Metals fell nearly across the board, with LME copper, LME zinc, and coking coal and coke down over 1%, while alumina surged nearly 7%. New York gold futures fell sharply on a weekly basis [overnight market].

SMM May 17 Report:

Metal Market:

Overnight, the domestic market's base metals mostly fell, with SHFE tin rising 0.48%. SHFE copper fell 0.82%, SHFE nickel dropped 0.75%, SHFE lead slightly declined 0.09%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.2%, and SHFE zinc fell 0.44%. Additionally, influenced by the news that the government of Guinea, the world's second-largest bauxite producer, had announced the revocation of 51 mining licenses, the most-traded alumina futures contract once hit the daily limit-up price of 3,149 yuan/mt during the session, ultimately closing up 6.73% at 3,141 yuan/mt.

》Guinea, the World's Second-Largest Bauxite Producer, Takes Strong Action, Revoking 51 Mining Licenses at Once

Overnight, the ferrous metals series all fell, with iron ore dropping 0.48%, stainless steel declining 0.23%, rebar falling 0.45%, and HRC decreasing 0.37%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 1.04%, and coke dropped 1.55%.

In the overseas metal market overnight, LME base metals mostly declined, with LME copper falling 1.43%, LME aluminum dropping 0.18%, LME lead slightly rising, LME zinc falling 1.41%, LME tin decreasing 1.01%, and LME nickel dropping 1.23%.

Overnight, in the precious metals market: COMEX gold fell 0.66%, and COMEX gold's weekly decline was 4.15%, marking its worst weekly performance since November 2024. COMEX silver fell 0.76%, and its weekly decline was 1.47%. Overnight, SHFE gold fell 0.38%, with a weekly decline of 4.61%, while SHFE silver fell 0.15%, with a weekly decline of 0.59%.

As of 8:39 on May 17, overnight closing prices

》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic:

[Seven Departments: Further Leverage the Role of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives and Other Business Entities to Accelerate the Construction of a Recycling System for Renewable Resources Such as Waste Home Appliances and Furniture]The General Offices of seven departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, issued a notice on "Further Leveraging the Role of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives and Other Business Entities to Accelerate the Construction of a Recycling System for Renewable Resources Such as Waste Home Appliances and Furniture." The notice proposed innovating the recycling model for renewable resources. All regions should guide various recycling enterprises to develop an "Internet +" recycling model and cultivate a batch of new-type renewable resource recycling enterprises. It encourages various business entities, including recycling enterprises of supply and marketing cooperatives, to connect with home appliance and furniture sales enterprises to carry out "trade-in + recycling" businesses, providing services such as in-home disassembly and recycling of waste home appliances and furniture, as well as delivery and installation of new products. It promotes standardized recycling enterprises to cooperate with local government agencies, enterprises, and institutions to carry out waste recycling and resource utilization businesses, and popularize the "public property warehouse" entrusted operation service model. Support supply and marketing cooperatives in developing a digital integrated service platform for renewable resources, enriching functions such as information exchange and online transactions.

[CSRC: Encouraging Private Equity Funds to Participate in M&A and Restructuring of Publicly Listed Firms] The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the Decision on Amending the Measures for the Administration of Major Asset Restructuring of Publicly Listed Firms, encouraging private equity funds to participate in the M&A and restructuring of publicly listed firms. It implemented a "reverse linkage" between the investment period of private equity funds and the lock-up period for shares acquired through restructuring. Specifically, if the investment period of a private equity fund is 48 months or longer, the lock-up period in third-party transactions is shortened from 12 months to 6 months, and the lock-up period for shareholders other than the controlling shareholders, actual controllers, and their affiliated persons under their control in restructuring listings is shortened from 24 months to 12 months.

