Summary of Key News During Labour Day Holiday, Preview of Important Data and Major Events This Week

During the Labour Day holiday, the domestic market was closed while overseas markets remained open. During the holiday, the offshore yuan saw a significant rise, domestic tourism and travel consumption data were impressive, Trump reiterated that the US Fed should cut interest rates, US non-farm payrolls in April exceeded expectations, and eight OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries decided to increase daily production by 411,000 barrels starting this June. SMM has summarized the macro news from both domestic and overseas markets during the Labour Day holiday, as well as key data and major events for this week, for your reference.

※ Macro News During the Holiday

【Ministry of Foreign Affairs: President Xi Jinping to Engage in Strategic Communication with President Putin on the Development of China-Russia Relations and Major International and Regional Issues】On May 4, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to questions regarding President Xi Jinping's upcoming state visit to Russia and his attendance at the 80th anniversary celebration of the Soviet Union's victory in the Great Patriotic War. The spokesperson stated that during this visit, President Xi will engage in strategic communication with President Putin on the development of China-Russia relations under the new circumstances and on major international and regional issues. It is believed that the important consensus reached by the two leaders will further deepen political trust between China and Russia, enrich the content of strategic cooperation, promote pragmatic collaboration in various fields, bring more benefits to the people of both countries, and contribute more stability and positive energy to the international community. This year also marks the 80th anniversary of the founding of the United Nations. As founding members and permanent members of the UN Security Council, China and Russia bear a special and significant responsibility in upholding the international system centered on the UN. The two sides will further strengthen close cooperation on multilateral platforms such as the UN, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and BRICS, unite the Global South, guide global governance in the right direction, firmly oppose unilateralism and bullying, and jointly promote a multipolar world and inclusive economic globalization. (CCTV News)

【Offshore Yuan Breaks Through the 7.20 Mark Against the US Dollar】During the Labour Day holiday, the US dollar saw a significant decline against the offshore yuan. On May 5, the offshore yuan broke through the 7.20 mark against the US dollar for the first time since November last year. As of 13:36 on May 5, the US dollar fell 0.21% against the offshore yuan, trading at 7.1965, with an intraday low of 7.1893.

(As of 13:36 on May 5, the trend of the US dollar against the offshore yuan)

【Chinese Ambassador to the US Xie Feng: Economic and Trade Relations Are Not a Zero-Sum Game, US Tariff Abuse Harms Both Sides】On May 3, the Chinese Embassy in the US hosted an open day and promotional event for Gansu Province, where Ambassador Xie Feng delivered a speech. Xie emphasized that the history of human development shows that openness leads to progress, while isolation leads to stagnation. Economic globalization has evolved into an unstoppable trend, and the complementary advantages of countries are an objective requirement for productivity development. Economic and trade relations are not a zero-sum game, and trade barriers are like trying to cut water with a knife. The US has greatly benefited from international trade, enjoying affordable goods from around the world while maintaining significant advantages in high-value-added sectors such as finance, technology, and services. In 2022 alone, US companies' sales in China exceeded those of Chinese companies in the US by over $400 billion. Overall, China-US economic and trade cooperation is balanced and mutually beneficial. Tariff abuse harms both sides, disrupts normal business operations and consumer lives, triggers severe fluctuations in global financial markets, and undermines the long-term stable growth of the world economy. While China does not wish to engage in a tariff war, it is not afraid to do so. China's firm stance is not only about safeguarding its legitimate rights but also about upholding the international economic and trade order. If the US is ready to negotiate, it should adopt an attitude of equality, respect, and reciprocity. Xie stressed that regardless of international uncertainties, China will continue to respond with the certainty of high-quality development and high-level openness. As the world's second-largest consumer market with the largest middle-income group, China has become a major trading partner for over 150 countries and regions. Last year, over 80,000 vehicles rolled off production lines daily, 3.4 million smartphones were produced, and more than 470 million parcels were delivered. In Q1 this year, China's economy achieved a strong start, with GDP up 5.4% YoY and exports growing 6.9% against the odds, expanding its international market network. (CLS)

【Lan Foan Chairs ASEAN Plus Three Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meetings and Holds Multiple Bilateral Meetings】According to the Ministry of Finance's website, the 28th ASEAN Plus Three (10+3) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting was held in Milan, Italy, on May 4, 2025. The meeting focused on global and regional macroeconomic conditions and 10+3 regional financial cooperation, culminating in a joint statement. Minister of Finance Lan Foan attended and co-chaired parts of the meeting, accompanied by Vice Minister Liao Min. Lan noted that the global economic landscape is undergoing profound adjustments, with globalization facing headwinds, unilateralism and protectionism on the rise, and increasing instability and uncertainty. The 10+3 regional economy demonstrates strong resilience and significant growth potential but also faces complex and severe internal and external challenges. All parties should firmly implement the consensus of the 10+3 Leaders' Meeting, uphold multilateralism and free trade, enhance macroeconomic policy communication and coordination, deepen intra-regional trade and investment cooperation, and maintain stable and smooth supply chains to contribute more to regional economic and financial stability and integration. Lan stated that China's Central Work Conference on Neighboring Diplomacy held in early April emphasized consolidating strategic trust with neighboring countries, deepening development integration, and jointly creating a better future. China is willing to work with 10+3 partners to uphold openness and inclusiveness, strengthen solidarity and cooperation, and continuously deepen regional financial cooperation to address global instability and uncertainty with regional stability and certainty. Lan announced China's additional $4 million donation to the AMRO China Technical Assistance Trust Fund and witnessed the signing ceremony, further supporting regional members in enhancing macroeconomic monitoring and financial stability capabilities. The meeting endorsed updates to the 10+3 financial cooperation strategic direction, agreed to launch technical assistance tools focusing on medium and long-term structural issues, acknowledged progress in discussions on the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization financing model, welcomed the successful leadership transition at AMRO, the expansion of the 10+3 financial think tank network, and the deepening development of regional local currency bond markets, and approved the conceptual document for the future roadmap of disaster risk financing initiatives.

