The "rush shipping" battle is imminent! Goldman Sachs predicts: China's exports will surge in the next 90 days

With the official implementation of the outcomes outlined in the Joint Statement of the China-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks this Wednesday (May 14), many industry insiders anticipate a significant surge in trade between China and the US over the next 90 days. This is because, as negotiators from both sides strive to achieve further progress in consultations, enterprises will compete to intensify their inventory stockpiling efforts. In particular, US importers may initiate a new round of purchasing frenzy.

According to the Joint Statement of the China-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks released this Monday, substantial progress was made in the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US, leading to a significant reduction in bilateral tariff levels. The US side canceled a total of 91% of the tariff hikes, and China correspondingly abolished 91% of its retaliatory tariffs. The US also suspended the implementation of 24% of its "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days, and China similarly suspended 24% of its retaliatory tariffs for the same period.

Given that US importers will face a clear window of significantly reduced import costs over the next three months, Goldman Sachs analyst Philip Sun couldn't help but ask on Tuesday, "Just imagine: with this 90-day tariff suspension period, how eager will Chinese exporters and US importers be to rush to place orders?"

Note: Diagram Illustrating Changes in US Tariff Rates on Imports from China

"We are living in a highly uncertain world. Who knows what will happen in 90 days (or even during this period)? Should retail giants like Walmart stock up on Christmas goods as much as possible, perhaps not just to meet the demand for 2025 but even to stockpile for 2026 in advance?" Sun said.

Sun answered his own question with a bold prediction: "In the next 90 days, China's exports will explode. 'Frontrunning' will become the key word."

A "rush shipping" battle is imminent

In fact, many market participants share similar views with the Goldman Sachs analyst.

Scott Kennedy, Senior Adviser for China Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), stated in a media interview that, as enterprises rush to ship goods across the Pacific while tariffs are low, he expects China-US trade to accelerate during the 90-day negotiation period.

Kennedy believes that China-US trade should increase, and we may witness a significant jump in the shipping volumes of some companies. These companies may still have concerns about the situation a few months from now, and they need to take advantage of this breathing space to expand their import scale and accelerate trade.

Some industry insiders are drawing parallels between the current situation and the one at the end of last year. In December 2024, China's exports to the US surged by 15.6% compared to the same period in 2023, due to the fact that many US enterprises stockpiled goods in advance in anticipation of tariffs that were expected to be imposed after Trump took office.

It is worth mentioning that Cailian Press reported on Tuesday that after the good news of the Sino-US tariff negotiations broke, some US importers were so excited that they "jumped out of bed and made calls" in the early hours of Monday local time, urging Chinese suppliers to ship goods to secure container space.

Ryan Petersen, CEO of international shipping broker Flexport, also said, "Since the first day of the trade agreement, our ocean freight orders from China to the US have increased by 35%. A large number of orders are expected to pile up, and vessel space will soon be snapped up." "

In response to the surge in container shipping on the US route,

some international liner giants are already preparing for it.

Freight forwarders such as CMA CGM said that the 90-day suspension period and the reduction of tariff rates between China and the US are "good news." A Maersk spokesperson said, "Now that our customers have clarity on the 90-day tariff reduction, we are working hard to help them make the most of this window."

Note: Global shipping situation map, with ships highlighted.

Lu Ting, Nomura's chief China economist, wrote in a report on Monday, "As many exporters may have postponed shipments to the US in April, the significant rollback of tariffs is likely to stimulate a wave of pent-up exports."

There are signs that the surge in container shipping on the US route has led to a rapid spike in short-term freight rates. Jefferies analysts pointed out in a report that container freight rates on the trans-Pacific route between China and the US have surged from $2,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) in mid-April to around $2,500 this week.

Jefferies analysts said, "The container shipping industry is expected to see a substantial improvement in spot freight rates, mainly based on two fundamental factors: the recovery of normal cargo volumes and the start of the peak season, which usually begins in July. Given the tightening of trans-Pacific capacity, shipping companies are fully in control of pushing up freight rates."