Is the "Trump Factor" at Play? Analysts: North American Gasoline Prices May Fluctuate Unexpectedly This Summer

As late May approaches and the peak summer driving season in North America draws near, gasoline prices in the US and Canada typically begin to stabilize. However, this year, with increased uncertainty brought about by US President Trump, analysts warn that gasoline prices may experience unexpected volatility.

Roger McKnight, chief oil analyst at En-Pro International, stated that the "Trump factor" could disrupt long-term expectations for gasoline price trends this year.

"There's another factor in the equation now, called the 'Trump factor', which throws any logical mathematical explanation out the window. Because he will make the market entirely dependent on what he says, what we think he might say, or what he might never say," he said.

McKnight noted that typically, in January and February each year, refineries shut down for maintenance, which usually drives up gasoline prices until they peak around mid-April, followed by a gradual stabilization in May.

However, President Trump's remarks on issues such as tariffs and geopolitics could unexpectedly push the market into significant volatility—either upwards or downwards.

Analysts added that current gasoline prices in North America are not high, resulting in refinery operating rates in the region being only around 90%, which is relatively low compared to the same period in previous years.

"The driving season is approaching, but refining margins are so low that refiners are saying, 'To hell with it, we'll have to stop... if we can't make big money from what we're doing,'"

"This could push gasoline prices higher throughout the summer, but I don't think anything drastic will happen unless there's geopolitical chaos that we can never get out of."

Recently, international crude oil prices have been weak. In recent weeks, US WTI crude oil prices have hovered around $60 per barrel, about $10 lower than six months ago.

A few days ago, the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook report released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted that retail prices for regular gasoline in the US will decline this year and next.

The EIA predicts that the average retail price for regular gasoline in the US will be $3.09 per gallon in 2025 and $3.07 per gallon in 2026. In comparison, according to EIA data, the average retail price for regular gasoline in the US was $3.31 per gallon in 2024.