【Lan Foan: Strengthen Fiscal and Tax Policy Support and Funding Guarantees in Key Areas of High-Quality Development】Lan Foan, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Minister of Finance, recently published an article in Qiushi magazine titled "Scientific Design and Successful Practice of a More Proactive Fiscal Policy," stating that "planning is key to success, while lack of planning leads to failure." Currently, the US's so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on all trading partners continue to cause global market turmoil, deepening the adverse impact on China's economic development and presenting new challenges to economic operations. It is necessary to implement a more proactive fiscal policy to effectively counter external risks and mitigate their adverse effects on China's economy. The fiscal department must thoroughly implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the deployment of this year's Government Work Report, focusing on key areas and weak links of high-quality development, strengthening fiscal and tax policy support and funding guarantees, adopting precise measures, and making sustained efforts to fully unleash the effectiveness of fiscal policies.

【China State Railway Group: Labour Day Holiday Passenger Volume Exceeds 100 Million】According to China State Railway Group Co., Ltd., on May 4, the national railway system transported 19.786 million passengers. From the start of the Labour Day holiday transportation on April 29 to May 4, the cumulative passenger volume reached 112 million, up 10.5% YoY, with safe and orderly operations. (CLS)

【Single-Day Traffic on Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge Exceeds 27,000 for the First Time】During the Labour Day holiday, a large number of Hong Kong and Macao residents traveled north via the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge for tourism, family visits, and to experience the festive atmosphere in mainland China. According to the Zhuhai Border Inspection Station of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge, on May 4, the number of vehicles crossing the Zhuhai highway port of the bridge exceeded 27,000 for the first time, including 26,000 small passenger cars and over 15,000 "Hong Kong cars heading north," all setting new records for the port.

【Labour Day Holiday Day 4: Cross-Regional Mobility Exceeds 270 Million】On May 4, the fourth day of the Labour Day holiday, the Ministry of Transport estimated that cross-regional mobility exceeded 270 million, including: railway passenger volume at 20.4 million, road mobility exceeding 240 million, waterway passenger volume at 1.7 million, and civil aviation passenger volume at 2.25 million. (CCTV News)

【NEV Charging Volume at Highway Service Areas Hits Record High During Labour Day Holiday】According to the State Grid's smart vehicle networking platform, during the first two days of the Labour Day holiday, NEV charging volume at highway service areas nationwide reached 15.9 million kWh, up 28% YoY, setting a new record.

【2025 Labour Day Box Office Exceeds 500 Million】According to online platform data, as of 18:40 on May 3, the total box office (including pre-sales) for the 2025 Labour Day period (May 1–May 5) exceeded 500 million. The films "Dumpling Queen," "Gold Hunt: The Game," and "Princess Mononoke" ranked as the top three.

【Ministry of Commerce: "China Trade Excellence Tour" Procurement Intentions Exceed 16.76 Billion Yuan】The Ministry of Commerce recently guided local governments to host "China Trade Excellence Tour" and other production-sales matching events, forming "China Trade Excellence Procurement Teams" to visit local areas for procurement, fully assisting affected foreign trade enterprises in expanding domestic sales. As of May 2, a series of events had been held in 10 key regions, including Shanghai, Sichuan, and Jiangsu. Preliminary statistics show that over 2,400 foreign trade enterprises and 6,500 buyers participated in these events, achieving a total procurement intention of 16.76 billion yuan. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce has guided e-commerce platforms and large retail enterprises to actively help foreign trade enterprises open domestic sales channels. Fifteen major e-commerce platforms have connected with foreign trade enterprises over 26,000 times, assisting over 2,600 enterprises in setting up shop. Nine e-commerce platforms have established online zones, with total sales exceeding 600 million yuan to date. Several large retail enterprises have set up special zones and counters for foreign trade products, opening green channels and significantly reducing product listing times.

【Q1: 2.66 Million South Korean Tourists Visited China, Labour Day Sees Many Following TV Shows to Explore China】Recently, China's scenic spots and cuisine have frequently appeared in South Korean TV dramas and variety shows. Starting May 1, South Korea entered its "Golden Holiday," with many young South Koreans traveling to China to visit locations featured in films and TV shows. Through short videos and media, Zhangjiajie's stunning landscapes have become a must-visit destination for South Korean tourists. Latest data shows that in Q1, the number of South Korean tourists visiting China reached 2.66 million, up 24.1% YoY. Among international routes departing from Incheon, those heading to China saw the largest increase.

【Hong Kong Monetary Authority Intervenes in Market, Spokesperson: Stock-Related Investments and Regional Currencies' Appreciation Against the US Dollar Support the Hong Kong Dollar】On May 3, a spokesperson for the Hong Kong Monetary Authority stated that during the early morning New York trading session, the Hong Kong dollar triggered the strong-side convertibility undertaking of 7.75 HKD per USD under the Linked Exchange Rate System. The HKMA intervened by purchasing US dollars and selling a total of 46.539 billion HKD, increasing the aggregate balance of the banking system to 91.309 billion HKD by next Wednesday.The spokesperson stated that the recent strength of the Hong Kong dollar was mainly due to increased demand for the currency linked to equity investments, which supported the exchange rate. Additionally, the appreciation of several regional currencies against the US dollar in recent days has also contributed to the strengthening of the Hong Kong dollar. The last time the strong-side Convertibility Undertaking was triggered was on October 28, 2020. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will continue to closely monitor market developments to ensure the orderly operation of the Hong Kong dollar market. (RTHK)

[Putin Says Russia-China Relations Have Strategic Significance for Global Stability] Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in a documentary aired on the "Rossiya-1" TV channel on May 4 that he had noticed, since becoming president 25 years ago, that the center of global economic development was shifting towards the Asia-Pacific region. Russia is actively developing relations with China to build a solid foundation for global stability. Putin emphasized that under current conditions, Russia-China relations hold profound strategic significance. "Global turmoil has not eased but is instead spreading. The reliable and stable relationship between Russia and China itself enhances global stability."

