 billion units in 2025, up 10% YoY.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in 2024, China's mobile phone production was 1.68 billion units, up 7.3% YoY, and the demand for NdFeB was 3,362 mt, up 7.3% YoY. In 2024, the "national subsidy" policy implemented by the state provided generous purchase subsidies for consumers, significantly stimulating market demand.

With the recovery of the mobile phone industry and technological innovations, the rare earth industry will gain new development opportunities. The increase in market demand for mobile phones will drive the expansion of capacity and technological progress in the rare earth industry. It is projected that the production of mobile phones will reach 1.85 billion units in 2025, up 10% YoY, and the demand for NdFeB is expected to reach 3,698 mt.

It is projected that China's industrial robot production will reach 941,000 units in 2025, up 55% YoY.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in 2024, China's cumulative industrial robot production was 608,000 units, up 41.4% YoY, and the demand for NdFeB was 12,147 mt, with a YoY growth rate of 41%. With the deepening implementation of the national "Intelligent Manufacturing 2035" action plan, combined with special government subsidies for robot industry clusters and the outbreak of emerging application scenarios, the acceleration of industrial automation transformation has been further promoted, leading to a continuous expansion in the demand for industrial robots.

The year 2025 is regarded as the first year of mass production for humanoid robots. The high growth prospects of this industry have created new growth opportunities for the rare earth permanent magnets market. It is projected that China's industrial robot production will reach 941,000 units in 2025, up 55% YoY. The demand for NdFeB is expected to reach 18,828 mt.

Review and Forecast of NdFeB Supply

It is projected that China's rare earth mining quotas will remain unchanged in 2025.

On April 4, 2025, the state announced the implementation of export control policies for medium-heavy rare earth, which partially affected the NdFeB market. Based on the current market analysis, SMM expects that rare earth mining quotas in 2025 will likely remain flat. This includes 251,000 mt of rock-type rare earth and 19,000 mt of ion-adsorption type rare earth.

On February 19, 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued the "Interim Measures for the Administration of Total Volume Control of Rare Earth Mining and Smelting and Separation (Draft for Public Consultation)" and the "Measures for the Administration of Traceability of Rare Earth Product Information". According to the "Interim Measures", the scope of rare earth ore products in China explicitly covers imported ores from overseas, monazite by-product ores, etc., incorporating imported resources into smelting and mining quotas for the first time to implement total volume control. It is projected that the rare earth smelting and separation quota will reach 350,000 mt in 2025.

NdFeB production in 2025 will continue to rise due to supply and demand dynamics.

As the largest producer of rare earth permanent magnet materials, China has maintained a steady growth trend in both production and consumption of rare earth permanent magnet materials in recent years. In 2024, China's rare earth permanent magnet material production was approximately 246,500 mt, up 14% YoY, and it is expected to reach 265,000 mt in 2025.

In 2025, several top-tier enterprises have plans to expand production, including those in Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, and Beijing. However, due to export controls, rare earth permanent magnet exports have decreased, affecting NdFeB production and potentially delaying enterprises' expansion plans.

China's Rare Earth Supply-Demand Pattern and Market Outlook

Monthly NdFeB Supply-Demand Balance and Future Forecast

The supply-demand gap widened in November-December 2024, primarily due to the concentrated release of end-use demand at year-end, such as wind power projects pushing to meet annual installation targets, leading to increased production in downstream end-use sectors and a surge in NdFeB demand. In January-February 2025, end-use demand decreased following the concentrated release in Q4 2024 and the approaching Chinese New Year, with magnetic material enterprises reducing their operations.

From April to July 2025, exports plummeted due to export controls, and with May being a traditional off-season, magnetic material enterprises received fewer orders due to weak end-use demand, resulting in lower supply. As end-use demand recovered in June, the supply-demand gap continued to widen. Starting from August 2025, with the gradual approval of export licenses, exports rebounded, and in September, demand surged due to advance stockpiling and production in the end-use market.

Review and Causes of NdFeB Price Trends from 2024 to 2025

Taking 52UH as an example, as of December 31, 2024, the price of 52UH blanks was reported at 390 yuan/kg, up 25 yuan/kg from 365 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year, representing a 6.8% increase.

As the most widely used blank grade in NEVs, the price of 52UH is influenced by end-use supply and demand and raw material prices, showing an overall upward trend. However, under the impact of export controls announced in April 2025, export orders decreased significantly, causing prices to pull back. With the gradual implementation of policies and the increase in end-use demand, it is expected that prices will rise slightly in the later period.

Outlook for Rare Earth Development Trends in 2025

Demand Side:

1. Affected by export control policies, the exports of rare earth permanent magnets have significantly decreased. Despite the sequential approval of export licenses, it will be difficult to restore the original export volume in the short term;

2. In 2025, China's NEV industry will enter a critical stage of high-quality development, with significant breakthroughs expected in industry scale, technological innovation, market penetration, and other aspects;

3. In 2025, new installations of wind power will continue to grow due to the influence of green transformation and low-carbonization. However, due to the iteration of raw material technologies, the demand for NdFeB in onshore wind power projects will decrease. Nevertheless, with the development of offshore wind power, the demand for NdFeB will surge. In the long run, it will remain the main driving force for the sustained growth of rare earth demand;

4. In 2025, the home appliance industry will show a positive development trend driven by the recovery of market demand, technological innovation, and policy support, leading to a continuous increase in the demand for NdFeB;

5. In 2025, energy-saving elevators will be affected by the adjustment of the real estate market, but the demand for elevators in infrastructure, industrial fields, and the installation of elevators in old residential communities will increase significantly, resulting in a relatively small decrease in the demand for NdFeB;

6. In 2025, with the recovery of the mobile phone industry and technological innovation, the increase in mobile phone market demand will drive the expansion of capacity and technological progress in the rare earth industry;

7. The application of humanoid robots in manufacturing, healthcare, services, security, and other fields continues to expand, and is expected to become a new growth point for rare earth downstream demand. This trend will become more pronounced in 2025 and the coming years;

Supply Side:

1. The rare earth mining quotas for 2025 have not yet been issued. Affected by export control policies and combined with the current market situation, it is expected that the mining quotas for 2025 will remain unchanged YoY;

2. The implementation of the "Administrative Measures for the Regulation of Total Rare Earth Mining and Smelting and Separation" and the "Administrative Measures for the Traceability of Rare Earth Product Information" will enhance the transparency of the circulation of rare earth products. Additionally, for the first time, overseas rare earth ores will be included in the smelting and separation quotas, facilitating macroeconomic regulation. The smelting and mining quotas will increase;

3. Affected by export controls, the exports of rare earth permanent magnets are restricted. However, driven by the increase in domestic end-use market demand, the production of NdFeB will increase, and the production of NdFeB in 2025 will increase slightly.

》Click to view the special report on the 2025 SMM (2nd) Rare Earth Industry Forum