Multi-billion-dollar orders sealed within 5 months! Giants like CATL, BYD, and CORNEX secure orders for LFP

Driven by multiple factors such as adjustments in the technological roadmap of the global new energy industry, cost pressures, changes in market demand, and the strengthening of China's dominance in the supply chain, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) has seen a surge in orders this year, with the estimated order value reaching hundreds of billions of yuan.

Global orders for LFP are rebounding, with major players frequently securing long-term contracts for LFP.

In the cathode material sector,on May 19, Wanrun New Energy announced that it had secured a five-year major order for LFP from CATL, with an estimated total supply volume of approximately 1.3231 million mt from May 2025 to 2030.

Industry insiders pointed out that this order is the largest single procurement agreement in the LFP sector to date, signaling the long-term optimism of leading battery producers towards LFP technology. Wanrun New Energy did not disclose the order value this time. Currently, the average price of LFP for ESS is approximately 32,000 yuan/mt, and the average price of LFP for NEV is approximately 34,000 yuan/mt. Based on these figures, the total value of this order is estimated to exceed 42.3 billion yuan.

On May 9, Lopal and CORNEX New Energy signed a sales contract worth 5 billion yuan. From 2025 to 2029, they are expected to sell 150,000 mt of LFP cathode materials, with the total contract value estimated to exceed 5 billion yuan.

On April 14, Shandong Fengyuan Chemical announced that it had signed a "Cooperation Framework Agreement for LFP" with Huizhou BYD Battery Co., Ltd., establishing a stable, mutually trusting, and win-win partnership for the procurement and joint development of LFP cathode material products from 2025 to 2028.

In January, Lopal secured a major order from Blue Oval (Ford's battery plant) to supply LFP cathode materials from 2026 to 2030. In the same month, Lopal also signed an annual procurement agreement for cathode materials with CATL, including but not limited to LFP cathode materials, with a procurement cap set at 7 billion yuan.

In December 2024, Lopal and LGES signed a supplementary agreement, stipulating that the total quantity of LFP products supplied to the latter from 2024 to 2028 would be increased from 160,000 mt to 260,000 mt.

In the battery sector,in February 2025, CATL signed a five-year supply agreement with Ford Motor Company, securing a stable supply of LFP batteries from 2026 to 2030. Recently, CATL also announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding with Honda China to deepen cooperation, with both parties planning to comprehensively upgrade their cooperation in areas such as LFP batteries.

In addition to Ford and Honda, several other major international automakers, including Volkswagen, Stellantis, BMW, Daimler, and Hyundai, have clearly stated their intention to introduce LFP batteries.

Among them, the Volkswagen Group just announced in May that starting from 2026, all its electric vehicle models will gradually migrate to an upgraded platform called MEB Plus and will fully adopt lower-cost LFP batteries.

Market Penetration: According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of LFP batteries in China reached 409.0 GWh, accounting for 74.6% of the total installed capacity. From January to April 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of LFP batteries in China was 150.0 GWh, accounting for 81.4% of the total installed capacity, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 88.0%.

In the ESS sector, the share of LFP batteries has exceeded 90%, becoming the mainstream choice for ESS batteries. EVTank data shows that in 2024, LFP batteries accounted for as high as 92.5% of global ESS batteries.

Prices Expected to Remain Stable, with Technological Iterations Leading High-end Competition

Additionally, according to the "White Paper on the Development of China's Iron Phosphate and LFP Material Industry (2025)" jointly released by research institutions EVTank, EV Economics Research Institute, and China Battery Industry Research Institute, in 2024, the shipments of LFP materials in China reached 2.427 million mt, up 48.2% YoY.

However, due to a significant price decline, in 2024, the overall market size of LFP materials in China was 97.08 billion yuan, down 30.3% YoY.

With the rebound in demand, since 2025, compared to 2024, the prices of LFP materials have slightly rebounded. Some LFP material producers and institutions expect processing fees to increase, but there are no significant overall changes in the supply-demand structure, and downstream sentiment remains cautious.