[Trump: Will Impose 100% Import Tariff on All Films Made Abroad] US President Donald Trump stated that he has authorized the Department of Commerce and the US Trade Representative to immediately initiate procedures to impose a 100% tariff on all films made abroad that enter the United States.

["Are You Worried About a Recession?" Trump: I Will Ultimately Be Responsible for Everything] Cailian Press, May 4: On May 4 local time, US President Donald Trump, in an interview with NBC, once again criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates, suggesting it was due to "personal animosity." However, Trump stated that he would not remove Powell before his term ends in 2026. During the interview, Trump also downplayed concerns about the possibility of a recession, stating that the US is in a transitional period and that he is not worried about the economy shrinking during his term, though he did not rule out the possibility. When further pressed on whether he would take responsibility for the impact of his tariff policies on the economy, Trump stated that he would ultimately be responsible for everything. Additionally, Trump mentioned in the interview that he did not rule out the possibility of using force to seize Greenland. (CCTV News)

[Trump Reiterates: The Fed Should Lower Interest Rates] US President Donald Trump once again stated on social media that there is no inflation in the US and that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates. He also stated, "Gasoline has just fallen below $1.98 per gallon, the lowest level in years. Grocery prices are down, energy prices are down, and tariffs have brought in billions of dollars in revenue."

[Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged in May at 96.8%] According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in May is 96.8%, with a 3.2% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by June is 63.3%, with a 35.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut and a 1.1% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut.

[Over 15,000 USDA Employees Accept Trump Administration's Voluntary Separation Plan] Records from a briefing between the US Department of Agriculture and congressional staff show that over 15,000 USDA employees have accepted a voluntary separation incentive plan offered by the Trump administration, accounting for approximately 15% of the USDA's total workforce. Previously, to reduce the size of the federal workforce, the Trump administration had offered months of pay and benefits to federal employees who chose to leave.

Australia's final S&P Global Services PMI for April was 51, down from 51.4 in the previous month; the final S&P Global Composite PMI for April was 51, down from 51.4 in the previous month.

[Pakistan Announces Ban on Import Trade with India] The Pakistani government issued a notice on May 4 local time, announcing a ban on the transit of goods originating from India through Pakistan by land, sea, and air, as well as a ban on goods from third countries destined for India transiting through Pakistan.

[India Announces Ban on Import Trade with Pakistan] The Indian Directorate General of Foreign Trade issued a notice at noon on May 3 stating that the country is banning the import of goods originating from or transiting through Pakistan. The ban took effect immediately.

[Spanish Official: It Will Still Take Several Days to Determine the Cause of the Major Blackout] Spanish Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Ecological Transition Teresa Ribera said on May 4 local time that the Spanish government still needs several days to determine the cause of the major blackout on April 28. In an interview with Spain's El País, Ribera said that the investigation is considering "all hypotheses," including the possibility of a cyberattack. She mentioned that the massive blackout may have been caused by an imbalance in the power grid due to malfunctions in some solar panels in south-west China, though it is currently uncertain if this was the cause of the blackout.

[Putin: Reconciliation with Ukraine Is Inevitable, Just a Matter of Time] On May 4, Putin stated that reconciliation with Ukraine is inevitable, just a matter of time.

[After Canada, Australia: This Factor Pushes "Hawkish on the US" to Win Elections] Cailian Press, May 4: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese led the ruling Labor Party to win the 2025 federal election on May 3. Following the Canadian election, the "Trump factor" also influenced the Australian election results, becoming one of the reasons for the Labor Party's surge in support. Both the Liberal Party and the Labor Party acknowledged that the "Trump factor" affected the election outcome. "This is a major blow to Australia's conservative political parties," said Liberal Party spokesperson and Senator James Paterson. "I think [US President Donald Trump] has always been a factor." A similar situation occurred in Canada. Under the influence of the "Trump factor," the Canadian Liberal Party, which advocates a "hawkish stance on the US," achieved a surge in support and ultimately won the election in April. (CCTV News)

[Japanese Government Strongly Opposes US Tariff Policy and Demands Its Repeal] The US measure to impose a 25% tariff on key auto parts took effect on May 3. In response, Japan continues to strongly oppose the US tariff policy. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated on the 3rd that he deeply regrets the US's decision to impose a 25% tariff on key auto parts starting that day and will continue to urge the US to re-examine the relevant tariff measures. Japan is negotiating with the US on tariff measures covering products such as automobiles, steel, and aluminum. There are differences in the positions of the two countries, and no consensus has been reached yet. Additionally, according to a report by NHK on the 3rd, Japanese Minister for Economic Revitalization Ryosei Akazawa returned to Japan after concluding the second round of US-Japan trade negotiations and briefed reporters at the airport. Akazawa expressed Japan's concerns about the US tariffs on automobiles, auto parts, steel, and aluminum, as well as the so-called "reciprocal tariff" policy, and will continue to strongly urge the US to repeal these tariffs. (Cailian Press)

[California Governor: State Continues to Keep "Trade Doors Open" to China] California Governor Gavin Newsom said in an online interview with Japanese media Nikkei Asia on the 2nd that the Trump administration's tariff policies have caused significant harm to California and that the state will continue to keep its "trade doors open" to China. Newsom stated that California has always been a "stable trading partner" of China. The two sides have signed a series of memoranda of understanding for cooperation at the provincial, state, local, and city levels. During his visit to China last year, he extended the ties with China to the national level. He emphasized that California keeps its "doors open" to all trading partners, including China, because global trade is not a zero-sum game, and "we are interdependent on each other."

