Prebaked anode costs fell by 2.43% during the week, with the main reason being the fluctuating decline in petroleum coke prices [SMM Prebaked Anode Weekly Review]

SMM, May 22:

Raw Material Side: In the petroleum coke market, the performance of refinery shipments has weakened, and downstream enterprises are cautious in their purchasing sentiment, leading to a fluctuating downward trend in petroleum coke prices. Specifically, this week, the prices of petroleum coke under CNOOC have mainly declined, with drops ranging from 300-350 yuan/mt. In the northeast region under PetroChina, refinery shipments have been relatively average during the week, with sufficient supply, and petroleum coke prices have been uniformly lowered by 200 yuan/mt again, now ranging from 3,350-3,650 yuan/mt. Sinopec's petroleum coke prices have fluctuated within the week, with adjustments within a hundred yuan. For local refineries, shipment performance has been average during the week, and petroleum coke prices have declined slightly due to the impact of falling low-sulphur petroleum coke prices. This week, the prices of mid and high-sulphur petroleum coke have slightly weakened. According to SMM data, the average price of petroleum coke at local refineries is approximately 2,412 yuan/mt, down 0.9% WoW. In the coal tar pitch market, prices have turned upward this week. As of Thursday, the average price of coal tar pitch is 3,898 yuan/mt, up 3.40% WoW. Overall, the cost support for prebaked anodes has loosened.

From the supply perspective, prebaked anode enterprises continue to adopt the strategy of "produce based on sales." This week, the industry's operating rate has remained stable, with no significant fluctuations in production schedules. Market supply has maintained a dynamic balance, without notable increases or decreases. On the demand side, with the southward shift of aluminum capacity in Shandong and regional adjustments in aluminum capacity, the overall capacity has been operating smoothly.

Brief Commentary: This week, the raw material market for prebaked anodes has shown divergence, with petroleum coke prices continuing to weaken and coal tar pitch prices slightly rebounding. According to SMM data, as of May 22, the cost of prebaked anodes in China is approximately 4,900 yuan/mt, down 2.43% WoW, with the support from the raw material side loosening. As month-end approaches, downstream enterprises of petroleum coke are generally adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and market transaction activity has declined. Although some refineries have entered maintenance periods, providing a certain level of bottom support for petroleum coke prices, under the current supply-demand pattern, petroleum coke prices lack substantial upward momentum and are expected to continue fluctuating downward in the short term. This week, fluctuations in both supply and demand for prebaked anodes have been minimal, while the petroleum coke market on the cost side has remained sluggish, providing increasingly weaker support for prebaked anode prices. In the future, it is necessary to continuously monitor the supply-demand changes and price trends in the prebaked anode and its raw material markets.

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