9.3 Morning Meeting Minutes
Market hot topics:
Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has officially released the Nickel Ore Mineral Benchmark Price (HMA) for the first half of September 2026. The HMA for the first half of September is: nickel price at $16,733.33/mt (compared with $16,960/mt in the second half of August 2026), down $226.67, a decline of 1.33%; cobalt price at $55,852.67/mt; iron ore price at $1.43/mt; chrome ore price at $6.37/mt.
Based on SMM's internal calculation model, simulated calculations were performed for saprolite ore (iron content 20%, chromium 1%, cobalt 0.05%) and limonite ore (iron content 45%, chromium 2%, cobalt 0.10%). The HPM benchmark price changes for nickel ore of various grades are as follows:
Ni 1.2%: $45.65/wmt (down $0.64)
Ni 1.3%: $49.9/wmt (down $0.52)
Ni 1.4%: $54.07/wmt (down $0.5)
Ni 1.5%: $58.75/wmt (down $0.56)
Ni 1.6%: $63.64/wmt (down $0.63)
Macro:
(1) Another hawkish voice joins the US Fed as the probability of a September rate hike rises to 66.9%. Governor Barr said he would support a rate hike if inflation fails to ease further. Combined with Warsh's earlier hawkish signals, the market is now focused on the August CPI to be released on September 11—the most critical data before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Barclays now expects the US Fed to hike rates once each in September and December.
(2) Global bond markets suffered a broad sell-off, with risk assets under pressure. The 10-year US Treasury yield approached 4.79% (the highest since January 2025), while the 30-year yield stood at around 5.28%. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield broke above 3% (the first time since 1996). After Ueda Kazuo's remarks, the probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike in September surged to around 99%. This morning, the Nikkei 225 briefly plunged more than 1,700 points (-2.5%), and South Korea's KOSPI fell 2.19%. Overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped about 450 points (-0.85%), gold prices tumbled more than 2.3%, and the US dollar index turned higher.
(3) The eurozone August CPI rose to 3.3% YoY, the highest since September 2023 (core CPI at 2.4%). A 25-basis-point rate hike by the European Central Bank next week is almost a done deal. The US August ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6, missing expectations but still marking the eighth consecutive month of expansion. July JOLTS job openings came in at 7.27 million, slightly below expectations, while June data was revised down sharply by nearly 200,000.
(4) China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for August came in at 51.5, a two-month high and the ninth consecutive month above the 50 mark. Growth in export new orders hit a six-month high, but EXW prices declined for the first time this year.
Spot market:
On September 2, SMM #1 refined nickel averaged 127,250 yuan/mt, down 1,800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,600 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day, while mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -200 to 500 yuan/mt.
Futures:
The most-traded SHFE nickel 2610 contract drifted lower in early trading, closing the morning session at 126,690 yuan/mt, down 0.84%.
Short-term outlook:
The probability of a US Fed rate hike in September rose to 66.9%, while the global bond sell-off and a stronger US dollar created multiple headwinds. Nickel's own high inventory and weak demand pattern remain unchanged. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the 125,000-131,000 yuan/mt range.
Nickel sulphate
On September 2, SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average prices slipped.
Cost side, rate hike expectations heated up again, and nonferrous metals broadly fell further, pushing spot production costs for nickel sulphate lower. Supply side, some producers held elevated inventory levels and sought production cuts to destock, with supply edging slightly lower overall. Demand side, some downstream enterprises still relied mainly on long-term contracts, with weak sentiment for building spot order inventories and relatively low acceptance of nickel salt prices. Today, the Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor for upstream nickel salt smelters was 2.0, the purchasing sentiment factor for downstream precursor plants was 2.2, and the sentiment factor for integrated enterprises was 2.3 (historical data available in the database).
Looking ahead, spot market activity is expected to remain weak in the short term, keeping nickel sulphate prices under pressure overall.
NPI
On September 2, SMM reported that the high-grade NPI market sentiment factor was 1.79, down 0.03 MoM. The upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.90, down 0.05 MoM, and the downstream sentiment factor was 1.69, down 0.01 MoM. The high-grade NPI market remained weak, with market tension further intensifying. The continued weakness in stainless steel prices transmitted to the raw material side, with downstream steel mills intensifying efforts to push for lower prices. Mainstream bids fell to 1,100-1,110 yuan/nickel unit, while most steel mills adopted a wait-and-see stance and suspended purchases, leaving very limited actual transactions in the market. Market expectations diverged, with some participants believing prices still have downside room and expectations of discounted transactions beginning to emerge, while some suppliers maintained relatively high offers with room for negotiation. In the short term, the market is likely to continue consolidating and hit bottom.