[Buffett Talks About Addressing the US Fiscal Deficit] Buffett said, "The issue of how to control government revenue and expenditure has never truly been resolved, and this issue has harmed many civilizations." When discussing the enormous US fiscal deficit, he stated that the US fiscal deficit is unsustainable and may become uncontrollable, "and then you just have to give up (hope of controlling it)." He added that he does not want to take on the task of addressing the fiscal deficit and that Congress does not seem committed to reducing the US fiscal deficit. When asked if he is taking measures to address the weakening of the US dollar, Buffett stated that Berkshire Hathaway will hardly do anything to make a quarterly or annual financial report look better. He also emphasized that he would not want to hold any monetary assets that he believes will depreciate to nothing. Buffett also stated that the US fiscal problems scare him, but this is not a problem unique to the US. Regarding increasing yen-denominated assets, he stated that the situation in Japan is different and that the cost of borrowing yen is currently very low.

[Singapore's Ruling People's Action Party Wins 2025 General Election] In the early hours of May 4, the official vote count results released by Singapore's Elections Department showed that Singapore's ruling People's Action Party won the 2025 general election. In this parliamentary election, 209 candidates from 11 political parties and 2 independent candidates competed for 97 parliamentary seats in 33 constituencies. This election is the first time that Singapore's current Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, who took office in 2024, has led the ruling People's Action Party to participate in a parliamentary election. Singapore's parliament operates under a unicameral system, with members elected by voters for a five-year term. The political party that holds a majority of seats in parliament can form the government.

[ECB Vice President de Guindos: ECB Can Be Optimistic About Inflation] European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that the ECB can be optimistic about inflation, that the eurozone will not fall into an economic recession, and that the economic risks emphasized in March are now becoming a reality. The ECB does not set exchange rate targets but will closely monitor them.

[Barclays Delays Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Cut] Following the release of US non-farm payrolls data, Barclays expects the Federal Reserve to implement the next interest rate cut in July, having previously expected it in June. Goldman Sachs made a similar adjustment earlier.

[Goldman Sachs Expects Fed to Implement Next Interest Rate Cut in July] Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to implement the next interest rate cut in July, having previously predicted it in June, due to strong non-farm payrolls data.

["Fed Whisperer": Non-Farm Payrolls Reduce Likelihood of June Rate Cut] "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos stated that the April employment report makes a June rate cut less likely (though June is still far away), as only one more employment report will be released before then. For now, this means the Fed does not need to make any statements about the June meeting next week.

[US April Non-Farm Payrolls Increase More Than Expected, Unemployment Rate Steady] Cailian Press, May 2: US non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, compared to an estimated increase of 138,000 and a previous increase of 228,000. The March data was revised downward. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. 》Click to view details

[Orban: Ukraine's EU Membership Would Lead to Hungary's Economic Bankruptcy] Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated in Budapest on May 2 local time that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused Hungary approximately 20 billion euros in losses over the past three years. Now, Ukraine is asking the EU to support maintaining a military force of 1 million troops, funds that should have been retained within the EU for economic development. Ukraine's EU membership would lead to Hungary's economic bankruptcy.

[Indian Minister: Country and EU Plan to Reach Free Trade Agreement by Year-End] After meeting with EU Trade Policy and Economic Security Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič in Brussels, Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal stated that India and the EU aim to reach a free trade agreement by the end of this year.

[Japanese Finance Minister Says US Debt Could Be Used as a Bargaining Chip]On May 2, Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu stated, "It is a fact that Japan holds US Treasury bonds," and pointed out that "it is only natural to put all matters that could become bargaining chips on the negotiation table for discussion." Regarding the US-Japan tariff negotiations, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru also told the media on the same day that the two sides have not yet reached a consensus, and "Japan's national interests should not be compromised for the sake of reaching an agreement as soon as possible."

[Japanese Prime Minister: No Consensus Yet on Tariffs Between Japan and the US]When evaluating the second round of US-Japan tariff negotiations, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said that the two sides have not yet reached a common position, but Japan is prepared to seek contact points with the US on this issue as soon as possible. Japan still hopes to achieve the "abolition of the tariff system."

[Japan's Trade Talks with the US Expected to Accelerate in May]After concluding the latest round of negotiations in Washington, Japan's chief negotiator said that trade talks between the US and Japan may accelerate in mid-May. Japan's chief negotiator, Ryomasa Akazawa, stated that the second meeting with US officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, was frank and open, although many areas discussed still need to be specified. Akazawa said, "We agreed to arrange a date for the next high-level meeting, aiming to accelerate negotiations starting from mid-May." Akazawa said he reiterated Japan's position that US President Trump's large-scale tariff measures are "extremely regrettable." He said he reiterated Tokyo's request to reconsider the tariff measures.

[Bank of Thailand Deputy Governor: Tariff Impact Expected to Start Showing in H2]On May 2, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand stated that the monetary policy stance is slightly accommodative but not in a full-fledged easing cycle. There is limited room for monetary policy, but the bank is prepared to ease further if necessary. The impact of tariffs is expected to start showing in the second half of the year.

