(Pending) Release of SMM Metal Production Data for April 2025

Overview of Base Metal Production in April 2025

Copper Cathode

Aluminum

Alumina

Overseas Aluminum Production

According to SMM statistics, the total overseas aluminum production in April 2025 increased by 2.7% YoY, with the monthly average operating rate reaching 88.2%, down 1.1% MoM and up slightly by 0.3% YoY.

The growth in overseas aluminum production this month was mainly driven by increased output from resumed production. According to Rusal's 2024 annual report, the Taishet plant resumed full production at the end of 2024, with an annual output reaching an operating capacity of 428,000 mt. However, Rusal began implementing production cuts at the end of 2024 due to overseas sanctions pressure and high costs, reducing production by 10% at seven aluminum smelters in Siberia (with a total capacity of 3.933 million mt). The timeline for subsequent production resumptions will depend on market conditions. Despite the production cuts, Rusal still achieved a 3.7% YoY increase in aluminum production for the full year of 2024, with a total output of 3.992 million mt.

It is expected that the expanded capacity of Vedanta Balco's plant in India will come online this quarter. The plant plans to gradually commission new capacity from Q2 2025, with a total capacity of 1.015 million mt after expansion. If commissioned smoothly, production ramp-up is expected to be completed by Q1 2026.

Looking ahead to next month, overseas aluminum production is expected to increase by 2.8% YoY, with a capacity utilization rate of approximately 88.4%, up 0.2% MoM.

Overseas Metallurgical-Grade Alumina

According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production in April 2025 increased by 3.8% YoY, with the average operating rate of overseas alumina refineries reaching 82.2%, up 0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY.

The increase in alumina production this month was mainly due to production ramp-ups at PT Borneo Alumindo Prima and PT Borneo Alumina Indonesia in Indonesia. PT Borneo Alumindo Prima, whose major shareholder is Jinjiang Group, commenced production in January 2025 with a capacity of 1 million mt and is expected to reach full production in Q2. PT Borneo Alumina Indonesia, whose major shareholders are Inalum and PT Antam, has a capacity of 1 million mt and is currently near full production.

Additionally, Vedanta's FY25 Q4 report indicated that due to bauxite supply disruptions, its Lanjigarh alumina refinery produced 431,000 mt in the January-March 2025 quarter, down 11% YoY. However, the issue was resolved by the end of the quarter, and production is expected to return to normal in Q2.

Looking ahead to next month, SMM expects overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production to increase by 3.9% YoY, with an operating rate expected to reach 82.4%, up 0.2% MoM and 3.0% YoY.

Primary Lead

Secondary Lead

In April 2025, the production of secondary crude lead decreased by 4.56% MoM but increased by 11.04% YoY. The production of secondary refined lead decreased by 4.26% MoM but increased by 7.46% YoY.

In March, the price center of lead ran relatively high, and secondary lead smelters achieved good profitability, leading to high production enthusiasm. Coupled with the commissioning of large new capacities, production resumptions at large and medium-sized smelters, and production ramp-ups, secondary lead production in March reached a nearly 1.5-year high. April is the traditional consumption off-season for lead-acid batteries, with downstream battery producers showing low willingness to purchase lead ingots. Additionally, the low scrap volume in the scrap battery market, combined with the high operating rate of secondary lead smelters, exacerbated the sentiment of scrap battery suppliers holding back cargoes. Tight raw material supply, high costs, and low selling prices of finished products led to significant operational pressures for secondary lead smelters, resulting in widespread production cuts and suspensions by month-end. Therefore, April's production declined significantly compared to March.

In May, downstream battery producers generally have plans for holiday shutdowns during the Labour Day holiday, leading to weak demand for lead ingot purchases. Most secondary lead smelters that have cut or suspended production have indicated that they need to observe market conditions in May before deciding whether to resume normal production. SMM expects that secondary lead production in May may remain stable or decline slightly.

