The peak shipping season has arrived early! Port arrivals are expected to see a "minor uptick" in June, with tight capacity on the U.S. routes likely to persist until at least mid-July.

Against the backdrop of the 90-day window period between China and the US, cargo volumes at ports have recently shown signs of recovery. Liner companies have also taken measures to restore capacity on US routes. "The current container shipping market is volatile and unpredictable. However, one thing is certain: the market demand for transportation this year is strong," Anne-Sophie Zerlang Karlsen, President of Maersk's Asia-Pacific Operations Center, told a Cailian Press reporter.

During the "2025 Maritime Silk Road Port Cooperation Forum" held from May 27 to 28, Teng Yahui, Director and Deputy General Manager of Ningbo Port (601018.SH), said in an interview with media including Cailian Press that in response to the recent significant reduction in tariff hikes imposed by the US, the volume of containers exported to the US is expected to rebound significantly, with regular operations on US routes expected to resume by mid-June. Based on this, the company plans to take measures such as increasing cabin supply, improving service levels including terminal production efficiency, and strengthening empty container availability.

According to Teng Yahui, from January to April this year, Ningbo Zhoushan Port handled 13.568 million TEUs of container throughput, up 9.9% YoY. Among them, the volume of laden export containers for foreign trade increased by over 10% YoY, with emerging market regions such as Southeast Asia, South America, and Africa seeing growth rates exceeding 20%. During the period when the US imposed tariff hikes on China, the company strengthened communication and coordination with shipping companies to ensure that the "quantity decreased slightly, but quality remained unchanged" on US routes. In response to the reduction in cargo sources on US routes, the company collaborated with shipping companies to jointly solicit cargo and actively developed new routes and cargo sources.

Cailian Press also learned from Shanghai International Port Group (600018.SH) that from May 19 to 25, Shanghai Port handled 107,000 TEUs of container loading and unloading on US routes, up 75,000 TEUs MoM. As of now, suspended US route flights have been fully restored, with the weekly number of US route flights reaching 42, returning to normal levels.

Liner companies are also increasing their capacity investments to ensure transportation.

"During the previous tariff shock period, many customers still had shipping demands, so Maersk retained its services on China-US routes. The 'Gemini' alliance between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd has a very flexible route network that can quickly adjust capacity, which is also a major solution the company provides to customers. Through the approach of 'replacing large vessels with smaller ones,' route capacity has been reduced by about 20%," Karlsen said. Currently, the company is fully committed to taking measures to return this capacity to the US route market.

Karlsen further stated that Maersk has also been maintaining close cooperation with ports, including Ningbo Port, to facilitate timely adjustments to operational operations (such as adjusting vessel sizes) and improve operational efficiency. Subsequent capacity increases on Maersk's China-US routes will primarily focus on matching cargo owners' demands. Freight rates on relevant routes will be adjusted according to the market supply-demand relationship.

As for COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (601919.SH), COSCO SHIPPING Lines has also strengthened market capacity supply by optimizing the layout of main routes, increasing the frequency of services in core markets, and opening up channels to emerging markets. For example, in the US West Coast market, the AAC route has been optimized, with additional calls at Yangpu Port.

Due to the current robust market demand and limited supply, spot freight rates are still on the rise. Data provided by Jiyu Technology to a Caixin reporter shows that freight rates for voyages departing in June on the Shanghai-Los Angeles and Shanghai-Long Beach routes have all exceeded $4,500/FEU. The quote for the voyage departing on June 3, which Maersk inquired about today, is $5,205/FEU. Although this is a decrease from the opening price of $6,005/FEU, it is a significant increase compared to the quote of $3,705/FEU for the voyage departing at month-end inquired about on May 16.

Regarding the trend in the US trade market, the head of a freight forwarding company in Ningbo revealed to a Caixin reporter: "Our current business volume on the US trade routes has recovered to about 120% of the level before the tariff impact. There are significant uncertainties this year, and shippers tend to ship goods as early as possible. It is expected that the peak season for shipping Christmas goods will also arrive earlier this year."

Ke Ansu believes that from now until at least mid-July, the market will see very tight capacity on (US trade) routes. Although it is still unclear how much capacity will be available in the market, strong demand is certain.

"Overall, it is expected that there will be a 'small peak' in port cargo volume in June. At that time, the market will have two factors supporting the shipping volume, namely robust shipping demand and an increase in capacity deployment by liner companies," Dai Zhanglu, Director of the Container Center at the Business Department of Ningbo Zhoushan Port Co., Ltd., told a Caixin reporter.