[Eurozone CPI Rose 2.2% YoY in April]The Eurozone's CPI rose 2.2% YoY in April. The Eurozone's CPI rose 0.6% MoM in April; expectations were for a 0.5% increase.

[German Poll: US Tariff Policy Exacerbates Economic Woes, Public Calls for Tough Stance]A recent German poll shows that the German public is generally pessimistic about the country's economic prospects and directly links the current difficulties to the trade protectionist policies pursued by US President Trump. A majority of respondents called on the German government to take a tougher stance against the US to safeguard national interests.

[CICC: Opportunities Outweigh Risks, Foreign Interest in Chinese Assets to Continue Rising]Li Qiusuo, Chief Domestic Strategist at CICC Research, stated that the revaluation of Chinese assets is continuing. The recent global asset volatility triggered by the US's "reciprocal tariff" policy has had a greater impact than during the 2018-2019 trade friction period, but Chinese assets have performed more steadily and outperformed those in the US. Li emphasized that opportunities in Chinese assets outweigh risks, and he expects overseas investors' interest in Chinese assets to gradually rise. Meanwhile, he believes that the performance of A-shares in the second half of the year may outperform that in the first half.

[US Chamber of Commerce Urges White House: Cut Tariffs Now, We're Overwhelmed by Small Business Plea]The US Chamber of Commerce sent a letter to the Trump administration urging it to immediately implement a "tariff exemption mechanism" to prevent the US economy from slipping into recession and causing "irreparable harm" to small businesses. However, the White House rejected their request. The US Chamber of Commerce represents over 3 million businesses and organizations nationwide and is one of the largest and most influential business organizations globally. The organization called on the Trump administration's key trade officials to eliminate tariffs on all small business importers and on all products that "cannot be produced in the US" or are unavailable domestically. Suzanne Clark, President and CEO of the US Chamber of Commerce, said she wrote to the White House because "we are overwhelmed by small business pleas," with business owners "fearing for their survival." (CCTV News)

[EU Official: EU May Increase Imports from the US to Ease Trade Conflict]EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič stated that the EU may consider increasing imports of US goods by approximately $56.5 billion to narrow the US trade deficit and reduce the risk of the US imposing additional tariffs. Šefčovič is leading the EU's tariff negotiations with the Trump administration. He said that considering US service exports to the EU, the US trade deficit with the EU's 27 member states is approximately $56.5 billion annually. He believes that this gap could be eliminated by increasing EU imports of US goods, thereby easing trade conflicts.

[US White House Pushes for Peace Agreement Between DRC and Rwanda, Offering Minerals for Stability]According to Peter Brookes, a senior advisor for African affairs in the Trump administration, the US is pushing for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda to sign a peace agreement at the White House within the next two months. At the same time, a bilateral mineral cooperation agreement will also be reached, expected to bring billions of dollars in Western investment to the region. Brookes said, "On the day we sign the peace agreement at the White House, we will also sign a mineral agreement with the DRC. For Rwanda, a similarly sized but different-natured package agreement will also be signed on the same day." This US-backed peace initiative comes as Rwanda-backed M23 rebels make significant gains in eastern Congo. Rwanda denies supporting the armed group. According to the diplomatic process, Rwanda and the DRC are expected to submit their respective draft peace agreements on Friday. Brookes said that in mid-May, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with the foreign ministers of Rwanda and the DRC in Washington to finalize the text of the peace agreement. (Caijing)

[Mexico Expands Ports to Strengthen Trade Ties with China]Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is overseeing a major expansion of the Port of Manzanillo, Mexico's largest and most strategic seaport, to transform Mexico into Latin America's leading maritime hub. This move aims to attract more Chinese trade in response to changes in the global trade landscape. (Yuyuantantian)

Industry/Major Enterprise Updates

[EU Steel Exports to the US Plummet by 1 Million mt, Costing €2 Billion]Since the US imposed a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum on March 12, the EU steel industry has suffered a significant blow. Meanwhile, US domestic consumers have also had to "foot the bill" for this policy. Axel Eggert, Director General of the European Steel Association, stated that steel exports to the US have decreased by 1 million mt, resulting in losses of approximately €2 billion. This policy will also have a significant impact on US steel users. The US steel industry is currently unable to produce a large number of different grades of products and relies on EU steel imports. If US steel users cannot procure these products from the domestic market, their procurement costs will increase by 25%. (CCTV Finance)

[Major Oil Producers to Increase Production for Two Consecutive Months, Exceeding Expectations]OPEC issued a statement on Saturday, stating that eight OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries have decided to increase daily production by 411,000 barrels starting from June this year, marking the second consecutive month of production increases above expectations. Representatives from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman held an online meeting on the same day to discuss the situation and prospects of the international oil market. According to the statement, given the current robust market fundamentals and low oil inventories, the eight countries decided to adjust production. Meanwhile, the eight countries will flexibly adjust the pace of production increases based on market conditions to maintain oil market stability. The eight OPEC oil-producing countries will hold a meeting on June 1 to determine production levels for July. (Webstock Inc.)

[Saudi Arabia Warns OPEC+ Members: Increase Supply Unless They Improve Compliance]OPEC+ delegates said that Saudi Arabia has warned member countries with overproduction that the organization will further increase supply unless they improve compliance. On Saturday, OPEC agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, the second consecutive month of production increases, aimed at punishing countries such as Kazakhstan and Iraq that have cheated on their quotas. OPEC+ delegates said that Saudi Arabia is considering gradually phasing out the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day set earlier at a similar pace.