Stainless steel
According to SMM on September 2, SS futures extended their previous decline and pulled back further, with intraday lows touching 13,695 yuan/mt. At the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 13,765 yuan/mt. In the spot market, dragged down by the continued weakness in SS futures, market expectations for a demand recovery during the peak season completely failed to materialize. Traders sold at lower prices to reduce their inventories, pushing stainless steel spot prices further down. However, with market sentiment pessimistic and prices trending weak, downstream buyers remained cautious and on the sidelines, with overall purchasing staying sluggish.
SS futures most-traded contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2610 was at 13,755 yuan/mt, down 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 565-1,015 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil fell 100 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled uncut edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi fell 25 yuan/mt, and in Foshan it fell 75 yuan/mt; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi fell 200 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi offers fell 200 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were flat.
This week, stainless steel futures showed an overall weak breakdown trend, with intensified volatility and a continuously declining price center. Futures were in the doldrums for most of the week. Midweek, an unexpected safety incident at a nickel-iron smelting line in east China raised supply concerns, briefly driving SS futures to shoot up and rebound. However, the positive impact was short-lived, and the core bearish logic remained unchanged. Futures subsequently weakened again and broke below the key 14,000 yuan/mt level, with bearish sentiment continuing to be released and trading sentiment staying weak. The spot market weakened in tandem with futures, with pre-peak-season demand still absent and the supply-demand imbalance becoming more pronounced. As August draws to a close and the traditional September-October peak season approaches, end-user stockpiling in advance has not started as expected. Downstream rigid demand remains weak, transactions in the market continue to be sluggish, and overall market confidence is insufficient. Supply-side pressure keeps accumulating, with weak end-user purchasing and significant shipment pressure across the market. Steel mills are focusing on active selling and reducing their own inventories, which has led to increased release of goods into circulation. This week, stainless steel social inventory rose further, extending the inventory buildup trend. Meanwhile, mainstream steel mills offered price compensation to agents for earlier allocations, clearly loosening their price-holding strategy and further weakening spot price support. Combined with the continued breakdown in futures, spot price centers kept pulling back. Cost and profit factors provided bottom support, effectively limiting the room for sharp spot price declines. This week, stainless steel product prices and nickel-based raw material prices fell in tandem, but product prices dropped more sharply due to the drag from futures. The price spread between products and raw materials continued to narrow, further squeezing steel mill smelting margins, with the industry as a whole already on the edge of losses. Cost side rigid support is gradually becoming more evident, effectively offsetting some bearish factors in futures and supply-demand pressure, making the downside in spot prices relatively controllable, with the market showing a subdued but not sharply declining pattern. Overall, this week the stainless steel market presented a game pattern of SS futures retreating after a rapid rise and breaking key levels, peak-season preheating demand falling short, steel mills' price-holding stance loosening, inventory continuing to build up, and costs nearing losses providing a floor. In the short term, weak end-use demand, market inventory buildup, and bearish dominance in futures are the core bearish factors, making it difficult to reverse the weak market trend; however, the risk of cost losses continues to constrain downside room, and the market is likely to consolidate on a subdued note. Going forward, focus on the sustainability of SS futures, the pace of downstream peak-season stockpiling, changes in steel mill shipments and price-holding policies, changes in raw material and finished product price spreads, and the progress of social inventory buildup.
Nickel ore:
Philippine market:
Prices: This week, Philippine nickel ore prices were generally stable, with mainstream CIF China quotes at $46/wmt for Ni 1.3%, $56.5/wmt for Ni 1.4%, and $64.5/wmt for Ni 1.5%, all flat WoW. Chinese downstream smelters had relatively sufficient inventory, with limited restocking demand, and procurement was mainly to meet immediate production needs, with overall spot transactions remaining sluggish. High-grade ore prices were relatively firm, while low-grade ore continued to face some pressure amid ample supply and limited demand recovery.
Weather: This week, weather risks in major Philippine nickel ore producing areas were somewhat divergent. Weather in Palawan and Homonhon Island was generally stable, with limited impact on mining, transportation, and loading. Zambales remained the main weather risk area, with intermittent heavy rainfall and strong winds potentially causing localized impacts on mining, land transportation, and port operations, but overall disruption was limited. Overall, weather this week has not yet caused significant impact on Philippine nickel ore production and exports, and operational risks in Zambales remained higher than in other major producing areas.