[Maritime Silk Road Index: Tariff Cuts Lead to Increased Demand, Freight Rate Index for US West Coast Route Rises 23.2% WoW] The Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI), part of the Maritime Silk Road Index released by the Ningbo Shipping Exchange this week, closed at 1,014.6 points, up 6.5% WoW. Among the 21 routes, freight rate indices for 9 routes increased, 10 decreased, and 2 remained basically flat. Among the main ports along the "Maritime Silk Road," freight rate indices for 9 ports increased, 6 decreased, and 1 remained basically flat. Following the new Sino-US tariff agreement, transportation demand has increased, and liner companies have happily announced freight rate hikes. The freight rate index for the US East Coast route was 1,455.0 points, up 21.5% WoW; the freight rate index for the US West Coast route was 1,813.1 points, up 23.2% WoW. The freight rate index for the European route was 750.9 points, down 0.8% WoW; the freight rate index for the Eastern Mediterranean route was 951.1 points, down 0.8% WoW; and the freight rate index for the Western Mediterranean route was 1,265.7 points, down 0.4% WoW. (Financial Link)

[Beijing to Issue Additional 20,000 New Energy Passenger Vehicle Quotas for Carless Households] On the basis of the targeted issuance of 40,000 new energy passenger vehicle quotas, Beijing has issued an additional 20,000 new energy passenger vehicle quotas and will announce the list of shortlisted households on May 26. It is reported that the total quota for passenger vehicles in 2025 is 160,000, including an annual quota of 100,000 and an additional issuance of 60,000 new energy quotas. All additional quotas are allocated to carless households applying for new energy quotas. On May 26, after allocating 58,400 annual family new energy passenger vehicle quotas for the year, the remaining 60,000 quotas will be allocated to carless households in descending order of their total family points. For households with the same total points, priority will be given based on the registration time of the earliest family applicant in the Beijing Passenger Vehicle Quota Allocation and Management Information System. At that time, the city will allocate 118,400 new energy passenger vehicle indicators to carless households in a one-off manner.

US dollar:

The US dollar index rose by 0.15% overnight, closing at 100.96. Weekly performance: The US dollar index has risen for four consecutive weeks, with a weekly gain of 0.55%. The latest round of US economic data shows that import prices rebounded in April, while consumer confidence remained sluggish in May, amid growing concerns about the impact of President Trump's trade policies. The US Department of Labor stated that after a 0.4% decline in March, US import prices rose by 0.1% last month, as the surge in capital goods costs outweighed the decline in energy prices. Economists surveyed had previously forecast a 0.4% decline in import prices, excluding tariffs. The University of Michigan's consumer survey showed that the US consumer confidence index fell to 50.8 this month from a final value of 52.2 in April, below the estimated 53.4. In addition, consumers' 12-month inflation expectations surged from 6.5% to 7.3%, the highest level since November 1981.

The market expects the US Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, starting in September. Data shows that as signs of easing trade tensions emerge, the market has lowered its expectations for the US Fed's interest rate cuts this year, believing there is a 67.1% probability of at least a 25-basis-point cut at its September meeting. The previous view was that interest rate cuts might begin in July. Recent comments from Fed officials indicate that the Fed needs more data to determine the impact of tariff announcements on prices and the economy before adjusting its policies. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

International credit rating agency Moody's announced on May 16 that due to the increase in the US government's debt and interest payment ratio, it has decided to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1, while adjusting the outlook for the US sovereign credit rating from "negative" to "stable". Moody's stated that the US federal debt burden will rise to 134% of GDP by 2035; it is expected that the US federal government deficit will reach 9% of GDP by 2035; as the economy adjusts in response to tariffs, GDP growth may slow down. (Finance Link)

Other currencies:

European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane stated that the ECB will release more economic scenario assumptions for the eurozone along with its quarterly outlook report next month, in an attempt to capture the potential impacts of the current trade turmoil. Speaking at a conference organized by the US Fed, the official said that such measures are necessary under certain circumstances, citing the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict as examples. Lane stated in Washington on Friday that in the near term, the continued uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies means that alternative scenarios will also be incorporated into the macroeconomic forecasts in June. (Huitong Finance)

Macro Aspects:

Next week, the following data will be released: China's year-to-date annual rate of urban fixed asset investment in April, China's year-to-date annual rate of industrial added value above designated size in April, China's monthly annual rate of industrial added value above designated size in April, China's annual rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in April, China's year-to-date annual rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in April, China's monthly rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in April, the Eurozone's unadjusted final annual rate of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in April, the Eurozone's unadjusted final annual rate of core HICP in April, Australia's ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index for the week ending May 18, China's one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for May, China's five-year LPR for May, Australia's cash rate for May, Canada's unadjusted annual rate of Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April, Canada's monthly rate of Bank of Canada core CPI in April, the Eurozone's preliminary consumer confidence index for May, New Zealand's trade balance in April, Japan's unadjusted merchandise trade balance in April, the UK's annual rate of CPI in April, the UK's annual rate of Retail Price Index (RPI) in April, France's preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May, Germany's preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May, the Eurozone's preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May, Germany's IFO Business Climate Index for May, the UK's preliminary S&P Global Services PMI for May, the UK's preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May, the UK's CBI Industrial Trends Orders Balance for May, Canada's CFIB Business Barometer for May, the US's initial jobless claims for the week ending May 17, the US's continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 17, the US's preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May, the US's annualized total existing home sales in April, the UK's GfK Consumer Confidence Index for May, Japan's annual rate of nationwide CPI in April, Japan's annual rate of nationwide core CPI in April, Germany's revised quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate for Q1, Germany's revised year-on-year unadjusted quarterly GDP growth rate for Q1, the UK's monthly seasonally adjusted retail sales growth rate in April, the US's revised monthly building permits growth rate in April, Canada's monthly retail sales growth rate in March, the US's annualized total new home sales after seasonal adjustment in April, etc.

In addition, next week, the following events are worth noting: the release of the Eurozone's unadjusted final annual rate of core HICP in April; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releasing the monthly report on residential property sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office holding a press conference on the national economic performance; NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang attending Computex Taipei and delivering a speech to share the latest progress and breakthroughs in "AI and Accelerated Computing Technology"; US Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson delivering a speech; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President John Williams delivering a speech; the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announcing its interest rate decision; RBA Governor Michele Bullock holding a monetary policy press conference; the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting being held until May 22; 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem delivering a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter Raphael Bostic chairing a meeting, with 2026 FOMC voter Loretta Mester and 2027 FOMC voter Mary Daly delivering keynote speeches; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin attending an event titled "Fed Listens"; the European Central Bank (ECB) releasing the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting; and FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President John Williams delivering a keynote speech at a seminar on monetary policy implementation.

Crude Oil:

Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose, with WTI up 1.28% and Brent up 1.24%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures posted gains for two consecutive weeks, rising 1.49% this week, while Brent futures extended gains for two straight weeks, up 2.22% this week. Easing trade tensions supported oil prices, but expectations of increased supply from Iran and OPEC limited the gains. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday that it expects global supply to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) this year as OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, lift production cuts, an upward revision of 380,000 bpd from its previous forecast.

A report released on Friday by Baker Hughes, a US energy services company, showed that the number of oil and natural gas rigs operated by US energy firms fell for the third consecutive week this week, the first such decline since mid-April. Data showed that the total number of oil and natural gas rigs in the US fell by 2 to 576 in the week ending May 16, the lowest level since January. This brought the total number of active rigs down by 28, or 5%, YoY. During the same week, the number of active oil rigs in the US fell by 1 to 473, the lowest level since January, while the number of natural gas rigs decreased by 1 to 100, the first decline since early April.

In addition, it is worth noting next week: The June NYMEX New York crude oil futures contract will be affected by contract rollover, with the last floor trade completed at 2:30 AM on May 21 and the last electronic trade at 5:00 AM. Please pay attention to the exchange's contract rollover announcements to manage risks. Additionally, the expiration time for some trading platforms' WTI contracts is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX expiration. Please take note.