"I believe that the overall prices of LFP materials will remain stable this year, without the significant fluctuations seen in the past two years. The long-term trend is still one of stability with a gradual decline," Wu Hui, General Manager of the Research Department at EV Economics Research Institute, told D1ev.com. "The price trend of LFP materials mainly depends on two aspects: first, the price of the raw material, lithium carbonate. The possibility of a significant price increase in lithium carbonate is relatively small, making it difficult to support an upward trend in LFP prices. Second, the market supply-demand relationship. Currently, the overall capacity of LFP materials is still in surplus, lacking the driving force for price increases."

Data from multiple quotation platforms collectively show that the current average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has further fallen to around 63,000 yuan/mt. With lithium carbonate prices bottoming out, it is difficult for LFP prices to rise.

Wu Hui also emphasized that LFP companies are currently generally under pressure in terms of performance, and there is also limited room for prices to fall further.

EVTank data shows that among the top 5 companies in terms of LFP material shipments in China in 2024, publicly listed firms include Hunan Yuneng, Dynanonic, Runhe Materials, and Lopal.

According to the financial reports previously released by these companies, in 2024, the revenues of Hunan Yuneng, Dynanonic, Runhe Materials, and Lopal all declined. Hunan Yuneng was the only profitable company among the four, but its net profit fell sharply by 62.4% YoY. The other three companies incurred losses, but their year-on-year losses narrowed.

In Q1 2025, the revenues of the aforementioned four companies all increased. However, Hunan Yuneng's net profit decreased by 40.56% YoY, while Dynanonic and Lopal reduced their losses YoY. Meanwhile, Vanrun New Energy's losses expanded further.

Additionally, the market concentration of cathode materials declined in 2024, particularly in the LFP sector. The CR10 for the entire industry was 79.5%, a decrease of 10.1 percentage points from 2023. This was mainly due to an increase in new entrants and the capacity release of second- and third-tier enterprises driven by the demand in the ESS market. Amidst fierce market competition, this trend is expected to continue in 2025.

Against this backdrop, with the successive launch of a new generation of high-performance, fast-charging LFP batteries, represented by CATL's Shenxing Plus and BYD's Flash Charging Battery, leading LFP material companies have optimized their product mix and accelerated the application of new LFP products with high compaction density, fast-charging capabilities, and ultra-long cycle life to enhance competitiveness.

Among them, Hunan Yuneng's CN-5 series (featuring long cycle life and excellent low-temperature performance), YN-9 series (high power output and fast charge-discharge), and YN-13 series (ultra-high compaction density and high capacity) accounted for approximately 37% of the company's product sales in Q1 2025.

Vanrun New Energy's mid-to-high compaction density LFP products are progressing smoothly in validation, and the company will accelerate the scaling-up process.

Dynanonic's fourth-generation high-compaction-density LFP products have achieved mass shipments, and the validation of ultra-high-compaction-density new products is progressing smoothly.

Lopal's fourth-generation, single-sintered, high-compaction-density LFP cathode materials are currently undergoing validation testing by both the company and its top customers, with volume production expected to gradually commence in H2.

Conclusion:Currently, LFP orders are showing significant growth, primarily driven by the expansion of demand in the NEV and ESS markets. Meanwhile, the LFP industry has entered a phase of structural differentiation. The efficiency of technological iteration and cost control capabilities of enterprises have become the core breakthrough points for overcoming the overcapacity dilemma.

From the perspective of industrial evolution, LFP cathode materials are accelerating their evolution towards high compaction density, long cycle life, high safety, and low cost. In this situation, enterprises must expedite their R&D efforts, fully break through the technological bottlenecks of high-end products, and form multi-dimensional competitiveness in R&D, product matrix, and cost control to achieve value leapfrogging during the industry reshuffle cycle.