BYD's share price hits new high, with market value exceeding RMB 1.2 trillion; overseas markets may become the main performance fulcrum

The share price of "BYD King" hit a new high again. In the morning trading session today, both BYD's A-shares and H-shares strengthened. The A-shares once again broke through 400 yuan per share, hitting a record high of 404 yuan during the session; the H-shares surged over 4% at one point and broke through 460 Hong Kong dollars per share for the first time, also setting a new record, with the intraday high exceeding 464 Hong Kong dollars. As of the close on May 21, BYD's A-shares had risen approximately 40% year-to-date, with a market capitalization reaching 1.22 trillion yuan.

Driven by BYD, the A-share automobile sector performed actively. JMC and JAC rose over 6%, while Seres, CNHTC, SAIC Motor, and Foton Motor followed suit with gains.

On the same day, Citi once again raised BYD's target price, stating that the export landscape of China's passenger vehicles in the first four months of this year further favored BYD. Analysts including Jeff Chung noted in the report that BYD's market share in pure electric vehicle exports surged from 23% in FY2024 to 38% in the first four months of FY2025. The growth in China's plug-in hybrid vehicle exports has been astonishing, yet a market consensus has not yet formed. Regarding potential price reductions in 2026, BYD has the strongest ability to cope. BYD is on track to achieve its export target of 800,000 to 1 million units in FY2025.

Based on the above assessment, Citi raised BYD's H-share and A-share target prices to 727 Hong Kong dollars and 669 yuan, respectively. Previously, Citi had already raised the target price for the stock in February.

The day before Citi raised BYD's share price, Guangzhou Shipyard International announced that BYD's seventh car carrier ship—BYD 7000-unit LNG dual-fuel pure car and truck carrier (PCTC) Ship No. 2—had been launched and undocked. It is understood that this ship is the second vessel built by Guangzhou Shipyard International for BYD, namely the sister ship of the previously launched "Hefei" ship.

To meet the overseas market sales target of at least 800,000 units this year, BYD has currently assembled a large "ocean fleet." According to industry insiders familiar with BYD, the fleet will consist of eight PCTCs, all planned to be put into operation within the year. This includes the first "Pioneer No. 1" delivered in January last year, the "Changzhou" ship in November of the same year, as well as the "Hefei," "Shenzhen," "Changsha," and "Xi'an" ships launched in January, March, and April this year, respectively.

Industry sources revealed that BYD's Denza Z9GT is expected to be launched in Hong Kong, Macau, and Southeast Asian markets (including Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, etc.) in Q3 this year, and will land in Europe in Q4, with plans to open more than ten stores in Europe before the end of the year.

In addition to vehicle exports, overseas bases have also become an important fulcrum supporting BYD's target of 800,000 overseas sales. On May 16, Li Yunfei, General Manager of Branding and Public Relations at BYD Group, announced on social media the opening of BYD's European headquarters in Budapest, Hungary. Péter Szijjártó, Hungary's Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, revealed on the same day that the total investment in the project was 100 billion Hungarian forints (approximately €248 million), with the Hungarian government planning to provide 20 billion Hungarian forints in support. Szijjártó stated that the project would create 2,000 jobs. According to information released by BYD, the European headquarters will undertake three core functions: sales and after-sales service, vehicle certification and testing, and localized car model design and feature development.

Prior to this, in 2023, BYD had already established its first new energy passenger vehicle factory in Europe in Szeged, Hungary, and had built production sites in several countries, including Thailand, Brazil, Indonesia, and Uzbekistan. Among them, the Thailand factory has an annual production capacity of 150,000 units, serving the ASEAN region; the Brazil factory has an annual capacity of 300,000 units, comprehensively covering the Latin American market; and the base under construction in Indonesia has an annual production capacity of 150,000 units, expected to be completed by the end of 2025, targeting the Australian market.

The production and sales report shows that from January to April this year, BYD's overseas market sales reached 285,170 units, up 105% YoY; its share of the new energy passenger vehicle market increased from 14.83% last year to 20.99% this year. It is worth noting that, excluding overseas sales of 79,086 units in April, BYD's domestic sales for the month saw a slight MoM decline for the first time this year.