Refined Zinc

Refined Tin

Refined Nickel

Nickel Pig Iron (NPI)

Indonesian NPI

Nickel Sulphate

Battery-Grade Manganese Sulphate

Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide (EMD)

Manganese Tetroxide (Mn3O4)

High-Carbon Ferrochrome

Stainless Steel

Electrolytic Manganese (EMM)

Ferrosilicon Manganese (SiMn) Alloy

Silicon Metal

Polysilicon

PV Modules

Solar Cells

PV Film

In April, the total production schedule for the PV film industry increased by 25.38% MoM. The main reason was the installation rush, which drove a surge in demand for distributed PV, leading to an increase in module production schedules. Under the strong boost from the demand side, PV film production increased. However, as the installation rush nears its end and demand slows down, PV film production is expected to decline in May.

PV-Grade EVA

In April, the production schedule for PV-grade EVA increased by 15.17% MoM. The reasons include the conversion of some petrochemical companies to produce PV materials and the boost in demand driven by the dual policy nodes of "April 30" and "May 31," leading to an increase in EVA PV material production. According to SMM, demand is expected to decline in May, with some petrochemical companies expected to switch production or undergo maintenance. Therefore, PV-grade EVA production is expected to decline in May.

PV Glass

In April, the monthly domestic PV glass production in China decreased slightly by 1.39% MoM compared to March. The number of production days for domestic PV glass in April decreased by 1 day, and module demand remained high relative to glass production schedules, enhancing the willingness to produce glass. Meanwhile, some furnaces that started production in March in the early stage slightly increased output, and some blocked production capacities resumed, leading to a continuous increase in overall production in April. However, due to the decrease in module demand and the decline in module prices, the growth rate of domestic PV glass production in China will slow down in May.

DMC

In April, the domestic silicone DMC production in China decreased by 8.04% MoM and 7.25% YoY compared to March. The silicone market in China deteriorated rapidly in April, with prices falling sharply. The willingness to produce among monomer enterprises remained low, and large monomer enterprises entered maintenance in both April and May. However, due to the end of the maintenance period for some monomer enterprises, some production lines began to resume operation, and the production decline was less severe than in the previous period. It is expected that the operating rate will still decline slightly in May, but the decline will narrow.

Magnesium Ingot

Magnesium Alloy

Magnesium Powder

Titanium Dioxide

Sponge Titanium

Light Rare Earths

Medium-Heavy Rare Earths

NdFeB

Molybdenum Concentrate

Ferromolybdenum

Ammonium Paratungstate

Silver

Silver Nitrate

Antimony Ingot

According to SMM's assessment, the total production of antimony ingots (including antimony ingots, crude antimony conversion, antimony cathode, etc.) in China in April 2025 decreased significantly by approximately 10% MoM compared to the previous month. Specifically, among the 33 surveyed companies assessed by SMM, 8 companies halted production, a decrease of 4 compared to the previous month; 21 companies experienced production reductions, an increase of 4 compared to the previous month; and 4 companies maintained relatively normal production levels, unchanged from the previous month. From the perspective of antimony ingot production, antimony production in April declined again after rebounding in March. Many market participants consider this a normal phenomenon, as many overseas ore sources are still unable to enter the domestic market, and mining operations in northern regions are not progressing well, with many mines still in the process of gradual resumption or remaining suspended. Currently, many market participants indicate that the overall domestic raw material supply remains tight, and the sentiment of antimony ore suppliers to hold back cargoes is still evident. Many companies state that their current inventory levels are still in a destocking phase. If the domestic supply of mine raw materials increases to alleviate the raw material shortage, production may resume a recovery trend in May; otherwise, the market inventory destocking will continue. Market participants expect that the national antimony ingot production in May 2025 is likely to decrease compared to April, although a stable production level is also possible. However, based on the current situation, the possibility of an increase is not significant.

Note: Since May 2022, SMM has been publishing the assessed production of SMM national antimony ingots (including antimony ingots, crude antimony conversion, antimony cathode, etc.). Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate of the antimony industry, SMM has surveyed a total of 33 antimony ingot producers, distributed across 8 provinces in China, with a total sample capacity exceeding 20,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.

