How Did the Domestic Galvanized Sheet Perform During the Traditional Peak Season + Tariff Disruptions? [SMM Analysis]

SMM May 15 News:

       The traditional consumption season for galvanized sheet typically falls in the "Golden March, Silver April" period. However, this year, Sino-US trade tensions have flared up again, with tariff changes affecting market sentiment and export orders facing renewed disruptions. Amidst these multiple factors, according to SMM statistics, the operating rates of galvanized sheet production remained relatively high in March and April this year, showing no significant YoY pullback. What exactly is the situation?

Let's examine domestic trade orders.

• Construction sheet. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to March 2025, the cumulative year-on-year decrease in newly started construction area for real estate was 24.4%, and the cumulative year-on-year decrease in completed construction area for real estate was -14.3%. Steel-related demand continued to slow down YoY. Although construction projects largely resumed in March and April, the decline in end-use demand resulted in galvanized sheet orders still falling short of previous years' levels.

• Home appliance sheet. Summer is the traditional sales promotion season for the three major white goods. Coupled with policies such as national subsidies continuing to boost consumption this year, it has brought a traditional stockpiling peak season for galvanized sheet manufacturers for home appliances, lasting roughly two months in March and April. Orders for related home appliance sheets have been robust.
• Automotive sheet. According to CAAM data on a YoY basis, from January to April 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased by 12.9% and 10.80% YoY, respectively. The automotive sector continued to grow rapidly compared to last year, and the improvement in end-use demand brought a large number of orders for related galvanized sheets. The operating rates of galvanized sheet manufacturers remained high in March and April.

Now, let's look at export orders.

       This year, Sino-US tariff conflicts have escalated continuously. To avoid high tariff rates, some enterprises in Southeast Asia began placing orders for galvanized sheets in China in advance starting in March, with "rush exports" gradually emerging. Additionally, starting in April, China has been cracking down on export orders involving false invoicing. Some affected export sheet manufacturers have been rushing to meet deadlines to ship goods before May, maintaining relatively high operating rates. Combining these two factors, domestic galvanized sheet export orders have been robust in March and April. However, there are some factors of consumption brought forward, and the market has certain concerns about subsequent export orders.

       Overall, despite the YoY pullback in domestic trade orders, boosted by export orders, the operating rates during this year's "Golden March, Silver April" period remained relatively good, though there was no significant outperformance. Entering May, some enterprises have reported a decline in domestic trade orders. However, export production schedules for May can still be maintained. Coupled with the recent announcement of the results of Sino-US tariff negotiations, which saw a significant reduction in tariff rates and the re-emergence of a 90-day suspension period, SMM will continue to monitor whether there will be a new round of "rush exports" in the future.