[Barclays and ING Lower Brent Crude Oil Forecasts After OPEC+ Decision]Barclays lowered its Brent crude oil forecast for 2025 by $4 to $66 per barrel and its 2026 forecast by $2 to $60 per barrel, while ING expects the average price of Brent crude oil this year to fall from $70 to $65. (FX678)

[CRIC: Real Estate Market Stabilizes in Q1, Used Home Sales in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou Increase 17% YoY]On May 4, CRIC Real Estate stated that the real estate market stabilized in the first quarter, with increased sales and stable prices in the used home markets of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou. Sales increased 17% YoY, with demand for high-end and luxury homes warming up and prices for entry-level homes stabilizing. Used homes, as a leading indicator for new homes, have helped repair market expectations and accelerate the overall market's stabilization. As a "barometer" for the new home market, the used home market, on the one hand, has characteristics of a leading indicator and is more sensitive to policies; on the other hand, stable used home prices also help stabilize expectations for the new home market.

[Yunnan: 32.194 Billion Yuan in Housing Provident Fund Loans Issued in 2024]According to "Yunnan Release," in 2024, Yunnan Province processed 62,300 housing provident fund loan applications and issued 32.194 billion yuan in loans. The province also had 198,800 rent extraction applications, with a total extraction amount of 2.854 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 31.48% and 31.04%, respectively, compared to 2023.

[Shell Reportedly Exploring Potential Acquisition of BP]According to reports, Shell is working with advisors to evaluate a potential acquisition of BP and is waiting for further declines in share prices and oil prices before deciding whether to make an offer. Sources familiar with the matter said that the oil giant has been seriously discussing the feasibility and merits of acquiring BP with advisors in recent weeks. The sources requested anonymity as the information is not public. According to the sources, any final decision may depend on whether BP's share price continues to fall. Due to its transformation plan failing to gain investor approval and a sharp drop in oil prices, BP's share price has fallen by nearly one-third in the past 12 months. Some sources said that Shell may also be waiting for BP to make the first move or observing other potential bidders taking the lead, with current preparations preparing it for such scenarios.

[Tariff Policy to Drive Up Prices of New and Used Cars in the US, Repair Costs to Also Increase]The New York Times reported on the 3rd that the US's 25% tariff on imported auto parts could significantly raise the prices of new and used cars, as well as repair and insurance costs. The report stated that imposing tariffs on imported auto parts would have broad impacts, as even cars manufactured in the US often have engines, transmissions, batteries, and other components produced in other countries. Trump's tariff policy has already driven up new car prices as consumers rushed to dealerships to buy cars before the policy took effect. The tariff policy has also affected the used car market, as more people are seeking affordable alternatives to new cars, increasing demand and prices. Tariffs on auto parts are expected to also increase repair costs and insurance premiums, as replacing auto parts will become more expensive.Rising car prices will exacerbate inflation.

【Data shows Shenzhen's pre-owned home transactions in April surged 33.5% YoY, far exceeding the 5,000-unit threshold】According to data from Leyoujia Research Center, Shenzhen recorded 6,597 pre-owned home transactions in April, down 14.4% MoM but up 33.5% YoY, far exceeding the 5,000-unit threshold and remaining at a relatively high level. The number of pre-owned residential properties under contract in Shenzhen reached 5,733 units in April, down 5.7% MoM but up 37.4% YoY. For new homes, the total number of new residential properties under contract in Shenzhen was 3,695 units in April, up 28.7% YoY, still at a relatively high level. As of the end of April, the inventory of new pre-sold residential properties in Shenzhen stood at 28,062 units. Based on the average monthly sales rate of new pre-sold residential properties over the past 12 months (3,494 units per month), the absorption period is 8.0 months.

【China's offshore heavy oil field developed remotely using unmanned platforms begins production】As an offshore heavy oil field developed remotely using unmanned platforms, the Panyu 11-12 platform of CNOOC Shenzhen Branch successfully commenced production in the eastern South China Sea on May 3. The Panyu 11-12 platform is the core facility of the joint development project in the Panyu 10/11 block, located approximately 200 kilometers southeast of Shenzhen in waters about 114 meters deep. Standing 150.8 meters tall and weighing about 7,000 tons, the platform has achieved new breakthroughs in "typhoon production mode," remote production resumption, and complex crude oil processing. It features intelligent oil extraction, intelligent equipment operation and maintenance, and intelligent security functions. Compared to traditional development models, the unmanned design not only reduces engineering investment but also saves over 10 million yuan in operation and maintenance costs annually.

【Chemical giant warns of US tariff policy's impact on global market sentiment】German chemical giant BASF Group issued a warning on May 2 regarding the US's recent tariff hikes. The group stated that while the direct business impact remains "manageable" for now, the US's unilateral measures are undermining the stability of the industry chain, leading to a decline in customer confidence and increased order volatility. BASF CFO Dirk Elvermann pointed out during the release of the group's Q1 financial report that the volatility of tariff policies, the unpredictability of further US decisions, and potential retaliatory measures from other trading partners are impacting global market sentiment. He revealed that the group's economic environment in Q1 was "overall weaker than expected," with external risks facing enterprises "much higher than judged at the beginning of the year."

【Nvidia criticizes Anthropic's support for the "AI Diffusion Export Control Framework": The US cannot manipulate regulators to achieve victory in the AI field】In response to Anthropic, the parent company of AI model Claude and a leading US AI company, publicly supporting the US government's strengthening of AI chip export controls on China through the "AI Diffusion Export Control Framework," Nvidia officially issued a statement criticizing the move on May 3. Nvidia stated, "China accounts for half of the world's AI researchers, with capable AI experts at every layer of the AI stack. The US cannot manipulate regulators to achieve victory in the AI field. US enterprises should focus on innovation and meeting challenges, not fabricating absurd rumors." The "AI Diffusion Export Control Framework" is an export control policy urgently introduced by former US President Biden before leaving office, aiming to further tighten AI chip exports to China. It was released on January 13, 2025. Trump did not directly overturn this policy after taking office. According to the policy process, exporters, re-exporters, and transshippers are required to comply with the agreement's requirements after May 15.