Supply-demand and market sentiment: The Philippine nickel ore market overall showed a pattern of relatively loose supply and weak demand. Although it is currently the rainy season, mine production, transportation, and port loading remained generally normal, with relatively ample spot supply. Chinese downstream smelters had relatively sufficient inventory, and procurement remained mainly need-based, with overall transactions subdued.
Philippine mines, supported by freight and production costs, kept offers relatively firm and were reluctant to cut prices significantly; however, amid relatively loose supply and limited demand recovery, downward pressure on low-grade nickel ore gradually increased. In contrast, high-grade nickel ore prices were relatively firm, mainly supported by stable procurement demand from NPI smelters and relatively tight supply of high-grade NPI raw materials.
Looking ahead, the Philippines' nickel ore supply and exports are expected to remain normal over the coming week, with the market still in a relatively loose supply state. Chinese downstream buyers are expected to continue focusing on just-in-time procurement, with limited overall improvement in transactions. With supply relatively loose and demand recovering slowly, low-grade nickel ore prices are expected to remain under pressure, while high-grade ore prices stay relatively firm. Overall market sentiment is expected to remain cautious, and the subsequent price trend will mainly depend on the pace of restocking by Chinese downstream buyers, loading activity at Philippine ports, and spot supply conditions.
Indonesia market:
In terms of prices, this week is the final week of the HMA pricing cycle for the first half of August, with the HMA at $16,733.33/mt. Affected by the recent declines in HMA and HPM, Indonesian nickel ore prices are generally weak, but due to ample market supply and high smelter inventories, actual transaction prices remained basically stable MoM. Limonite ore CIF prices are approximately $28/wmt for Ni 1.2% and $30/wmt for Ni 1.3%; saprolite ore is approximately $52.8/wmt for Ni 1.4% and $59.2/wmt for Ni 1.5%. Mainstream transaction prices for low-grade nickel ore are approximately $31/wmt.
In terms of supply, under the influence of El Niño climate conditions, Indonesia is currently in a relatively dry season overall, with limited rainfall in major nickel mining areas. Mining and shipping operations are basically normal, and weather-related disruptions to supply remain weak. Although Halmahera and Obi Island still experience intermittent rainfall and sea condition fluctuations, these have not yet had a significant impact on overall supply. Overall, the dry weather is conducive to maintaining stable mine production and port loading.
In terms of demand, the market continues to see relatively ample supply. High-grade ore (Ni 1.45% and above) faces relatively strong procurement competition due to limited local supply, and prices are expected to remain firm; Ni 1.3–1.4% ore supply is relatively sufficient, with part of the demand continuing to be supplemented by imported ore from the Philippines.
Regarding HPM, current spot prices for limonite ore remain significantly below the theoretical HPM price, and smelters' purchase willingness is insufficient. The HPM premium for September is expected to narrow further, mainly due to relatively sufficient HPAL raw material inventories, limited restocking demand, and the dry season favoring mine production and shipping, which reduces supply-side disruptions. In addition, some HPAL enterprises have low acceptance of high-grade HPM pricing and prefer to purchase based on actual market transaction levels. If subsequent RKAB approvals and quota releases further improve supply expectations, buyers' bargaining power may continue to strengthen, thereby further compressing the HPM premium.
In terms of policy, the market continues to focus on the pace of subsequent RKAB approvals and actual supply releases. APNI previously proposed 270 million wmt for the 2026 RKAB, with an additional 30 million wmt strategic buffer quota. If quotas continue to be released, improved supply expectations may further limit upside room for spot prices and pressure limonite ore premiums.
Looking ahead, Indonesian nickel ore prices are expected to remain stable-to-weak in the short term. High-grade ore is supported by supply constraints, while low-grade ore and limonite ore are pressured by ample inventory and weak demand. After entering September, narrowing HPM premiums are expected to become a key change in the limonite ore market. If HPAL restocking demand does not recover significantly while RKAB supply is further released, the discount between spot prices and HPM theoretical prices may continue to widen. The market will focus on RKAB approvals, smelter restocking pace, HPM premium changes, and high-grade ore supply.
![[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EU Melt-and-Pour Rule Set to Reshape Stainless Steel Supply Chain Traceability](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/PuSOO20251217171732.jpeg)
