Shipping Sector Surges Again: Leading Stock Doubles in 4 Days. How Long Will the Rush Shipping Window Last?

Today, the shipping sector continued to surge. As of press time, the concept stock China COSCO Shipping (Ocean) had risen by over 19%, nearly doubling in value over the past four trading days.

In response to questions about whether orders were sufficient and whether there were enough cargo ships, China COSCO Shipping (Ocean) stated that amid the mild global economic recovery, the international maritime shipping market was showing steady growth. Currently, the company's foreign trade routes covered regions such as the European Atlantic, Australia, North and South America, Southeast Asia, East and South Asia, and Africa, with its capacity scale continuing to grow.

Additionally, individual stocks in the shipping industry chain, including Nanjing Port, Ningbo Maritime, Ningbo Ocean, and Lianyungang, had achieved three consecutive daily limit-ups, while COSCO SHIPPING Development and Jinjiang Shipping had achieved two consecutive daily limit-ups.

On the news front, recently, substantial progress was made in the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US, leading to a significant reduction in bilateral tariff levels. The US side canceled tariffs imposed on a total of 91% of goods, and China correspondingly canceled retaliatory tariffs on 91% of goods. Meanwhile, coinciding with the peak season for container shipments on the Europe-US routes, the market expected a concentrated increase in inventory demand in the US supply chain, driving an unexpected improvement in cargo volume demand. Although China and the US are far apart geographically, the 90-day consultation period is still sufficient to cover the maritime shipping cycle. It is expected that US buyers will act swiftly to increase bookings on China-US routes and expand the procurement of goods imported from China.

On the other hand, the Civil Aviation Administration of China held the 2025 Flight Normality and Service Quality Work Conference and the Thunderstorm Season Support Deployment Conference in Beijing. The conference emphasized the need to deepen and implement the "trunk-feeder-general aviation network integration" strategy to promote the optimization and upgrading of domestic transfer service products.

It is worth noting that, as a barometer of the US transportation industry, the Dow Jones Transportation Average had risen by over 7% since the beginning of this week. Shipping giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd had risen by nearly 11% and 12.5%, respectively.

CICC stated that the effective US tariff rate would decrease from the previous 28.4% to 15.5%, a reduction that exceeded market expectations. The reduction in China-US tariffs (with the cancellation of 91% of tariffs imposed) would directly drive a rebound in cargo volume on the US West Coast and US East Coast routes. It is expected that freight rates on the US routes will increase by 10% in 2025. Meanwhile, coinciding with the peak season for container shipments on the Europe-US routes, the most-traded contract of the Container Shipping Index (European route) rose by over 10% intraday, bringing significant positive news to the shipping and port sector.

Cinda Securities stated that the extent of tariff reductions far exceeded market expectations. Coupled with the approaching traditional peak season for transportation in Europe and the US, cargo owners, driven by the dual considerations of reducing tariff costs and rushing to meet deadlines, might initiate a concentrated "rush shipping" operation. In the short term, cargo volume on the Asia-Europe and Transpacific routes may experience a pulsed growth.

The research report from CITIC Futures pointed out that in the short term, the market may revolve around the effect of restocking inventory in the US routes, driving a rush of export transactions. Galaxy Futures also predicted that in the next 90 days, a window period for rush shipping is expected to be set aside. Coupled with the fact that the container shipping peak season on the Europe-US routes is gradually approaching, shippers' concerns about future tariff uncertainties are expected to trigger a short-term rush of shipping and restocking.