Weekly operating capacity drops back slightly, with short-term alumina prices expected to fluctuate mainly {{SMM Alumina Weekly Review}}

SMM News on May 8:

Price Review:

As of Thursday this week, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,895.86 yuan/mt, down 0.07 yuan/mt from Wednesday last week. In Shandong, prices were reported at 2,830-2,880 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from Wednesday last week; in Henan, prices were reported at 2,870-2,950 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from Wednesday last week; in Shanxi, prices were reported at 2,870-2,930 yuan/mt, unchanged from Wednesday last week; in Guangxi, prices were reported at 2,840-2,920 yuan/mt, unchanged from Wednesday last week; in Guizhou, prices were reported at 2,930-2,970 yuan/mt, unchanged from Wednesday last week; in Bayuquan, prices were reported at 3,110-3,190 yuan/mt.

Overseas Market:

As of May 8, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $348/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $20.50/mt. The selling rate of the USD/CNY exchange rate hovered around 7.26. This price translates to an approximate external selling price of 3,102 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is 206 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price, keeping the alumina import window closed. This week, one new overseas spot alumina transaction was inquired about, with the transaction price rising slightly by $0.5/mt from the previous deal: On April 30, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a price of $348/mt FOB Western Australia, with a shipment scheduled for late May.

Domestic Market:

According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, the total installed capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina nationwide was 109.22 million mt/year, with a total operating capacity of 87.02 million mt/year. The national weekly alumina operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points WoW to 79.67%. The operating capacities of alumina enterprises varied, with maintenance-related production cuts and production resumptions and new investments coexisting. The total national operating capacity decreased by 80,000 mt/year WoW. Specifically, the weekly alumina operating rate in Shandong decreased by 1.53 percentage points WoW to 90.21%; in Shanxi, it increased by 2.8 percentage points WoW to 76.00%; in Henan, it remained unchanged from the previous week at 52.50%; in Guangxi, it increased by 0.12 percentage points WoW to 95.15%.

During the period, spot alumina transaction prices rebounded slightly. By region: Aluminum plants in Xinjiang tendered to purchase some alumina, with delivery-to-factory prices around 3,150-3,190 yuan/mt; 5,000 mt of alumina was traded in Shandong at a price of 2,880 yuan/mt; 2,000 mt of alumina was traded in Henan at a price of 2,940 yuan/mt; 5,000 mt of alumina was traded in Guizhou at a price of 3,000 yuan/mt. In addition, futures prices were in the doldrums early in the week, with low futures market prices. Some warrant cargo transactions were inquired about in Shandong, Xinjiang, and Guangxi, with absolute prices showing a significant discount to the online prices.

Overall:

This week, alumina enterprises saw both increases and decreases in their operating capacity, with the total operating capacity declining slightly by 80,000 mt/month. It is expected that some alumina enterprises will conduct maintenance in the following period, while new alumina capacity is anticipated to continue commissioning and ramp up production. In the short term, the operating capacity of alumina may fluctuate. Recently, downstream feedback indicates that spot cargo availability is tight in some regional markets. With suppliers standing firm on quotes, spot prices may rebound slightly. However, on the cost side, bauxite prices have fallen significantly compared to the previous period, weakening the support from the cost line. Overall, the alumina market is influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term.

Source: SMM

》Click to view SMM Aluminum Industry Chain Database