【New policy for home purchase subsidies in Suzhou: From May 1 to June 30, buyers of newly built commercial homes can enjoy a 0.5% subsidy of the purchase contract amount】According to a May 2 message from the WeChat official account "Suzhou Release," to meet residents' rigid and improvement-oriented housing needs, a home purchase subsidy policy will be implemented across Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, during the "Suzhou Heartfelt Home Purchase Season" event (from May 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025). Home-buying families purchasing newly built commercial homes in Suzhou (excluding talent housing, resettlement housing, etc.) can enjoy a 0.5% subsidy of the purchase contract amount (based on the amount of the online-signed and recorded contract). After the home-buying family obtains the real estate ownership certificate, the county-level city (district) where the new home is located will be responsible for issuing the subsidy according to procedures.

【Institution: US imports of refined copper hit a record high in April】According to IHS Markit's high-frequency shipping data, refined copper shipments to the US exceeded 170,000 tons in April, reaching the highest level since data records began in 2014. Some institutions claim that if this data is confirmed by the trade data disclosed by the US government, it will surpass the previous record high of approximately 142,000 tons set in November 2001.

【Beijing's pre-owned residential property transactions reached 15,569 units in April, up 16.59% YoY】Data from the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's website shows that 15,569 pre-owned residential properties were under contract in Beijing in April, down 19.05% MoM but up 16.59% YoY. With the pent-up demand from the Chinese New Year and school enrollment needs concentrated in March, the activity level of Beijing's pre-owned housing market declined in April, but the number of pre-owned home transactions still remained at a certain level.

【2025 Shanghai Auto Show closes on May 2, attracting 1.01 million domestic and international visitors】On May 2, the official Weibo account of the Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition introduced that the 2025 Shanghai Auto Show closed at the National Exhibition and Convention Center (Shanghai) on May 2. A total of 1,366 vehicles were exhibited at this auto show, with over 70% being NEVs and 163 debut vehicles. It attracted 1.01 million domestic and international visitors. According to incomplete statistics, overseas visitors came from 97 countries and regions, totaling 63,000 (including over 12,000 overseas dealers).

【Ukrainian PM: Follow-up technical documents for the Ukraine-US mineral agreement do not require parliamentary approval】Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated that the follow-up technical documents for the agreement on establishing the Ukraine-US Reconstruction Investment Fund (i.e., the Ukraine-US mineral agreement) will not be at the intergovernmental level but at the inter-agency level. These follow-up agreements will be of an implementation nature (commercial or executive agreements) and will be signed by Ukrainian agencies and the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), thus not requiring parliamentary approval.

【Ukrainian parliament to consider the Ukraine-US mineral agreement on May 8】The Verkhovna Rada (parliament) of Ukraine will hold a special session on May 8 to consider and vote on the mineral resources agreement reached with the US. The US and Ukraine signed an agreement on April 30 to establish the US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, known as the US-Ukraine mineral agreement.

【Chery Group sold over 200,000 vehicles in April, up 10.3% YoY】Chery Group released a sales bulletin stating that it sold 200,760 vehicles in April, up 10.3% YoY. Among them, Chery Automobile Co., Ltd. sold 184,850 vehicles, up 5.2% YoY; the group sold 61,223 NEVs, up 85.5% YoY; and exported 87,738 vehicles. From January to April, Chery Group sold a cumulative 820,785 vehicles, up 15.3% YoY; exported a cumulative 343,203 vehicles; and sold a cumulative 224,629 NEVs, up 140.7% YoY.

【ExxonMobil's Q1 adjusted EPS meets market expectations】ExxonMobil Corporation reported an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.76 for the first quarter, compared to $2.06 in the same period last year and an estimate of $1.76. First-quarter profit was $7.7 billion, compared to $8.2 billion in the first quarter of 2024. It announced a second-quarter dividend of $0.99 per share. ExxonMobil returned $9.1 billion to shareholders in the first quarter, including $4.8 billion in share buybacks. Cash flow from operating activities in the first quarter was $13 billion, with free cash flow of $8.8 billion.

【Chevron's Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.18 exceeds market expectations】Chevron reported an adjusted EPS of $2.18 for the first quarter, compared to $2.93 in the same period last year and a market estimate of $2.11. Chevron's share buybacks in the first quarter amounted to $3.9 billion. Chevron earned $3.5 billion in the first quarter, with adjusted earnings of $3.8 billion. The company returned $6.9 billion in cash to shareholders this quarter, including $3.9 billion in share buybacks and $3 billion in dividends.

【South Korea's top five automakers' April sales increased 2.4% YoY】Combining the sales performance released by South Korea's top five automakers on May 2, the global total sales of these five automakers increased 2.4% YoY to 688,778 units in April this year. By brand, Hyundai Motor's global sales were 353,338 units, up 2% YoY; Kia sold 274,437 units, up 5% YoY; GM Korea's sales decreased 6.3% to 41,644 units; Renault Korea's sales decreased 1.4% to 10,427 units; and KGM (formerly SsangYong Motor) decreased 8.4% to 8,932 units.

【Volkswagen Skoda Auto's Q1 sales revenue reached 7.26 billion euros, up 10.4% YoY】Volkswagen Skoda Auto's sales revenue reached 7.26 billion euros in the first quarter, up 10.4% YoY; operating profit was 546 million euros, up 2.1% YoY. Volkswagen Skoda Auto delivered 238,600 vehicles in the first quarter, up 8.2% YoY; total sales of battery electric and plug-in hybrid models increased 114% to 36,900 units.

