As risk aversion ebbs, the international gold price has dropped to a low of $3,120 per ounce, yet long-term supporting factors still remain.

Recently, the US-China tariff war has come to an end, and market risk aversion has eased. Gold, which had surged earlier, has pulled back and adjusted, breaking below the $3,300 and $3,200 per ounce levels. On May 15, the international gold price fell to a low of $3,120 per ounce, a correction of nearly $380 from the previous high of $3,500, attracting widespread market attention.

On April 22, the international gold price climbed strongly, reaching a record high of $3,500 per ounce, causing a stir in the market. The gold price soared, prompting many consumers to become interested in gold investment.

However, in the past week, spot gold has fallen multiple times. On May 12, it plummeted by 2.73%, losing up to $118 per ounce during the session. On the evening of May 14, spot gold fell below $3,180 per ounce.

In addition, on May 15, COMEX gold fell more than 2%, hitting a new low in over a month at $3,123.3 per ounce.

Analysts from BOC International Futures believe that with the US-China tariff war coming to an end, and geopolitical tensions easing in regions such as India-Pakistan, the Iran nuclear issue, and even Russia-Ukraine, market risk aversion has eased. Additionally, factors such as the US securing major arms deals with Middle Eastern countries have helped stabilize the US dollar index. As a result, gold, which had surged earlier, has pulled back and adjusted. Technically, the daily candlestick of London gold shows a double-top pattern and has effectively broken below the neckline at $3,200 per ounce, continuing to adjust. From a graphical perspective, the first target for the adjustment may be around the 60-day moving average at $3,120-3,100 per ounce, and the second target may be near $2,960-3,000 per ounce.

Bohai Securities points out that in the short term, spot gold (Au99.99 contract) is affected by optimistic trade talks and easing geopolitical tensions, with its risk-hedging appeal weakened, and the gold price may come under pressure. However, in the long term, factors such as the US's persistently high debt and deficit ratios, potential reflation risks, complex global geopolitical situations, and gold purchases by multiple central banks all support the gold price. Against the backdrop of easing macro sentiment, short-term fluctuations need to be monitored, while long-term fundamental positive factors still exist, and the industry has strategic allocation value.

Recently, Citi expects gold to consolidate in the range of $3,000-3,300 per ounce in the coming months, lowering its 0-3 month target price to $3,150 per ounce.

In the long term, there are still many supporting factors for gold's investment value. From the perspective of global central banks, in Q1 2025, global central banks' net gold purchases reached as high as 244 mt, with total global gold investment demand at 552 mt, a surge of 170% YoY. Total global demand for gold bars and coins was 325 mt, up 3% YoY, and 15% higher than the five-year quarterly average. Among them, China's demand for gold bars and coins in Q1 reached 124 mt, up 48% MoM and 12% YoY, hitting the second-highest quarterly level in history, second only to Q2 2013.

Wang Lixin, CEO of the World Gold Council in China, believes that in the long run, gold, as a strategic asset, has its significance. Against the backdrop of increased correlation and volatility between stocks and bonds, gold can serve as a safe-haven asset and secure a place. In addition, it has become evident in the past two years that gold has become a tool capable of generating returns.