Metals generally rise, with LME nickel up over 1%; lithium carbonate and silicon metal hit new listing lows; European container shipping surges over 6% [SMM Daily Review]

SMM May 29 report:

Metals market:

As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally rose, with only SHFE tin and SHFE nickel falling together. SHFE tin dropped by 1.48%, and SHFE nickel fell by 0.63%. The rest of the metals all rose. The main alumina contract fell by 1.36%.

In addition, the main polysilicon contract rose by 0.92%. Lithium carbonate and silicon metal both hit new historical lows since their listings. The main lithium carbonate contract fell by 2.23%, reaching a low of 58,460 yuan/mt during the session, while the main silicon metal contract fell by 1.84%, hitting a low of 7,200 yuan/mt during the session. The main European container shipping contract surged by 6.34%.

On the ferrous metals series front, most prices rose. Stainless steel fell by 0.39%, while iron ore led the gains with a 1.29% increase. Rebar rose by 0.47%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal fell by 3.98%, and coke dropped by 1.62%.

In the overseas market, as of 15:03, overseas market base metals collectively rose. LME zinc increased by 1%, and LME nickel rose by 1.29%, with the rest of the metals seeing gains within 1%.

In the precious metals segment, as of 15:03, COMEX gold fell by 0.82%, while COMEX silver rose by 0.45%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 0.81%, and SHFE silver closed flat at 8,224 yuan/mt.

As of 15:03 today's market situation

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Macro front

Domestic front:

[Announcement: The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) will hold its regular May press conference from 10:00-11:00 AM on May 30] The CCPIT will organize its regular May press conference at its auditorium from 10:00-11:00 AM on May 30 (Friday). Zhao Ping, the CCPIT spokesperson, will announce the following: the Global Economic and Trade Friction Index for March 2025, commercial certification data for the national trade promotion system in April 2025, the "Business Environment Report on Japan 2024" and the "Business Environment Report on South Korea 2024", outcomes of the 2025 Global Trade and Investment Promotion Summit, and a preview of Expo 2025 Osaka activities.

[MIIT releases 2025 regulatory development work plan] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has released its 2025 regulatory development work plan. Projects to be submitted to the ministerial meeting for review this year include the Interim Measures for the Comprehensive Utilisation Management of Scrap Power Batteries from New Energy Vehicles and the Interim Measures for the Total Volume Control and Management of Rare Earth Mining and Smelting and Separation. Projects to be urgently researched and drafted include the Administrative Measures for the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilisation of Lithium-ion Batteries from E-bikes and the Implementation Rules for the Approval of Leasing Overseas Satellite Resources by Domestic Entities.

►The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on May 29 was 7.1907 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar front:

As of 15:03, the US dollar index rose by 0.12% to 100.01, returning above 100. The minutes from the US Fed's May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting revealed that, in the face of multiple challenges such as persistent inflation, slowing growth, and policy uncertainty, the US Fed opted to maintain interest rates unchanged, emphasizing the priority of inflation control while retaining the option to flexibly adjust policies based on economic data. Participants generally agreed that there was significant uncertainty in the current economic outlook, particularly with inflation and growth risks rising due to changes in trade policies.

The market is focusing on the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data to be released later in the day, as well as Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data and comments from Fed officials, in search of more clues about interest rates. The US Fed maintained interest rates unchanged at its May meeting. Federal funds rate futures traders believe that the US Fed is most likely to resume interest rate cuts in September.

Macro Aspects:

Today, data including the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 24, the revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP for Q1 in the US, the revised quarterly rate of the GDP price index for Q1 in the US, the revised annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index for Q1 in the US, the revised annualized quarterly rate of consumer spending for Q1 in the US, the revised quarterly rate of the implicit GDP deflator for Q1 in the US (seasonally adjusted), and the monthly rate of the seasonally adjusted US Pending Home Sales Index for April, will be released. Additionally, Bank of England Governor Bailey will deliver a speech at the annual dinner of the Irish Association of Investment Managers.

Crude Oil Aspects:

As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets rose simultaneously, with US crude oil up 1.78% and Brent crude oil up 1.63%. This follows a US court's move to block Trump's tariffs from taking effect. The market is also monitoring potential new measures by the US to curb Russian crude oil supplies, as well as OPEC+'s decision to increase production in July.

In terms of supply, investors are concerned that the US may impose new restrictions on Russian crude oil. OPEC+ made no adjustments to its production policies at its Wednesday meeting but agreed to establish a mechanism to set benchmarks for its oil production in 2027. OPEC+ sources said that the eight-country meeting to be held on Saturday may agree to further accelerate production increases in July. Vivek Dhar, an analyst at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), said in a report that given the resilience of Russian oil to sanctions so far, "it is hard to believe that any restrictions imposed by the US on Russia will substantially weaken Russian oil exports."

Chevron Corporation has terminated its oil production and some other activities in Venezuela, thereby increasing supply risks. Later on Thursday, investors will focus on the EIA's weekly inventory report.

A survey of industry analysts released on Wednesday showed that US crude oil inventories increased by approximately 100,000 barrels last week, distillate inventories increased by approximately 500,000 barrels, and gasoline inventories decreased by approximately 500,000 barrels. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Wednesday showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 4.24 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels in the week ending May 23. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

SMM Daily Review

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►Inquiries for high-grade NPI were sluggish before the holiday, with short-term high-grade NPI prices remaining stable. [NPI Daily Review]

►Back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream remain deadlocked, with market prices remaining relatively stable. [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review]