Most metals fell across the board, with silicon metal dropping over 3% to hit a new low, alumina declining for three consecutive days, and ferrous metals in the doldrums [SMM Daily Review]

SMM News on May 27:

Metal Market:

As of the daytime close, among domestic market base metals, only SHFE zinc and SHFE tin rose together, with SHFE zinc up 0.61% and SHFE tin up 0.09%. The rest of the metals declined, with SHFE aluminum down 0.57% and SHFE nickel down 0.55%. The fluctuations in the decline of the remaining metals were relatively small. The main alumina contract fell 2.71%, recording a four-day losing streak.

In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose 0.86%, the main polysilicon contract fell 1.16%, and the main silicon metal contract fell 3.63%, hitting a record low of 7,440 yuan/mt during the session. The European Containerized Freight Index fell 3.67%.

The ferrous metals series collectively declined, with most drops around 1%. Iron ore fell 1.76%, rebar fell 1.23%, and HRC fell 1.33%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal fell 0.12% and coke fell 0.94%.

In the overseas market, as of 15:05, base metals in the overseas market collectively declined, with LME nickel leading the decline at 0.51%. LME aluminum fell 0.49%, and LME lead fell 0.43%. The declines in the remaining metals fluctuated slightly.

In the precious metals segment, as of 15:05, COMEX gold fell 1.76%, and COMEX silver fell 1.11%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 1.27%, and SHFE silver fell 0.64%.

Market conditions as of 15:05 today

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Macro Front

Domestic Aspect:

[National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Industrial profits of enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 1.4% from January to April, with new momentum industries showing rapid profit growth ] According to NBS data, from January to April, industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide achieved a total profit of 2,117.02 billion yuan, up 1.4% YoY. Among industrial enterprises above designated size during this period, state-controlled enterprises achieved a total profit of 702.28 billion yuan, down 4.4% YoY; joint-stock enterprises achieved a total profit of 1,559.64 billion yuan, up 1.1% YoY; foreign-invested enterprises and enterprises invested by Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan achieved a total profit of 542.92 billion yuan, up 2.5% YoY; and private enterprises achieved a total profit of 570.68 billion yuan, up 4.3% YoY. Yu Weining, a statistician from the NBS Department of Industry, interpreted the industrial profit data for January to April 2025: Industrial profits of enterprises above designated size accelerated their recovery from January to April, with new momentum industries showing rapid profit growth. 》Click to view details

► The central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market on May 27 was 7.1876 yuan per US dollar.

US Dollar Aspect:

As of 15:05, the US dollar index rose 0.19% to 99.17. Neel Kashkari, the 2026 FOMC voter and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, stated that as the US government continues to engage in tariff negotiations with multiple governments, significant shifts in US trade and immigration policies have introduced uncertainties for Federal Reserve officials in taking interest rate actions before September. According to CCTV News, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech at a forum in Berlin. Lagarde expressed that the current international monetary system, based on the US dollar, is becoming uncertain, and Europe needs to implement reforms in multiple areas to mitigate the impact of changes in the international order. According to CCTV News, on the 26th local time, German Chancellor Merz stated that Germany and other EU countries do not wish to escalate tariff disputes, as tariff hikes would harm German interests. If negotiations between the US and Europe fail to reach a consensus, Germany will have no choice but to retaliate against the US tariff policies. This week, focus on the statements and meeting minutes of Federal Reserve officials, paying attention to the policy signals they release. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Macro Aspects:

Today, initial values for the monthly change in US durable goods orders for April, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for May, the Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index for May, the Eurozone Industrial Sentiment Index for May, the final value of the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index for May, the German June Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, the UK May CBI Retail Sales Balance, and the Australia ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for the week ending May 25 will be released.

Crude Oil Aspects:

As of 15:05, oil prices in both markets showed mixed performance, with US oil down 0.02% and Brent oil up 0.08%. This is due to rising expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, will decide to increase production at a meeting later this week.

Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), said in a report, "Crude oil prices are falling as the market considers the prospect of increased OPEC supply." OPEC+ may finalise July's production at the meeting, with production potentially increasing by 411,000 barrels per day.

According to RIA Novosti, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated on Monday that the OPEC+ alliance of oil-producing countries had not yet discussed increasing production by an additional 411,000 barrels per day ahead of the meeting. The organization may finalise production quotas at the ministerial online meeting on May 28. OPEC+ member countries have already agreed to accelerate production increases for the second consecutive month in June. However, US President Trump's decision to extend trade negotiations with the EU until July 9 has alleviated concerns that tariffs might suppress fuel demand, thereby curbing the decline in oil prices.

The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) stated that Iran has set the official selling price for June light crude oil for Asian buyers at a premium of $1.80 per barrel over the average of Oman/Dubai prices. The company set the price for May at a premium of $1.65 per barrel. According to Iranian state media, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated on Monday that Iran could survive even without negotiations with the US and despite facing more sanctions. If nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran fail, it could mean that Iran will continue to face sanctions, which will limit Iran's supply and support oil prices. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

SMM Daily Review

►Aluminum prices fall, aluminum scrap prices follow suit [Daily Review of Aluminum Scrap]

►Aluminum price decline widens, secondary aluminum prices face synchronous pressure [Daily Review of ADC12 Prices]

►Silver prices consolidate, market sentiment remains cautious [SMM Daily Review]