【Bank of America: Gold experiences weekly outflows for the first time since January】Citing EPFR data, Bank of America stated that as of last Wednesday, the US stock market saw outflows of $8.9 billion, while Japanese and European stock markets experienced inflows. US bond funds saw outflows of $4.5 billion, the largest since December 2023. Gold experienced weekly outflows for the first time since January.

【Land auction enthusiasm remains high in April: Real estate firms bet on core cities, with the average premium rate for residential land in 22 cities rising to 28%】In April's land market, Hangzhou stood out with multiple plots achieving premium rates exceeding 50%. Not just Hangzhou, but Nanjing, Suzhou, Chongqing, Chengdu, and other cities also saw high-premium transactions of residential land in April. Overall, the enthusiasm for land auctions in key cities continued in April. Data from China Index Academy shows that from April 1 to 22, the average premium rate for residential land in 22 key cities was 28%, reaching a new high since October 2023. Additionally, according to data from E-House China R&D Institute, as of April 27, the premium rate for residential land in 25 key cities nationwide in the first four months of the year was 19%, an increase of 13 percentage points compared to the 6% premium rate for the whole of last year.

【A-share listed companies' dividend payouts and share buybacks hit new highs in 2024】Against the backdrop of the new "National Nine Articles" vigorously promoting dividend payouts, dividend payouts and share buybacks reached new highs in 2024, with increased returns to investors. Specifically, 3,472 Shanghai and Shenzhen-listed companies declared cash dividends in their annual reports for 2024, totaling 1.66 trillion yuan. Combining with early interim dividends, the total dividend payout for the 2024 fiscal year was 2.39 trillion yuan, up 7.2% YoY, with the CSI 300 dividend yield at 3.59%, both reaching record highs. State-owned enterprises continued to play a leading role in dividend payouts. Furthermore, listed companies' enthusiasm for share buybacks also increased, with 1,470 buyback plans disclosed in 2024, totaling 212.3 billion yuan, which were 2.1 times and 1.5 times those of 2023, respectively.

【US light vehicle sales to drop by over 640,000 units this year due to tariff impact】Stephanie Brinley, Associate Director and Principal Automotive Analyst at S&P Global Mobility's Automotive Intelligence team, stated that the uncertainty brought about by the US government's tariff policies is seriously affecting manufacturers' long-term planning and will lead to consumers bearing more costs.S&P Global Ratings expects that, affected by tariff policies, US light vehicle sales will decline by more than 640,000 units in 2025. For manufacturers, the practical challenges of adjusting the industry chain cannot be overlooked. Whether it involves relocating factories or replacing parts, these tasks cannot be accomplished within a year, making the so-called "reshoring of industries to the US" far from easy. (CCTV International News)

※ Outlook for Key Data and Macro Events This Week

May 6: Data to be released include China's Caixin Services PMI for April, the UK's final SPGI Services PMI for April, the Global Leading Indicator for Turning Points in the Industrial Production Cycle for April (released at irregular intervals), Canada's trade balance for March, Canada's IVEY seasonally adjusted PMI for April, the Eurozone's final Services PMI for April, the Eurozone's month-on-month PPI for March, the US's trade balance for March, and the US's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for April. Additionally, attention should be paid to: The European Central Bank will hold its Central Bank Forum until May 7. On May 6, the Dalian Commodity Exchange will have a call auction for all contracts from 08:55 to 09:00 AM, and night session trading will resume that evening. The Seoul Stock Exchange will be closed on May 6 for Children's Day.

May 7: Data to be released include Australia's AIG Performance of Manufacturing Index for April, New Zealand's unemployment rate for Q1, New Zealand's labor force participation rate for Q1, China's foreign exchange reserves for April, Russia's SPGI Services PMI for April, France's trade balance for March, the Eurozone's month-on-month retail sales for March, the Eurozone's year-on-year retail sales for March, and Canada's month-on-month leading indicators for April. Additionally, attention should be paid to: The EIA will release its Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook Report.

May 8: Data to be released include the upper and lower limits of the US federal funds rate target for May, the base rate for Hong Kong, China, on May 8, Germany's month-on-month seasonally adjusted industrial output for March, Germany's year-on-year working-day adjusted industrial output for March, Germany's month-on-month seasonally adjusted exports for March, the UK's central bank benchmark interest rate for May, the US's initial jobless claims for the week ending May 3, the US's continuing jobless claims for the week ending April 26, the final month-on-month wholesale inventories for March in the US, the US's 1-year inflation expectations from the New York Fed for April, the US's 3-year inflation expectations from the New York Fed for April, etc. Additionally, attention should be paid to: The Fed's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision; Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference; the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision.

May 9: Data to be released include China's trade balance for April, China's year-on-year export growth for April, China's year-on-year import growth for April, Switzerland's consumer confidence index for Q2 (seasonally adjusted), China's year-on-year M2 money supply growth for April, China's year-to-date total social financing for April, China's year-to-date new RMB loans for April, Canada's change in employment for April, and Canada's unemployment rate for April. Additionally, attention should be paid to: Bank of England Governor Bailey will deliver a speech; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a keynote speech; Fed Governor Kugler will deliver a speech; 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will deliver a speech; Fed Governor Barr will deliver a speech; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Waller will deliver speeches.

May 10: Data to be released include China's year-on-year CPI for April and China's year-on-year PPI for April. Additionally, attention should be paid to: 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hamrick, and Fed Governor Bowman will deliver speeches at a panel meeting.