The center of actual polysilicon transactions moved downward, while wafer transactions were few and prices were basically stable [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM News on May 28:

Silicon Coal

Prices: This week, silicon coal prices in multiple regions have been lowered again, primarily due to the decline in coking coal prices. Recently, coking coal prices have decreased by 60 yuan/mt, leading to adjustments in silicon coal prices across various regions to varying degrees. Currently, the average price of silicon mixed coal in Gansu has dropped to 870 yuan/mt, a decrease of 100 yuan/mt. The average price of granular coal has fallen to 1,000 yuan/mt, a decrease of 130 yuan/mt. In Ningxia, the average price of silicon mixed coal has decreased to 900 yuan/mt, a decrease of 60 yuan/mt, while the price of granular coal stands at 1,140 yuan/mt, also down by 60 yuan/mt. The average price of granular coal (with 5-6% ash content) has reached 1,310 yuan/mt, a decrease of 60 yuan/mt.

Supply: The supply side remains relatively abundant, with the overall market under pressure and in the doldrums. Producers are facing increased sales pressure, and despite the available supply, market trading activity remains low.

Demand: Demand continues to show weakness. Affected by the recent sluggish silicon metal market, overall demand has continued to weaken. Purchases are mainly driven by immediate needs for restocking, with a strong sentiment to drive down prices.

Silicon Metal

Prices: Both spot and futures prices of silicon metal continue to fall. Yesterday, SMM reported that the price of oxygen-blown #553 silicon metal in east China ranged from 8,400 to 8,600 yuan/mt. The futures Si2507 contract fell below 7,500 yuan/mt, closing at 7,440 yuan/mt yesterday, a decrease of 280 yuan/mt or 3.63% from the previous trading day. With increased silicon metal supply, market sentiment remains pessimistic, and silicon prices continue to trend weaker.

Production:

On the supply side, some major producers in the north have gradually resumed production, releasing capacity. Coupled with the marginal incremental contributions from silicon plants in the southwest, the supply of silicon metal has increased.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of May 22, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 582,000 mt, a decrease of 17,000 mt WoW. Among this, the inventory in general social warehouses was 130,000 mt, a decrease of 2,000 mt WoW, while the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 452,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot cargo), an increase of 15,000 mt WoW. (Excluding regions such as Inner Mongolia and Gansu)

Silicone

Prices

DMC: The current quotation ranges from 11,400 to 11,600 yuan/mt. This week, the low transaction price of domestic DMC has slightly increased. Recently, the procurement demand from downstream enterprises has slightly improved compared to the previous period, and some domestic monomer enterprises are expected to commence maintenance soon, leading to a slight increase in their quotations. However, the overall market transaction center remains temporarily stable.

D4: The current quotation ranges from 11,600 to 12,300 yuan/mt. This week, the transaction price of D4 has remained stable, with a slight increase in demand support.

107 Silicone Rubber: The current quotation ranges from 11,800 to 12,500 yuan/mt. This week, the high price of 107 silicone rubber has dropped slightly. The demand for room temperature silicone rubber remains relatively average recently, and with the weather warming up, it is expected that subsequent demand will continue to decline.

Raw rubber: Current quotes range from 12,600 yuan/mt to 13,100 yuan/mt. This week, procurement volumes by high-temperature rubber enterprises have slightly decreased, as the initial phase of concentrated stockpiling has largely concluded, with subsequent purchases primarily driven by immediate needs.

Silicone oil: Current quotes range from 13,800 yuan/mt to 14,300 yuan/mt. This week, silicone oil prices have fallen. Transaction and procurement activities by downstream enterprises have been average, with some silicone oil enterprises offering minor discounts to destock.

Production:

Recently, the operating rates of monomer enterprises have increased slightly, but it is anticipated that subsequent operations will decline due to plant maintenance in the north-west and north China regions.

Inventory:

This week, the inventory levels of monomer enterprises have remained largely stable.

Polysilicon

Price

Yesterday, the mainstream transaction prices for N-type recharging polysilicon were 35-38 yuan/kg, with the N-type polysilicon price index at 35.11 yuan/kg. Market transactions have gradually picked up in the early stage, and polysilicon prices have declined.

Production

In May, the actual production of polysilicon remained relatively unchanged compared to the previous period. In June, preliminary statistics indicate that two bases have increased production, while three bases have undergone production cuts/maintenance. Overall, polysilicon production is expected to increase slightly.

Inventory

There is still significant pressure on polysilicon inventory, with large disparities among enterprises. Overall inventory levels have not seen substantial improvement.

Wafer

Price

The market prices for N-type 18X wafers are 0.93-0.95 yuan/piece, and for N-type 210RN wafers, they are 1.05-1.1 yuan/piece. Wafer prices have remained largely stable with minor fluctuations, and market transactions have been relatively limited.

Production

In May, there were slight changes in the actual production schedule, with overall variations being limited. In June, preliminary observations indicate that multiple enterprises have cut production, but the overall magnitude is limited, mostly at the level of tens of millions of pieces. Production is expected to decline slightly.

Inventory

Recently, market transactions have remained relatively limited, with a cautious procurement sentiment. Inventory levels have remained largely stable with minor fluctuations.

High-purity quartz sand

Price

Currently, the domestic prices for inner-layer sand are 60,000-70,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand are 33,000-43,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand are 17,000-24,000 yuan/mt. This week, domestic quartz sand prices have fallen slightly. The purchasing sentiment of crucible enterprises remains low, and demand from the wafer end remains weak, leading to a decline in quartz sand prices. Recently, the negotiated prices for new spot orders of some imported sand have largely been finalized, showing an overall downward trend. The transaction prices for spot orders of imported sand traders are expected to continue to decline.

Production

This week, the operating rates of quartz sand production have remained stable, with overall production in May maintaining a slight upward trend.

Inventory

This week, the inventory levels of sand enterprises have increased slightly, with crucible enterprises showing low enthusiasm for purchases.

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