China Urges U.S. to Cease Unilateral Tariff Hikes and Discriminatory Restrictions

[9.3 Morning Meeting Notes] The US Fed gained another hawkish voice, with the probability of a September rate hike rising to 66.9%. Governor Barr said he would support a rate hike if inflation fails to ease further. Combined with Warsh's earlier hawkish signals, the market is now focusing on the August CPI to be released on September 11—the most critical data before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Barclays now expects the US Fed to hike rates once each in September and December. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2610 contract drifted lower in early trading, closing the morning session at 126,690 yuan/mt, down 0.84%. The rising probability of a September Fed rate hike to 66.9%, the global bond sell-off, and a stronger US dollar are creating multiple headwinds. Nickel's own high inventory and weak demand remain unchanged. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 125,000-131,000 yuan/mt.

The 2026 El Niño event continues to intensify, with international climate monitoring indicating that this could be one of the strongest El Niño events on record. Indonesia is already experiencing significant heat and dry conditions, with El Niño expected to peak in September. According to SMM, the current water shortage at IMIP is mainly affecting carbon steel production, while nickel production has not yet been impacted. However, if the dry weather and water shortages persist, further pressure on industrial water supplies could increase the risk of nickel production cuts.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 02 Sep , 2026