Macro front factors influence rare earth prices to remain stable at a high level [SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review]

May 15 news:

Rare earth ores:

Today, the price range of rare earth carbonate is 35,000-35,200 yuan/mt, the price of monazite has been adjusted to 41,000-41,600 yuan/mt, and the price of medium-yttrium, europium-rich ore is approximately 189,000-190,000 yuan/mt. Recently, the overall prices of rare earth ores have held up well, with suppliers showing increased reluctance to sell, leading to a significant decrease in shipments of rare earth ores. Meanwhile, as Southeast Asia enters the rainy season, imports of ion-adsorption ore will be affected to a certain extent. Following the Sino-US tariff negotiations, some domestic industry players expect the resumption of MP concentrate imports. At the same time, the imports of monazite have also increased significantly YoY.

Rare earth oxides:

Currently, the price of lanthanum oxide is temporarily stable at 4,200-4,800 yuan/mt, and the price of cerium oxide has also remained stable this week at 10,400-12,000 yuan/mt. With the arrival of the off-season for downstream demand for rare earths, the demand for rare earth raw materials has significantly decreased, and the purchasing enthusiasm in the lanthanum-cerium market has also declined recently. However, influenced by adjustments in macro front factors, the prices of mainstream rare earth products have risen significantly this week. The price of Pr-Nd oxide has increased substantially this week, with many industry players showing increased bullish sentiment, and suppliers have also raised their quotes. Meanwhile, amid tight supply of ion-adsorption ore, the prices of medium-heavy rare earths such as dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide have also mainly held up well this week. The price of yttrium oxide has temporarily stabilized at 50,000-52,000 yuan/mt this week, with relatively small market fluctuations.

Rare earth metals:

This week, the availability of low-priced supplies in the metal market has significantly decreased. It is reported that due to the agreement reached in the Sino-US negotiations, some industry insiders expect that rare earth export controls will be gradually eased in the future, leading to a surge in bullish sentiment in the market and a subsequent increase in rare earth metal prices. However, in reality, there has been no change in the rare earth export control policy. Additionally, during the off-season for end-use demand, there has been no significant increase in orders from downstream magnetic material enterprises. With the supply-demand pattern remaining unchanged, the rare earth metal market has gradually returned to rationality, and it is expected that metal prices will consolidate at high levels in the short term.

Rare earth permanent magnets:

The prices of NdFeB blanks are as follows: NdFeB blank N38 (Ce) is priced at 140-150 yuan/kg; NdFeB blank 40M is priced at 186-196 yuan/kg; NdFeB blank 40H is priced at 190-200 yuan/kg; NdFeB blank 45SH (Ce) is priced at 240-260 yuan/kg.

This week, the release of positive news on macro policies has led the market to expect that rare earth export controls will be gradually eased in the future, triggering bullish sentiment in the market and causing an overall increase in rare earth market prices. The prices of magnetic materials have risen passively due to the increase in metal costs. However, due to the ongoing export restrictions on rare earths and the current off-season in end-user demand, the orders of magnetic material enterprises have not increased significantly, resulting in limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials. Most magnetic material enterprises have adopted a purchasing-as-needed strategy, and the market sentiment remains cautious. In the short term, the trend of magnetic material prices still needs to be monitored for changes in end-user demand and further news on macro policies.

Rare Earth Scrap:

This week, the price of Pr-Nd recycled from NdFeB scrap closed at 462-468 yuan/kg; the price of dysprosium recycled from NdFeB scrap closed at 1,606-1,628 yuan/kg; and the price of terbium recycled from NdFeB scrap closed at 5,335-5,445 yuan/kg.

Affected by macro factors, the market prices of oxides have risen. Meanwhile, as magnetic material enterprises are in the off-season for end-user demand, with poor order conditions, the circulation of scrap in the market has decreased, resulting in an overall undersupply. This phenomenon has driven up the prices of mainstream products in the scrap market.

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