【SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Summary】Refined Cobalt Spot Cargo Prices Stable, Volatility Likely to Continue Next Week

Refined Cobalt:

This week, the spot price of refined cobalt remained stable. From the supply side, social inventory in the market remained high. Due to the sustained high cost of raw materials, the economic viability of refined cobalt production continued to decline, leading to ongoing production cuts by smelters. From the demand side, downstream producers maintained their production schedules based on demand, with relatively low enthusiasm for stockpiling and a strong wait-and-see sentiment. It is expected that next week, the price of refined cobalt may continue to fluctuate.

Cobalt Intermediate Products:

This week, the spot price of cobalt intermediate products remained stable. On the supply side, mainstream miners continued to supply under long-term contracts and suspended spot order quotations, leaving only trader-sourced goods circulating in the market, with traders maintaining relatively high quotations. After completing some stockpiling in the early stage, downstream producers' purchase willingness declined this week, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market and limited spot transactions of cobalt intermediate products. It is expected that next week, with no immediate improvement in short-term supply and demand, the spot price of cobalt intermediate products may remain stable.

Cobalt Sulphate:

The spot price of cobalt sulphate declined slightly this week. From the supply side, cobalt salt smelters continued to adopt a strategy of standing firm on quotes. However, some recycling plants slightly lowered their cobalt sulphate quotations due to financial pressure. Social obsolete inventory decreased slightly, with low-priced old goods being gradually absorbed by the market. From the demand side, downstream producers maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with extremely sluggish market inquiries. It is expected that in the near future, if the DRC introduces follow-up cobalt policies, it may stimulate downstream producers to make purchases, potentially leading to a rebound in spot transactions of cobalt sulphate.

Cobalt Chloride:

This week, the price of cobalt chloride remained stable. In terms of supply, due to unresolved raw material shortages, most producers maintained relatively high quotations, with little possibility of low-priced sales. On the demand side, the market was slightly sluggish after the holiday, with few inquiries and purchases mainly driven by rigid demand. Spot prices fluctuated at highs. It is expected that next week, if the market continues to be sluggish, the transaction price of cobalt chloride may decline slightly. However, due to producers' reluctance to sell, the price decline is expected to be limited.

Cobalt Salts (Co3O4):

This week, the spot price of Co3O4 declined. On the supply side, the market was relatively sluggish after the holiday. Most smelters maintained their pre-holiday quotations, but transaction activity weakened. On the demand side, some enterprises had completed necessary procurement tasks, with decreased acceptance of high-priced Co3O4, leading to a decline in spot prices. It is expected that next week, as LCO cathode producers' inventories are gradually depleted and may generate certain replenishment demand, a new round of purchasing may be triggered. Therefore, the downward space for Co3O4 spot prices may be limited, with prices more likely to fluctuate at highs.

Cobalt Powder and Others:

This week, the cobalt powder market continued to operate smoothly, with producers maintaining stable quotations overall and only limited room for negotiation based on order size differences. From the supply and demand perspective, although demand from the downstream alloy industry remained relatively stable, the continuous influx of recycled materials squeezed the primary cobalt powder market, leading to significantly low purchase willingness for primary cobalt powder among downstream buyers and a slightly sluggish market trading atmosphere.

Ternary Cathode Precursor:

This week, in the ternary cathode precursor market, prices for 5-series consumer products declined, while prices for 6-series consumer and 8-series for NEV products rose slightly. In terms of raw material costs, nickel sulphate prices increased slightly, while cobalt sulphate and manganese sulphate prices declined slightly. Due to the high proportion of cobalt sulphate in 5-series ternary cathode precursors, their prices were affected by the decline in cobalt sulphate prices. In contrast, 6-series and 8-series precursors, with a higher proportion of nickel sulphate, showed a slight upward price trend. From the demand side, the market for large-capacity NEV precursors remained relatively stable. Although there was order transfer among producers, overall demand did not fluctuate significantly, mainly supported by existing projects. In contrast, small-capacity and consumer precursors showed good recent demand. However, due to their limited overall scale, their boosting effect on overall market demand remained relatively limited. On the supply side, due to significant market fluctuations this year, NEV precursor producers generally ceased signing long-term (e.g., six-month or one-year) orders, instead opting for monthly discount negotiations. A few enterprises had increased discount coefficients for long-term contracts. Consumer precursors still primarily relied on spot order shipments, with no significant changes in discount coefficients since April. Precursor plants and downstream material plants remained in price negotiations. Looking ahead to next week, it is expected that nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices will continue to rise mildly, potentially driving a further slight increase in ternary cathode precursor prices due to raw material cost pressures.

Ternary Cathode Material:

This week, ternary cathode material prices continued to decline. On the raw material side, nickel sulphate prices increased slightly, while cobalt sulphate and manganese sulphate prices declined slightly. Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices fell sharply, collectively weakening prices across various ternary cathode material series. Currently, market supply mainly relies on previously signed long-term contracts, with some enterprises increasing relevant discount coefficients. For spot transactions, producers generally settled by negotiating discounts separately for raw materials such as nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and lithium carbonate. In terms of production and order execution, overall demand for large-capacity NEV ternary cathode materials remained relatively stable, but market share adjustments occurred among different series. High-nickelization remains the long-term development direction for ternary cathode materials, although the pace has slowed. Benefiting from dual advantages in cost and performance, medium-nickel high-voltage products have recently gained more market attention. It is expected that 6-series ternary cathode materials may encroach on the market share of 8-series materials in the future. Consumer and small-capacity NEV ternary cathode material orders have shown good recent performance, driven by two main factors: first, seasonal demand increases for consumer products; second, accelerated high-end transformation of downstream power tools and other products, driving demand growth for high-performance ternary cathode materials. Regarding price trends, it is expected that nickel salt and cobalt salt prices will rise mildly in the future, while lithium salt prices may still weaken significantly. Ternary cathode material prices may continue to decline further due to fluctuations in raw material prices.

LCO Cathode:

This week, mainstream quotations for 4.2V/4.4V/4.5V LCO cathode in the market were 221,000 yuan/mt, 226,000 yuan/mt, and 237,000 yuan/mt, respectively. On the raw material side, battery-grade lithium carbonate continued its previous downward trend this week, and Co3O4 prices declined slightly. Affected by raw material prices, LCO cathode prices fell slightly this week. On the supply side, starting from April, top-tier enterprises fully released their capacity, with stable production increases maintained at high levels. On the demand side, terminal producers stocked up for the 618 shopping festival, driving an increase in battery cell manufacturers' purchase orders. Additionally, affected by DRC policies, cobalt remains highly uncertain, leading LCO cathode plants to be cautious in shipments.

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News:    

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