Sodium Pyroantimonate

According to SMM's assessment, the production of first-grade sodium pyroantimonate in China in April 2025 decreased by approximately 1.8% MoM compared to the previous month, remaining basically stable after a significant rebound in the previous month. Many market participants consider this a normal phenomenon, as antimony prices began to rise continuously from the end of February, and orders from glass factories also started to increase. The production increase of many companies in March was related to receiving more orders, and this situation continued into April, which is reasonable. From other detailed data, among SMM's 11 surveyed companies, 2 were in a state of shutdown or commissioning in April, 4 sodium pyroantimonate producers experienced production growth, and 2 producers experienced a significant decline in production, leading to an overall basically stable production level with a slight decline. Market participants expect that the national sodium pyroantimonate production in May is unlikely to continue declining compared to April, with a greater possibility of remaining stable or increasing slightly.

Note: Since July 2023, SMM has been publishing the assessed production of SMM national sodium pyroantimonate. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate of the antimony industry, SMM has surveyed a total of 11 sodium pyroantimonate producers, distributed across 5 provinces in China, with a total sample capacity exceeding 75,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of 99%.

Refined Bismuth

According to SMM's assessment, the refined bismuth production in China in April 2025 increased by approximately 2.4% MoM compared to March. After rebounding in the previous month, bismuth production entered a stable phase overall. Market participants indicate that the long Chinese New Year holiday in February led to many enterprises halting production, causing bismuth production to decline to a low point. Therefore, production rebounded in March, but currently, due to tight raw material supply, the stagnation in production growth is reasonable. From the production situation of companies, some companies are still in the process of equipment maintenance, and the production situations of other companies have not changed significantly, resulting in relatively stable overall domestic production in April. From detailed data, among SMM's 24 surveyed companies, 2 companies experienced a significant increase in production in April, 2 companies experienced some decline in production, and the production levels of the remaining companies remained largely unchanged. Many market participants expect that the production of national bismuth producers will continue to stabilize in May. Although there will be a long Labour Day holiday, the impact is expected to be limited. The possibility of stable or slightly declining refined bismuth production is high, but considering that raw materials may still be tight, it is not ruled out that production may decline significantly again.

Note: Since October 2022, SMM has been publishing the assessed production of SMM national refined bismuth. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate of the bismuth industry, SMM has surveyed a total of 24 refined bismuth producers, distributed across 8 provinces in China, with a total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.

Lithium Carbonate

Lithium Hydroxide

Cobalt Sulphate

Co3O4

Ternary Cathode Precursor

Ternary Cathode Material

Iron Phosphate

LFP

In April, the domestic iron phosphate market exhibited a "high YoY growth, stable MoM" operational trend, with production increasing by 60% YoY and remaining stable MoM. On the supply side, multiple factors intertwined, with some iron phosphate enterprises experiencing a phased reduction in supply due to maintenance plans. Meanwhile, orders from integrated large factories declined, leading to a corresponding decrease in self-supplied iron phosphate production. However, enterprises with price advantages significantly increased their order volumes and production due to market competitiveness.Under the dynamic balance between production cuts and increases, the supply of iron phosphate ultimately remained flat compared to the previous month. On the demand side, there was no significant growth in the downstream LFP market demand in April, and the overall procurement demand remained stable, failing to provide a strong boost to the iron phosphate market. On the cost side, the price of industrial-grade MAP remained high in the first half of April, only pulling back slightly in the second half. Despite the reduction in raw material costs, the current price of iron phosphate still struggles to fully cover the costs. Coupled with the ongoing stalemate in the market price war, the profit margins of enterprises have been continuously compressed, prompting some iron phosphate producers to plan maintenance or production cuts for their production lines in May. In May, the increase in iron phosphate production schedules is expected to significantly slow down, with the increase mainly concentrated among enterprises with new capacity and producers with price or resource advantages. It is anticipated that iron phosphate production will rise by 4% MoM and 40% YoY in May, potentially further reshaping the market competition landscape.

LCO

LMO

*Survey Methodology

The SMM production survey is conducted by professional analysts through methods such as phone calls and on-site surveys, regularly tracking Chinese metal producers on a monthly basis and issuing the China Metal Production Report accordingly.

During the survey process, the basic coverage ratio of the sample is ensured and continuously expanded. Meanwhile, details such as capacity scale, geographical distribution, and enterprise nature are considered to reasonably select and allocate samples, ensuring that each sub-item of data is representative.

The report is released through official channels such as the SMM official website (www.smm.cn), WeChat subscription account (SMM Today), and mobile website (m.smm.cn) at the end of each month.

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