US dollar falls, metals generally decline; LME zinc, LME tin drop nearly 1%, alumina rises nearly 2%, and COMEX silver rises over 1% [Overnight Market]

》[Live] Analysis of Macroeconomics, Power, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and PV Markets; Outlook for Copper and Aluminum Prices; Insights into Cable Technology Trends

SMM, May 22:

Metal Market:

Overnight, most domestic base metals closed in the red, with SHFE tin down 0.36%, SHFE copper down 0.41%, SHFE nickel up 0.32%, SHFE lead down 0.33%, SHFE aluminum down 0.17%, and SHFE zinc down 0.75%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures rose 1.85%.

Overnight, the ferrous metals series showed mixed performance, with iron ore up 0.48%, stainless steel slightly down, rebar up 0.16%, and HRC up 0.44%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal remained flat at 841.5 yuan/mt, while coke fell 0.18%.

Overnight, overseas base metals generally closed lower, with LME copper down 0.34%, LME aluminum up 0.16%, LME lead down 0.1%, LME zinc down 0.96%, LME tin down 0.93%, and LME nickel up 0.72%.

Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold rose 0.97%, hitting a new high in over a week at $3,327.2/oz; COMEX silver rose 1.21%. Overnight, SHFE gold rose 0.92%, and SHFE silver rose 0.86%.

As of 8:13 a.m. on May 22, overnight closing prices

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Macro Front

Domestic:

[China Development Bank has issued over 50 billion yuan in special loans for technological upgrades and equipment renewal]According to the China Development Bank, as of the end of April this year, it has issued over 50 billion yuan in special loans for technological upgrades and equipment renewal. Going forward, the bank will strengthen innovation in product models and service mechanisms, and continue to increase financing support for technological upgrades and equipment renewal.

[National passenger vehicle market retail sales increased 12% YoY and 18% MoM from May 1-18]Data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed that from May 1-18, nationwide passenger vehicle retail sales reached 932,000 units, up 12% YoY and 18% MoM. Cumulative retail sales for the year so far reached 7.804 million units, up 8% YoY. During the same period, nationwide new energy passenger vehicle retail sales reached 484,000 units, up 32% YoY and 15% MoM, with a retail penetration rate of 52% in the national new energy market. Cumulative retail sales for the year so far reached 3.808 million units, up 35% YoY. (Financial News Agency)

[DCE Announces Trading Hours During the 2025 Dragon Boat Festival]The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) announced trading hours during the 2025 Dragon Boat Festival. The market will be closed from May 31 (Saturday) to June 2 (Monday) and will resume normal trading on June 3 (Tuesday). There will be no night session trading on the evening of Friday, May 30. On Tuesday, June 3, the call auction period for all contracts will be from 08:55 to 09:00 AM. Night session trading will resume on the evening of Tuesday, June 3.

[Ningxia Ruiyin Lead Resource Recycling Co., Ltd.: Bullish on China's Stock Market, Foreign Capital Inflows Expected to Be a Key Logic in the Coming Quarters]Wang Zonghao, Head of China Equity Strategy Research at UBS Investment Bank, stated on Wednesday that he is bullish on China's stock market, and that foreign capital inflows will be a significant trading logic in the coming quarters, with Hong Kong stocks slightly outperforming A-shares. At a media briefing, Wang Zonghao mentioned that the recent performance of Hong Kong IPOs reflects overseas investors' recognition and interest in China's core assets, indicating that more long-term funds will need to flow back into China's stock market. (Caijing)

US Dollar:

The US dollar index extended its decline from the previous two trading days overnight, falling by 0.4% to close at 99.61. The US dollar fell against multiple currencies on Wednesday, weighed down by concerns over the US tax cut and spending bill, as well as weak demand for the 20-year US Treasury bond auction, reinforcing the view that the market is shunning US assets. Major US stock indices on Wall Street declined, while US government bond yields rose. The market closely monitored key debates on US President Trump's tax cut bill, exacerbating concerns about the growing US debt. Disagreements persist within the US Republican Party over the details of the tax bill. US President Trump met with House Republicans on Tuesday but failed to convince hardliners within the party to support his comprehensive tax plan. US House Speaker Johnson stated that Republican hardliners still believe the bill does not cut spending enough. Surveys of economists indicate that despite a temporary easing of trade conflicts, the US economic outlook remains weak, with the debate over the country's fiscal health still unresolved.

Other Currencies:

UK inflation data was hot, but the British pound failed to receive a boost, with market bearish risks intensifying. Reuters reported that the UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed strong performance, particularly in the closely watched services inflation indicator. Services CPI rose from 4.7% to 5.4%, exceeding the Bank of England's expectations by 0.4 percentage points. This data triggered a repricing in the market, with the current market expectation for an interest rate cut in August at 50%. Previously, the market had a high expectation for downside risks to the British pound, and market reactions showed that the pound's brief rally following the data release quickly reversed. April CPI data often exceeds expectations due to one-off adjustments (such as annual increases in utility and service prices), so the market's reaction was relatively muted. Additionally, market expectations for interest rate cuts have nearly reached their upper limit, constraining the upside potential for the British pound. Currently, the market expects a 35 basis point interest rate cut before the end of the year, down from 40 basis points before the release of CPI data. Overall, the trend of the British pound following the inflation data release has further strengthened the case for a bearish outlook on the currency. (Huitong Finance)

Macro Aspects:

Today, the following data will be released: flash estimates of the SPGI Manufacturing PMI for France, Germany, and the Eurozone in May; the IFO Business Climate Index for Germany in May; flash estimates of the SPGI Services PMI and SPGI Manufacturing PMI for the UK in May; the CBI Industrial Trends Survey for the UK in May; the CFIB Business Barometer for Canada in May; initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 17; continuing jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 10; flash estimates of the SPGI Manufacturing PMI for the US in May; and the annualized total of existing home sales in the US in April. Additionally, notable events include: Thomas Barkin, the 2027 FOMC voter and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, attending an event titled "Fed Listens"; the State Council Information Office holding a press conference with Qiu Yong, Vice Minister of Science and Technology, Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and relevant officials from the National Financial Regulatory Administration and the China Securities Regulatory Commission to introduce policies related to science and technology finance and answer questions from reporters; and the European Central Bank releasing the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting.

Crude Oil Aspects:

Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose slightly, with WTI down 1.11% and Brent down 0.4%. Oil prices came under pressure due to bearish US government data. The market is closely monitoring the supply situation in Iran, as well as an unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories.

Industry sources said on Tuesday that Kazakhstan's oil production had increased by 2% in May, defying pressure from OPEC to cut production. Data released by the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) on Wednesday showed that Saudi Arabia's crude oil production rose to 8.96 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, up 0.11% MoM. According to the database, crude oil exports fell 12.11% MoM to 5.75 million bpd.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate fuel inventories all unexpectedly increased in the week ending May 16. US crude oil inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels in the week ending May 16. Gasoline inventories increased by 816,000 barrels to 225.5 million barrels, while distillate fuel inventories rose by 580,000 barrels to 104.1 million barrels. (Webstock Inc.)