Traditional consumption sectors are under pressure, with bulls and bears continuing to battle around the 264,000 yuan/mt threshold [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Midday Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on May 26, 2025

This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) continued its sideways movement, opening flat at 264,600 yuan/mt compared with the previous closing price. The intraday fluctuation range narrowed, with the highest price reaching 265,800 yuan/mt and the lowest dipping to 263,600 yuan/mt. It closed at 263,860 yuan/mt by midday, edging down 0.31%. Market trading remained sluggish, as bulls and bears continued to wrestle around the 264,000 yuan/mt threshold.

Traditional Sectors Under Pressure: Solder demand from electronics and home appliances was constrained by high tin prices and Sino-US trade frictions, prompting downstream enterprises to maintain just-in-time procurement. Spot transactions sustained a pattern of "high premiums but low turnover." New Energy Sector Support: PV welding strip and NEV demand maintained rapid growth, but the short-term increment could hardly offset weak traditional consumption.

Trade Frictions Escalate: The Trump administration threatened to impose 50% tariffs on the EU, with expectations of rising global trade costs suppressing risk appetite. The climbing VIX index exacerbated market volatility. Although China's tin product exports to the US accounted for only 4%, end-use demand transmission risks persisted.

Short-Term (1-2 Weeks): The most-traded SHFE tin contract may continue to fluctuate rangebound between 260,000-275,000 yuan/mt. Downside support comes from low operating rates at Yunnan smelters and low LME inventory, while upside pressure stems from anticipated production resumptions in the DRC and Myanmar, as well as macro risk-off sentiment. Should the Bisie mine's transportation progress exceed expectations or trade frictions intensify, prices could test the 257,000 yuan/mt support level.